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PSU

Penn State 21 at Northwestern 23

NU
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:01 · Hunter Niswander punt for 39 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 39 PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the PnSt 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Home team on offense+9.4Score differential+1.9Garbage-time factor+5.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Pregame prior−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:18: Saquon Barkley 7 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick) — PSU win probability +12.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:04: Solomon Vault 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Jack Mitchell Kick) — NU win probability +15.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:04: DaeSean Hamilton 32 Yd pass from Geno Lewis (Tyler Davis Kick) — PSU win probability +20.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:22: Saquon Barkley run for 13 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +24.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:09: Jack Mitchell 35 Yd Field Goal — NU win probability +48.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11PSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 14:09PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:57NU 4th & 6 at PSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:22PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:40NU 4th & 14 at NU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:33PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:14NU 4th & 1 at NU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q1 4:14PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  8. Q1 1:45NU 4th & 17 at PSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    56.9%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 14:53PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 17, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:54PSU 4th & 8 at NU 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    34.2%−0.3
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:13PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 40, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:15NU 4th & 5 at PSU 44, up 13
    Close callPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%−1.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:52PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:38NU 4th & 6 at PSU 41, up 13
    Close callPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    83.0%−1.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:41PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 19, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:37NU 4th & 10 at PSU 30, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    82.6%−1.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:27PSU 4th & 14 at NU 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:01NU 4th & 21 at NU 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−5.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:25NU 4th & 11 at NU 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−4.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:19NU 4th & 17 at PSU 38, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 7.9 ptsPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−8.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    46.8%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−7.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:13PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 14, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−1.0
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:09NU 4th & 4 at PSU 18, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−36.4
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−54.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 12:56NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:00NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:18PSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:04NU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:04PSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:22PSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:4252% → 52%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
48.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q1 14:24
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
48.4%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Paris Palmer) to the PnSt 25Similar
Q1 14:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
48.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 14:09
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+45
48.5%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 45 yds , Miles Shuler returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 29 Miles Shuler fumbled, recovered by NwestSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2MISSED FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:0749% → 49%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
48.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 18 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
48.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 2 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
48.8%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+26
48.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 26 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
49.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
49.2%
Warren Long run for 4 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
49.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
49.1%
Jack Mitchell 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2951% → 51%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
48.9%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 18Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+6
49.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 6 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
49.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q1 10:22
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+6
49.5%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 43 yds , Miles Shuler returns for 6 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3550% → 49%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-9
49.5%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Brandon Bell for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 19
OWN 30
+6
49.3%
Solomon Vault run for 6 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 13
OWN 36
-1
49.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Miles Shuler for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 35Similar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+8
48.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 48 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 8 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5951% → 50%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
49.3%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 22Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
49.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+15
49.8%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Personal Foul (Dean Lowry) to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
49.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
49.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
49.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
50.0%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:1150% → 50%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
49.8%
Clayton Thorson run for 16 yds to the Nwest 36 Clayton Thorson fumbled, recovered by NwestSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
50.1%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
50.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+9
49.6%
Clayton Thorson run for 9 yds to the Nwest 45 Clayton Thorson fumbled, recovered by NwestSimilar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
50.3%
Hunter Niswander punt for 40 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5650% → 49%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
49.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
50.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 16Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
50.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
51.1%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:2252% → 51%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
51.6%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-1
51.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Brandon Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+13
51.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 13 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
52.5%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Jelani Roberts for 10 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
52.9%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Jelani Roberts for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 12
OPP 36
-5
52.7%
Zack Oliver sacked by Brandon Bell for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 17
OPP 41
0
51.7%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
51.1%
Hunter Niswander punt for 32 yds, downed at the PnSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4849% → 48%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
50.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+9
50.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 9 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 1
OWN 18
-5
50.8%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Mike Gesicki) to the PnSt 13Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+4
51.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 4 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
51.6%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 1:4953% → 60%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
53.0%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+1
53.6%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 1
50
+35
53.6%
Warren Long run for 35 yds to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
54.7%
Warren Long run for 1 yd to the PnSt 14Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+14
60.4%
Christian Jones 14 Yd pass from Zack Oliver (Jack Mitchell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 39 yds · 4:5142% → 37%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 7 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+18
57.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
50
+4
56.9%
Christian Hackenberg run for 4 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+4
57.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
58.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
58.9%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 15
OPP 43
-2
60.5%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 45Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+3
61.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 3 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 14
OPP 42
+6
62.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Akeel Lynch for 6 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
62.9%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 91 yds · 1:4563% → 75%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+48
62.8%
Justin Jackson run for 48 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
65.0%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Grant Haley) to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
65.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+25
66.0%
Justin Jackson run for 25 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.5%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the PnSt 1Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.0%
Zack Oliver 1 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:2728% → 41%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
71.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 5 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
72.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+6
72.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 6 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
72.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
73.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+32
73.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 32 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
71.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+21
71.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 21 yds to the Nwest 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
59.5%
Saquon Barkley 7 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:4026% → 25%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
74.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
74.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 6 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-3
74.2%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Deonte Gibson for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 40Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
75.4%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1078% → 79%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
78.0%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (John Reid) to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
78.2%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Nwest 20Similar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 25
OWN 20
-1
78.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 19Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 26
OWN 19
-1
78.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 1:3976% → 78%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.4%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 14:43
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
76.9%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Dan Vitale for 10 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
77.7%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Dan Vitale for 10 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
78.0%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
79.0%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
79.2%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Mike McHughSimilar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
78.5%
Zack Oliver pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
77.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 37 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:1724% → 20%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+13
76.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 13 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
76.3%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 18Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-3
77.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saquon Barkley for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 15Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+9
79.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 9 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
80.1%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0880% → 82%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
80.3%
Jelani Roberts run for 2 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
81.7%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Jelani Roberts for 6 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+8
81.6%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 8 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
82.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
82.8%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+1
82.3%
Zack Oliver run for 1 yd to the PnSt 41Similar
Q3 8:38
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
81.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4919% → 18%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
81.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
81.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
81.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 5
OWN 19
+3
82.1%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 44 yds , Miles Shuler returns for 3 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21MISSED FG
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:5584% → 83%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
83.8%
Justin Jackson run for 30 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
84.1%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
84.8%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
84.2%
Zack Oliver pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
83.1%
Jack Mitchell 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:2719% → 40%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
81.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
82.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 1 yd to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
83.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+15
83.3%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
80.2%
Christian Hackenberg run for 7 yds to the NORTHWSTRN 47 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
60.1%
DaeSean Hamilton 32 Yd pass from Geno Lewis (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23INT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4470% → 72%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
69.5%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 32 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Nwest 22Similar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+5
69.1%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
69.4%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
71.6%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
72.4%
Zack Oliver pass intercepted Jason Cabinda return for no gain to the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:3635% → 32%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
65.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 38Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+25
65.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 25 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
62.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
59.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 4
OPP 31
-10
62.0%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Angelo Mangiro) to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 14
OPP 41
0
66.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:27
4TH & 14
OPP 41
0
68.5%
Chris Gulla punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:1974% → 73%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
74.3%
Justin Jackson run for 17 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
74.8%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-5
76.1%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (Shane Mertz) to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 12
OWN 32
-1
74.6%
Warren Long run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 13
OWN 31
-8
73.5%
Zack Oliver sacked by Carl Nassib for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 23 Zack Oliver fumbled, recovered by NwestSimilar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 21
OWN 23
+1
72.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 39 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 39 PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the PnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:3933% → 60%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
67.4%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+23
68.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 23 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
64.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 13 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
63.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+26
63.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 26 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
39.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 13 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4048% → 44%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
47.7%
Zack Oliver sacked by Austin Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
47.4%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
45.0%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
43.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 39 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 28INT
8 plays · 30 yds · 4:0656% → 61%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
44.1%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 12
OWN 35
-2
44.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saquon Barkley for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+24
47.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 24 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
39.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+12
39.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 12 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-7
38.1%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Anthony Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 17
OPP 37
+4
38.9%
Christian Hackenberg run for 4 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 13
OPP 33
+4
38.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted Nick VanHoose return for 4 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 29PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:4849% → 44%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
48.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+9
48.5%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 9 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
52.3%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+14
52.3%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Mike McHugh for 14 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
54.3%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+9
54.3%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Justin Jackson for 9 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-8
56.5%
Zack Oliver sacked by Garrett Sickels for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 18
OPP 39
+1
50.8%
Solomon Vault run for 1 yd to the PnSt 38Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 17
OPP 38
0
48.7%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Miles ShulerSimilar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 17
OPP 38
0
44.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 32 yds, downed at the PnSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 30PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:5763% → 63%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
37.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 6 yds to the PnSt 12Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+3
36.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 1
OWN 15
-1
35.6%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 14Similar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 2
OWN 14
0
37.2%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 40 yds, downed at the Nwest 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 31FG
15 plays · 36 yds · 2:0452% → 94%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
51.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 15
OWN 41
0
46.7%
Zack Oliver pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
45.8%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+23
42.4%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Austin Carr for 23 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
52.5%
Zack Oliver pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
52.4%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+7
48.5%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
52.1%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+3
54.8%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+1
47.3%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 18Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
93.7%
Jack Mitchell 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 32FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
86.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 12 yds to the PnSt 32 lat. to DaeSean Hamilton for a loss of 5 yards DaeSean Hamilton fumbled, recovered by NwestSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:09
Jack Mitchell 35 Yd Field Goal
+48.3
TD · Q4 12:22
Saquon Barkley run for 13 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
-24.1
TD · Q3 5:04
DaeSean Hamilton 32 Yd pass from Geno Lewis (Tyler Davis Kick)
-20.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com