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ILL

Illinois 48 at Purdue 14

PUR
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.2PUR 40.5%Taylor Zalewski 46 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 0 · Q1 4:48
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:48 · Taylor Zalewski 46 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Home team on offense−2.9Score differential−1.5Garbage-time factor−0.7Pregame prior−6.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 8:42: Taylor Zalewski 34 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +5.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:23: Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 12 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +10.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:57: David Blough run for 3 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK) — PUR win probability +3.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:14: Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 20 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +11.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:30: Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 6 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +6.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 9 of 11ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:41PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:37ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:42PUR 4th & 11 at PUR 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:48ILL 4th & 10 at PUR 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:48PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:04ILL 4th & 16 at PUR 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    56.2%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00PUR 4th & 12 at PUR 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:42ILL 4th & 3 at PUR 16, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.2%−0.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−3.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:01ILL 4th & 17 at PUR 24, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−6.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:01PUR 4th & 16 at PUR 29, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:29ILL 4th & 1 at PUR 20, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%−2.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    81.7%−9.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:30PUR 4th & 8 at PUR 27, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00PUR 4th & 1 at ILL 5, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:44ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 19, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:42ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 41, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:58PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 32, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:58PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 46, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:47PUR 4th & 2 at ILL 37, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:41ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:23ILL Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:57PUR Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:14ILL Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:30ILL Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:41ILL Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:42PUR Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:47ILL Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.5%
David Blough pass incomplete, broken up by Jihad WardSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.5%
Markell Jones run for 6 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
42.5%
David Blough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
42.5%
Joe Schopper punt for 46 yds, downed at the Illin 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:5557% → 58%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
42.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 5 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+29
42.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 29 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
42.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 7 yds to the Prdue 35Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+3
42.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 3 yds to the Prdue 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
41.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 32 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
42.2%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 24Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
42.2%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 5 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
42.2%
David Blough run for 2 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
42.1%
Joe Schopper punt for 32 yds, downed at the Illin 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
41.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
41.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 5 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
41.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 5
OWN 42
-5
42.0%
ILLINOIS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Illin 37Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
42.2%
Ryan Frain punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
41.8%
Markell Jones run for 6 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
41.9%
Markell Jones run for 3 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
41.8%
Markell Jones run for 3 yds to the Prdue 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
41.9%
Markell Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 31Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
41.8%
David Blough pass incomplete to Cole HerdmanSimilar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 11
OWN 31
0
41.6%
David Blough pass incomplete to Markell Jones, broken up by Carroll PhillipsSimilar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 11
OWN 31
0
41.5%
Joe Schopper punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 1:4259% → 60%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
40.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 9 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
40.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+7
40.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 7 yds to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
40.6%
Josh Ferguson run for 17 yds to the Prdue 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
40.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
40.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
40.7%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
40.5%
Taylor Zalewski 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
41.2%
Markell Jones run for 2 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
41.3%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd to the Prdue 38Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
41.1%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
40.8%
Joe Schopper punt for 34 yds, downed at the Illin 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:1660% → 60%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
40.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 6 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+5
39.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 5 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
39.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 23 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-11
39.5%
Wes Lunt sacked by Andy James Garcia for a loss of 11 yards to the Prdue 49Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 21
OPP 49
+5
39.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 5 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 16
OPP 44
0
39.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q1 1:04
4TH & 16
OPP 44
0
40.0%
Chayce Crouch punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:1339% → 38%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
38.9%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for no gain to the Prdue 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-11
38.8%
David Blough sacked by T.J. Neal Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the Prdue 9Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 9
+9
38.2%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 9 yds to the Prdue 18Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+3
38.1%
Joe Schopper punt for 48 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 3 yds to the Illin 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 5:0361% → 68%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
38.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 6 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+6
38.4%
Wes Lunt run for 6 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
38.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 4 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
38.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 5 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+6
38.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 6 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
38.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
38.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 4 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
37.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+9
37.9%
Lunt,Wes pass incomplete to Cain,Desmond, PENALTY PUR pass interference (Gregory, Robert) 9 yards to the PUR23, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
36.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 25Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 12
OPP 25
0
36.8%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+9
37.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 9 yds to the Prdue 16Similar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+34
32.3%
Taylor Zalewski 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
35.0%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 5 yds to the Prdue 9Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+10
35.0%
Markell Jones run for 10 yds to the Prdue 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
35.3%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 2 yds to the Prdue 21Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+1
35.3%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 1 yd to the Prdue 22Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-5
34.8%
David Blough pass intercepted Taylor Barton return for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:3669% → 74%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
30.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 16 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
30.5%
Josh Ferguson run for 4 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Prdue 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
36.0%
Josh Ferguson run for 11 yds to the Prdue 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
35.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
25.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 12 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13TD
17 plays · 71 yds · 4:2626% → 32%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
25.5%
Markell Jones run for 2 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+4
25.4%
David Blough run for 4 yds to the Prdue 35Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+6
25.8%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 6 yds to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
27.0%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 7 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+4
27.3%
David Blough pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 4 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
27.3%
Blough, David pass complete to Jones, Markell for 5 yards to the ILL43 (Neal Jr.,T.J.), PENALTY ILL offside (Phillips,C.) 5 yards to the ILL43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+4
27.7%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 4 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+7
27.7%
David Blough run for 7 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
28.0%
David Blough pass incomplete to Gregory PhillipsSimilar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
27.8%
Markell Jones run for 12 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
28.2%
Markell Jones run for 3 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
28.2%
David Blough pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+10
27.6%
David Blough run for 10 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
29.5%
David Yancey run for 4 yds to the Illin 3Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
29.5%
David Blough pass incomplete to Gregory PhillipsSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
32.4%
David Blough run for 3 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 0:4374% → 88%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
25.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+31
26.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 31 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
24.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 8 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 2
OPP 29
0
23.3%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+9
23.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 9 yds to the Prdue 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
23.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
12.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 20 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
19.9%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16MISSED FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 3:5985% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
14.7%
Chayce Crouch run for 17 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
14.1%
Chayce Crouch run for 3 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-1
14.0%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+19
14.4%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 19 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
11.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Austin Schmidt) to the Prdue 42Similar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+25
11.6%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Desmond Cain for 25 yds to the Prdue 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
11.2%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Geronimo Allison, broken up by Frankie WilliamsSimilar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-8
11.3%
Chayce Crouch run for 2 yds to the Prdue 15 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding (Geronimo Allison) to the Prdue 25Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 18
OPP 25
+1
11.4%
Chayce Crouch run for 1 yd to the Prdue 24Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 17
OPP 24
0
11.6%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 17
OPP 24
+42
10.9%
Taylor Zalewski 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
14.1%
Markell Jones run for 4 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+4
14.2%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 4 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+3
14.6%
Markell Jones run for 3 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
14.4%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for a loss of 6 yards to the Prdue 29Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 16
OWN 29
0
13.9%
David Blough pass incomplete to Bilal Marshall, broken up by James CrawfordSimilar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
13.8%
David Blough pass incomplete to Markell JonesSimilar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
13.8%
Joe Schopper punt for 52 yds, fair catch by V'Angelo Bentley at the Illin 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 5:5991% → 99%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+33
8.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 33 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
7.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 19 yds to the Prdue 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
7.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Prdue 28Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-5
7.6%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Ted Karras) to the Prdue 33Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 14
OPP 33
+2
7.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 2 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+11
7.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 11 yds to the Prdue 20Similar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+3
8.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Prdue 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
7.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Prdue 17Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
7.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Prdue 16Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+10
7.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 10 yds to the Prdue 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
7.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Nathan EchardSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
1.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 6 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
3.8%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 2 yds to the Prdue 27Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
3.7%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo Yancey, broken up by Clayton FejedelemSimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
3.5%
David Blough pass incomplete, broken up by Eaton SpenceSimilar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
3.5%
Joe Schopper punt for 51 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for no gain to the Illin 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20TD
1 play · 78 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+78
0.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 78 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) PURDUE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 72 yds · 1:411% → 1%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
1.0%
David Blough pass complete to Shane Mikesky for 4 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+7
1.0%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 7 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
1.0%
David Blough pass complete to Shane Mikesky for 8 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+30
1.0%
Markell Jones run for 30 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
1.2%
Blough, David pass incomplete to Young, PENALTY ILL pass interference (Bentley, V.) 15 yards to the ILL14, 1ST DOWN PUR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
1.2%
David Blough pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+8
0.7%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 8 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+1
0.7%
David Blough run for 1 yd to the Illin 5Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 5
-1
0.6%
David Blough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:0299% → 99%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
0.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 10 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
0.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 17Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+1
0.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 18Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+1
0.6%
Cameron Tucker run for 1 yd to the Illin 19Similar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 7
OWN 19
+51
0.6%
Ryan Frain punt for 57 yds , Frankie Williams returns for 51 yds to the Illin 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
0.8%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 25 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
0.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+4
0.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
0.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+8
0.5%
Ryan Frain punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Prdue 13 , Frankie Williams returns for 8 yds to the Prdue 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
0.4%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 8 yds to the Prdue 21Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+6
0.3%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 6 yds to the Prdue 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-8
0.4%
David Blough sacked by Rob Bain for a loss of 8 yards to the Prdue 19Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 18
OWN 19
0
0.3%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 18
OWN 19
+13
0.3%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 13 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+6
0.3%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 6 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+15
0.4%
Blough, David rush for 1 yard to the PUR39, out-of-bounds (Finney,Eric), PENALTY PUR holding 10 yards to the PUR28, NO PLAY, PENALTY ILL unsportsmanlike conduct (Smoot,Dawuane) 15 yards to the PUR43, 1ST DOWN PUR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-9
0.4%
David Blough sacked by V'Angelo Bentley for a loss of 9 yards to the Prdue 34Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 19
OWN 34
0
0.3%
David Blough pass incomplete, broken up by Mason MonheimSimilar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 19
OWN 34
+12
0.3%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 12 yds to the Prdue 46Similar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+6
0.3%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 6 yds to the Illin 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 3:44100% → 100%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
0.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+12
0.2%
Chayce Crouch run for 12 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
0.2%
Chayce Crouch run for 8 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+11
0.2%
Cameron Tucker run for 11 yds to the Prdue 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
0.2%
Chayce Crouch run for 2 yds to the Prdue 18Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
0.1%
Kendrick Foster run for 18 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 27INT
9 plays · 35 yds · 1:470% → 0%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
0.1%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
0.1%
David Blough pass complete to David Yancey for 8 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+13
0.1%
David Blough pass complete to Dan Monteroso for 13 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
0.1%
David Blough pass complete to David Yancey for 3 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
0.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to Dan MonterosoSimilar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+5
0.1%
David Blough pass complete to Shane Mikesky for 5 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+6
0.1%
David Yancey run for 6 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
0.1%
David Blough pass intercepted Jevaris Little return for 8 yds to the Illin 23 ILLINOIS Penalty, illegal block (9 Yards) to the Illin 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
0.2%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:14
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 20 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)
-11
TD · Q2 5:23
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 12 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)
-10
TD · Q3 2:30
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 6 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)
-6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com