Try the model
MINN

Minnesota 14 at Ohio State 28

OSU
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Ohio Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:29 · Cameron Johnston punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Pregame prior+26.7Home team on offense+13.4Score differential+5.5Garbage-time factor+4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:53: Mitch Leidner pass intercepted by Vonn Bell at the Minn 16, Vonn Bell return for 16 yds for a TD, (Jack Willoughby KICK) — OSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:25: Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +6.0 pts (now 7%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:10: Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 10 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +11.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:10: Ryan Santoso on-side kick out of bounds at the Minn 44 MINNESOTA Penalty, Illegal Kicking (-5 Yards) to the Minn 39 — OSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:06: Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 41 — OSU win probability +5.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MINN made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:28MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:58OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:01MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:05OSU 4th & 17 at OSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:10MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:09OSU 4th & 7 at MINN 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:48MINN 4th & 10 at OSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:24OSU 4th & 11 at MINN 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    83.5%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:22MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:29OSU 4th & 10 at OSU 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:02MINN 4th & 18 at MINN 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:07MINN 4th & 14 at MINN 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:27MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:42OSU 4th & 4 at OSU 35, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:29MINN 4th & 4 at OSU 12, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−1.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:46OSU 4th & 4 at MINN 18, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−2.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:25MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:13OSU 4th & 8 at OSU 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:13MINN 4th & 3 at OSU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−1.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 4:53OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:54OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:43OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:25MINN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:10MINN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:53OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:125% → 5%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
94.8%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 23Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
94.7%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
94.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 7
OWN 26
+15
94.6%
Peter Mortell punt for 51 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 15 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2395% → 94%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
94.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-1
94.4%
Cardale Jones sacked by Hendrick Ekpe for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 39Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
94.3%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
94.2%
Cameron Johnston punt for 46 yds, downed at the Minn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:416% → 6%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
94.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 6 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+1
94.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 22Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+1
93.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 23Similar
Q1 10:01
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
93.8%
Peter Mortell punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:4794% → 93%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
93.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for no gain to the OhSt 39Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
93.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+8
93.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
93.6%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Braxton Miller, broken up by Theiren CockranSimilar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
93.5%
Braxton Miller run for 4 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-11
93.3%
Cardale Jones sacked by Jalen Myrick for a loss of 11 yards to the OhSt 48Similar
Q1 7:05
4TH & 17
OWN 48
0
92.8%
Cameron Johnston punt for 39 yds, fair catch by KiAnte Hardin at the Minn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 5:497% → 9%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
92.9%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 10Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 13
OWN 10
0
92.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brandon LingenSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+15
92.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 15 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
92.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 5 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
92.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 7 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
91.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 41. Play reviewed (possible fumble) and stands as called.Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+4
91.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 4 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-15
91.0%
Leidner, Mitch pass complete to Maye, KJ for 11 yards to the OHIOST44, PENALTY MINNESOTA pass interference (Wozniak, Nate) 15 yards to the MINNESOTA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 19
OWN 30
+13
91.4%
Shannon Brooks run for 13 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q1 1:10
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+33
91.0%
Peter Mortell punt for 50 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 33 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:5492% → 91%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
91.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+11
91.7%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 11 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
91.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
91.5%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+1
91.4%
Braxton Miller run for 1 yd to the Minn 38Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
90.9%
Cameron Johnston punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:1310% → 12%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
90.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
90.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 10 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
89.6%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Minn 32Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
89.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew Wolitarsky, broken up by Eli AppleSimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+16
89.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 16 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
88.4%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 49Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+18
88.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 18 yds to the OhSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
87.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Shannon Brooks, broken up by Joshua PerrySimilar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
87.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rodrick Williams JrSimilar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
87.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brandon LingenSimilar
Q2 9:48
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+50
88.4%
Ryan Santoso 50 yd FG MISSED wide left.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:1189% → 88%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
89.3%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 12 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
89.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+5
89.6%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Nick Vannett for 5 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+4
89.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
89.2%
Cardale Jones sacked by De'Vondre Campbell for a loss of 10 yards to the OhSt 47Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 20
OWN 47
0
88.3%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 20
OWN 47
+9
87.8%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 9 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
87.6%
Cameron Johnston punt for 36 yds, fair catch by KiAnte Hardin at the Minn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9INT TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:1914% → 9%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
86.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 9Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+3
86.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Minn 12Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+16
91.2%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted by Vonn Bell at the Minn 16, Vonn Bell return for 16 yds for a TD, (Jack Willoughby KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:239% → 9%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 1 yd to the Minn 26Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
90.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
90.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
91.1%
Peter Mortell punt for 50 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for no gain to the OhSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:1891% → 94%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
90.7%
Cardale Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 22Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 11
OWN 22
-7
90.4%
Braxton Miller run for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 15Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 18
OWN 15
+19
89.9%
Cardale Jones run for 19 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
90.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+7
90.9%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Nick Vannett for 7 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+44
90.4%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 44 yds to the Minn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
94.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 15 yds for a TD, (Jack Willoughby KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:447% → 6%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
93.3%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 34Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+10
93.7%
Rodney Smith run for 10 yds to the Minn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:5594% → 92%
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
93.8%
Braxton Miller run for 13 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
93.8%
Braxton Miller run for no gain to the OhSt 29Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
93.8%
Cardale Jones run for 2 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-2
92.6%
Cardale Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 29Similar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
92.1%
Cameron Johnston punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:238% → 7%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
92.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
92.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 7 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 3
OWN 46
-15
92.2%
Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 15 yards to the Minn 31 Mitch Leidner fumbled, recovered by Minn Jonah PirsigSimilar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 18
OWN 31
0
93.3%
Peter Mortell punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:1293% → 98%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
93.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 7 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+1
93.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the OhSt 49Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+4
93.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
93.6%
Cardale Jones run for 21 yds to the Minn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
93.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+10
93.6%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 10 yds to the Minn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
93.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the Minn 7Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 4
OPP 7
-5
94.0%
Jones, Cardale pass complete to Thomas, Michael for 7 yards to the MINNESOTA0, PENALTY OHIOST ineligible downfield on pass (Marshall, Jalin) 5 yards to the MINNESOTA12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+6
94.6%
Cardale Jones run for 6 yds to the Minn 6Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
98.4%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 6 yds for a TD, (Jack Willoughby KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:252% → 2%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
97.6%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-6
97.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 17Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 14
OWN 17
0
97.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rodney SmithSimilar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 14
OWN 17
+9
97.8%
Peter Mortell punt for 44 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 9 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17FUMBLE
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:1099% → 99%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
98.6%
Elliott, Ezekiel rush for 9 yards to the MINNESOTA43, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Boren, Jacoby) 10 yards to the OHIOST38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+11
98.6%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 11 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+12
98.4%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 12 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
98.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+15
98.9%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 15 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
98.9%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Jalin Marshall, broken up by Briean Boddy-CalhounSimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
99.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the Minn 19Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 7
OPP 19
-2
99.3%
Cardale Jones sacked by Jack Lynn for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 25, Cardale Jones fumbled, forced by Jack Lynn, recovered by Minn Hendrick Ekpe at the Minn 21.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:182% → 1%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
98.4%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 22Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
98.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+3
98.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 3 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q3 0:27
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+7
98.8%
Peter Mortell punt for 53 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 7 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3799% → 99%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.3%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Curtis SamuelSimilar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
99.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
99.4%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Curtis Samuel, broken up by KiAnte HardinSimilar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+11
99.3%
Cameron Johnston punt for 53 yds , KiAnte Hardin returns for 11 yds to the Minn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 4:051% → 7%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+31
98.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodrick Williams Jr for 31 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
98.9%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 3 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+25
98.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 25 yds to the OhSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
98.8%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 4 yds to the OhSt 14Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+2
98.8%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 2 yds to the OhSt 12Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
98.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+8
98.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 8 yds to the OhSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.8%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for no gain to the OhSt 4Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brandon Lingen, broken up by Darron LeeSimilar
Q4 10:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21MISSED FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:3098% → 98%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
97.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+45
97.8%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Braxton Miller for 45 yds to the Minn 24 for a 1ST down. Braxton Miller injured on play.Similar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
98.1%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Eric MurraySimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
98.0%
Cardale Jones run for 6 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
98.0%
Cardale Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
97.9%
Jack Willoughby 35 yd FG MISSED wide right.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:176% → 5%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ Maye, broken up by Tyvis PowellSimilar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+21
94.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 6 yds to the Minn 26 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Tyquan Lewis) to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
94.0%
KJ Maye run for 1 yd to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
93.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ Maye, broken up by Raekwon McMillanSimilar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
94.2%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Drew Wolitarsky, broken up by Joey BosaSimilar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
95.0%
Peter Mortell punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0398% → 98%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
98.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+9
98.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
98.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 7 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 3
OWN 45
-5
98.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 40Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
98.6%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Curtis Samuel, broken up by Adekunle AyindeSimilar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
98.4%
Cameron Johnston punt for 38 yds, fair catch by KiAnte Hardin at the Minn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 1:593% → 15%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
97.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Berkley EdwardsSimilar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
97.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 7 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+57
97.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 57 yds to the OhSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
96.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 4 yds to the OhSt 10Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
96.7%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for no gain to the OhSt 10Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
85.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 10 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 0:1395% → 99%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
95.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 41Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+3
95.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+38
99.3%
Cardale Jones run for 38 yds for a TD, (Jack Willoughby KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 1:241% → 2%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
98.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodrick Williams Jr for 13 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
98.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 5 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+10
98.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 10 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
98.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 6 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-5
98.2%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Delay of Game (Mitch Leidner) to the OhSt 44Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+7
98.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 7 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 2
OPP 37
-1
98.3%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Sam Hubbard for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 38Similar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+2
98.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 2 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:10
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 10 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q4 10:25
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
-6
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:06
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 41
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com