Try the model
OSU

Ohio State 28 at Illinois 3

ILL
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:13 · Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Dionte Taylor
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Pregame prior−4.3Home team on offense−50.6Score differential−46.7Garbage-time factor−18.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.6
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 5:33: Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo Allison — ILL win probability +4.1 pts (now 24%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 0:50: J.T. Barrett 6 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:57: Ezekiel Elliott 1 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:31: Ezekiel Elliott run for 11 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST down — OSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:52: Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 2 yds to the Illin 36 — ILL win probability +3.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 11OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 12:06ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:37OSU 4th & 7 at ILL 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:39ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:05ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:57OSU 4th & 5 at OSU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:12ILL 4th & 4 at OSU 27, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.3%−0.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:46OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 44, up 4
    Close callPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:04ILL 4th & 19 at ILL 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−1.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:43ILL 4th & 11 at OSU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:22OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 41, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:45ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:09OSU 4th & 11 at ILL 38, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.5%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    73.8%
    38% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:16OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 34, up 11
    Close callPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:55ILL 4th & 10 at OSU 18, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.2%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−4.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:53ILL 4th & 3 at OSU 13, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−0.5
    85% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−6.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:13OSU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.4%−1.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:39ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 45, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:52OSU 4th & 22 at ILL 45, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−1.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:13ILL 4th & 12 at OSU 29, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:16OSU 4th & 7 at ILL 37, up 25
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 3:43OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:50OSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:57OSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:47OSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:4512% → 13%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
11.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
11.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 6 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+4
12.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 4 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
12.4%
Wes Lunt sacked by Joey Bosa and Raekwon McMillan for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+1
12.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 1 yd to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
12.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Andrew DavisSimilar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
12.9%
Frain, Ryan punt 39 yards to the OHIOST29, Marshall, Jalin return 4 yards to the OHIOST33, PENALTY OHIOST illegal formation off-setting, PENALTY OHIOST Holding (McLaurin, Terry) off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
12.9%
Ryan Frain punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2MISSED FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 5:2187% → 85%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
12.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+9
13.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 9 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
13.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+6
13.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+18
13.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 18 yds to the Illin 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
13.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+9
14.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the Illin 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
14.5%
J.T. Barrett run for no gain to the Illin 1Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
14.7%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Marcus Baugh) to the Illin 6Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
14.8%
J.T. Barrett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 7Similar
Q1 6:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
15.4%
Sean Nuernberger 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5316% → 16%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
15.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
15.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 6 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+11
15.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 11 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
16.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 1 yd to the Illin 38Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
16.7%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
16.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+11
16.3%
TEAM punt 11 yards to the Illin 49, blocked by Curtis SamuelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 0:4984% → 86%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
16.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+22
16.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 22 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
14.1%
Michael Thomas 24 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:2115% → 15%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
14.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 1 yd to the Illin 22Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+13
15.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 13 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
15.3%
Josh Ferguson run for 8 yds to the Illin 43 OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tommy Schutt) declinedSimilar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-1
15.9%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
15.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
15.1%
Ryan Frain punt for 36 yds, downed at the OhSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 3:0185% → 84%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
15.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+1
14.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 1 yd to the OhSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
15.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-5
15.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 32Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+5
16.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 5 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+12
15.9%
Cameron Johnston punt for 44 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 12 yds to the Illin 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:3916% → 20%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
16.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Nathan Echard for 7 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
17.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 4 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+25
17.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 25 yds to the OhSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
18.2%
Desmond Cain run for 5 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+1
18.5%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the OhSt 27Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
18.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+46
20.4%
Taylor Zalewski 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1881% → 81%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
18.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
18.4%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
18.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
19.4%
Cameron Johnston punt for 46 yds, fair catch by V'Angelo Bentley at the Illin 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3620% → 20%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
20.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+27
20.0%
Josh Ferguson run for 27 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
20.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Andrew Davis) to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-4
20.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 28Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 19
OWN 28
0
20.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete ILLINOIS Penalty, Illegal Shift (Geronimo Allison) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 19
OWN 28
0
19.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Illin 28Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 19
OWN 28
0
19.6%
Ryan Frain punt for 72 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:1580% → 80%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
20.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 12 yds to the OhSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
19.9%
J.T. Barrett run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 31 J.T. Barrett fumbled, forced by James Crawford, recovered by IllinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11MISSED FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5024% → 21%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
24.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-1
24.0%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 32Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 11
OPP 32
0
23.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Dionte TaylorSimilar
Q2 4:43
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+50
21.2%
Taylor Zalewski 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1680% → 79%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
20.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 7 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
19.8%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+2
20.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
21.1%
Cameron Johnston punt for 43 yds, fair catch by V'Angelo Bentley at the Illin 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1922% → 21%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
22.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 17Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 17
-2
21.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 15Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 11
OWN 15
0
21.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 11
OWN 15
0
21.0%
Ryan Frain punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 0:4880% → 87%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
19.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 23 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
19.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Nick Vannett, broken up by Rob BainSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
19.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 4 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
19.4%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Eaton SpenceSimilar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 6
OPP 33
-5
20.7%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Chase Farris) to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 11
OPP 38
+16
21.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 16 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
18.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 11 yds to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
19.5%
Barrett, J.T. pass incomplete to Thomas, Michael, PENALTY ILLINOIS holding (Spence, Eaton) 5 yards to the ILLINOIS6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q2 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
13.5%
J.T. Barrett 6 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15END OF HALF
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:0815% → 15%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-11
14.9%
Wes Lunt sacked by Tyquan Lewis for a loss of 11 yards to the Illin 10Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 21
OWN 10
-1
15.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 9Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 22
OWN 9
+2
14.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Illin 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3185% → 84%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
15.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
15.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
15.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the OhSt 34Similar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
15.9%
Cameron Johnston punt for 54 yds, fair catch by V'Angelo Bentley at the Illin 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17FUMBLE
10 plays · 63 yds · 2:2115% → 15%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
15.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Dionte TaylorSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+9
15.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 9 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+3
15.0%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+20
15.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 20 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
16.5%
Josh Ferguson run for no gain to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+38
16.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 38 yds to the OhSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
18.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
18.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
17.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Dionte TaylorSimilar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 10
OPP 18
-7
14.8%
Ryan Frain run for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 25 Ryan Frain fumbled, recovered by OhSt Raekwon McMillanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4585% → 94%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
15.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 9 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+16
14.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
50
+5
14.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 5 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+6
14.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 6 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
14.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+10
14.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 10 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
14.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+3
13.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+6
14.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
13.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the Illin 1Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.6%
Ezekiel Elliott 1 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 58 yds · 1:538% → 9%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
8.2%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+15
8.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 15 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
8.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+37
8.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 37 yds to the OhSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
9.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
9.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+7
9.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 7 yds to the OhSt 13Similar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 3
OPP 13
-3
9.1%
Cameron Tucker run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 16 OHIO ST Penalty, Illegal Shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20INT
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:3295% → 97%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
5.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 11 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
5.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+8
5.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
4.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Ezekiel ElliottSimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
4.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 1
50
0
3.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 1
50
+9
4.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
3.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 8 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+19
3.2%
J.T. Barrett pass intercepted Caleb Day return for 19 yds to the Illin 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:137% → 6%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
6.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 2 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+10
6.3%
Lunt, Wes pass incomplete to Ferguson, Josh, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Lewis, Tyquan) 10 yards to the ILLINOIS46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS.Similar
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
6.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
6.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
6.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 14:39
4TH & 11
OWN 45
+1
5.9%
Ryan Frain punt for 42 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 1 yd to the OhSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22FUMBLE
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:4897% → 98%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
3.5%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Marcus Baugh) to the OhSt 9Similar
Q4 14:28
1ST & 15
OWN 9
+9
3.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 9 yds to the OhSt 18Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+16
3.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 16 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
3.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 17 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
3.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
3.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Braxton Miller for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 49Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+18
3.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 18 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
2.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 8
OPP 31
-9
2.5%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Dawuane Smoot for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 37, J.T. Barrett fumbled, forced by Dawuane Smoot, recovered by OhSt Nick Vannett at the Illin 40, return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 17
OPP 40
-5
2.5%
OHIO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 22
OPP 45
0
2.6%
Cameron Johnston punt for 35 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for no gain to the Illin 10 V'Angelo Bentley fumbled, recovered by OhSt Bri'onte DunnSimilar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 22
OPP 45
0
2.4%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23TD
1 play · 10 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
0.2%
Ezekiel Elliott 10 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24DOWNS
15 plays · 46 yds · 4:340% → 0%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.4%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Joey Bosa) to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-1
0.4%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
0.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for no gain to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+22
0.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 22 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
0.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 2 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+7
0.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 7 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
0.3%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
0.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Tim ClarySimilar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
0.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Joey Bosa) to the OhSt 34Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+7
0.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 7 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-9
0.3%
Wes Lunt sacked by Tommy Schutt for a loss of 9 yards to the OhSt 36 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chris O'Connor) declinedSimilar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 19
OPP 36
0
0.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 19
OPP 36
+7
0.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Tim Clary for 7 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 12
OPP 29
0
0.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Dionte TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 4:47100% → 100%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
0.1%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 9 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+8
0.1%
Curtis Samuel run for 8 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
0.1%
Cardale Jones run for no gain to the OhSt 46Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
0.1%
Bri'onte Dunn run for 9 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
0.1%
Curtis Samuel run for 5 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
0.1%
Curtis Samuel run for 1 yd to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-2
0.1%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Braxton Miller for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+4
0.1%
Curtis Samuel run for 4 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+1
0.1%
Bri'onte Dunn run for 1 yd to the Illin 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
0.1%
Cameron Tucker run for 2 yds to the Illin 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:57
Ezekiel Elliott 1 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
-8
TD · Q2 0:50
J.T. Barrett 6 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
-5.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 5:33
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo Allison
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com