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MSU

Michigan State 38 at Nebraska 39

NEB
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+15.5NEB 38.7%Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds fora TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )AWAY 31 - HOME 26 · Q4 13:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:06 · Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Home team on offense−3.4Pregame prior−2.6Garbage-time factor−4.8Score differential−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:31: Imani Cross run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +14.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:13: Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 33 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +15.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:06: Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NEB win probability +15.5 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 1:47: Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +20.2 pts (now 28%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:17: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 30 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NEB win probability +72.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:31MSU 4th & 1 at NEB 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    59.5%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:34NEB 4th & 5 at NEB 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:11MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:10NEB 4th & 8 at MSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:35MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:51NEB 4th & 1 at MSU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    43.9%−1.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:30MSU 4th & 8 at NEB 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:19NEB 4th & 8 at NEB 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:21NEB 4th & 14 at MSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−4.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:01MSU 4th & 1 at NEB 44, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%−9.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−6.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:55MSU 4th & 13 at NEB 47, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 5MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 2:07NEB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:35MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:17MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:31NEB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:13MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:14MSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:06NEB Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    33.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    33.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:16MSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:47NEB Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:17NEB Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    80.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:2962% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+43
38.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 43 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
38.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 6 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+2
38.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the Neb 24Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+1
38.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 1 yd to the Neb 23Similar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 1
OPP 23
-2
38.7%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5739% → 39%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.0%
Imani Cross run for 5 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
39.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+9
39.0%
Sam Foltz punt for 51 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 9 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2361% → 60%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
39.2%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
39.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to LJ ScottSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
39.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
39.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Westerkamp at the Neb 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 4:0140% → 42%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
39.5%
Imani Cross run for 6 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
40.1%
Imani Cross run for 2 yds to the Neb 43Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+13
40.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 13 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
40.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 7 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+8
41.0%
Imani Cross run for 8 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
41.3%
Andy Janovich run for 6 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 4
OPP 23
-4
41.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
41.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
41.7%
Drew Brown 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3058% → 57%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
41.7%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
41.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 2 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
41.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
42.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:2842% → 49%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
42.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 9 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+22
43.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 22 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
43.7%
Imani Cross run for 6 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
44.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for no gain to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+3
44.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 3 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+2
43.9%
Imani Cross run for 2 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
49.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 38 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:3752% → 53%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+25
48.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 25 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
47.1%
Cook, Connor pass incomplete to Shelton, R.J., PENALTY NEBRASKA pass interference (Cockrell, Byerson) 15 yards to the NEBRASKA30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
46.8%
Connor Cook run for 4 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-2
46.7%
R.J. Shelton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 28Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
48.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q1 0:30
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
47.5%
Michael Geiger 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0249% → 48%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
49.1%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (Alex Lewis) to the Neb 31Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+2
48.8%
Imani Cross run for 2 yds to the Neb 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+5
48.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 5 yds to the Neb 38Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
49.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
48.4%
Sam Foltz punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 2:4452% → 59%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
48.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
48.2%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+15
48.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 15 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
48.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 4 yds to the Neb 36Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+2
48.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+34
41.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 34 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10INT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5946% → 46%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
46.4%
Andy Janovich run for 12 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
47.0%
Alonzo Moore run for 13 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
47.7%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy pass incomplete, PENALTY NEBRASKA holding (Utter, Dylan) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+2
46.6%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 18
OPP 35
0
47.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Taariq AllenSimilar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 18
OPP 35
+14
46.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted Demetrious Cox return for 14 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11INT
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:5757% → 58%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
43.5%
Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+15
42.7%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Kevin Maurice) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
50
-2
40.9%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+12
42.0%
Connor Cook pass intercepted Jonathan Rose return for 12 yds to the Neb 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:0447% → 49%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
47.1%
Imani Cross run for 5 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
48.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+17
47.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 17 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
49.2%
Brandon Reilly run for 17 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
50.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Taariq Allen for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 12
OPP 24
-2
50.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 14
OPP 26
0
48.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Taariq AllenSimilar
Q2 4:21
4TH & 14
OPP 26
+43
48.9%
Drew Brown 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:0450% → 65%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
49.8%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Jamal LylesSimilar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
51.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 16 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
48.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Khari WillisSimilar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
48.8%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Nate Gerry) to the Neb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
47.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 13 yds to the Neb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
45.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the Neb 33Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-15
46.0%
Cook, Connor pass complete to Price, Josiah for 17 yards to the NEBRASKA16, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Price, Josiah) 15 yards to the NEBRASKA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 24
OPP 48
+29
49.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 29 yds to the Neb 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
45.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the Neb 18Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
47.1%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the Neb 18Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+18
35.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 18 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
40.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:1441% → 58%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
40.9%
Imani Cross run for 7 yds to the Neb 38Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+6
43.3%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
43.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for no gain to the Neb 44Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+12
41.8%
Imani Cross run for 12 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+43
44.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 43 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.3%
Imani Cross run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 3:1847% → 65%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
52.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
52.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Trevon Pendleton for 3 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+11
53.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+28
52.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 28 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
50.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the Neb 33Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+33
35.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 33 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17INT
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:4043% → 46%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
43.4%
Imani Cross run for 7 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+15
44.5%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy pass incomplete to Reilly, Brandon, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Edmondson, Jermaine) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEBRASKA.Similar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
45.0%
Imani Cross run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+35
43.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 35 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
45.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 7Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+17
46.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted Riley Bullough return for 17 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 4:1962% → 81%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
37.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+6
37.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
37.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Trevon PendletonSimilar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+12
37.7%
R.J. Shelton run for 12 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
34.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 8 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+1
31.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 1
50
+5
31.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Trevon Pendleton for 5 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+29
31.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 29 yds to the Neb 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
29.0%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
18.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 16 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:0821% → 39%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
21.1%
Imani Cross run for 5 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
22.0%
Andy Janovich run for 7 yds to the Neb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
22.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+13
21.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 13 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
22.9%
Imani Cross run for 21 yds to the MchSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
24.5%
Andy Janovich run for 1 yd to the MchSt 18Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+11
24.4%
Imani Cross run for 11 yds to the MchSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
23.4%
Imani Cross run for 1 yd to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
23.2%
Imani Cross run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 2Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 8:5070% → 94%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
30.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
28.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
29.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aj TroupSimilar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+5
30.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 5 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+11
29.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 11 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
25.5%
Damion Terry run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 7
50
+5
24.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 5 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
24.3%
Delton Williams run for 1 yd to the Neb 44Similar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+4
26.1%
Connor Cook run for 4 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
22.8%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the Neb 40Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+13
22.5%
Damion Terry pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 13 yds to the Neb 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
18.5%
Connor Cook run for 3 yds to the Neb 24Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-4
18.1%
Connor Cook run for a loss of 4 yards to the Neb 28Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+23
19.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 23 yds to the Neb 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
14.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the Neb 1Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21TD
13 plays · 53 yds · 2:299% → 28%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+22
9.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 22 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
9.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
8.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+14
7.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 14 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
9.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
9.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+13
7.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 13 yds to the MchSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
9.4%
Newby, Terrell rush for 1 yard to the MICHIGANST1, PENALTY MICHIGANST 12 men on the field 1 yards to the MICHIGANST1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
9.5%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
8.6%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 0:5292% → 93%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
7.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the Neb 43Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+1
7.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the Neb 42Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
7.3%
Jamal Lyles run for no gain to the Neb 42 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 8
OPP 42
-5
6.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Neb 47Similar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 13
OPP 47
0
7.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23TD
5 plays · 91 yds · 0:3810% → 90%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+28
10.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 28 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+33
11.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 33 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
17.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
89.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 30 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:1431% → 29%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
68.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 17 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
70.8%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:17
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 30 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+72.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+29.2
TD · Q4 1:47
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+20.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com