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RUTG

Rutgers 16 at Michigan 49

MICH
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreRUTG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:20 · Joey Roth punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Pregame prior+23.2Home team on offense+16.8Score differential+6.1Blowout margin+0.6Garbage-time factor+4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:42: Jabrill Peppers run for 18 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +2.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:29: Kenny Allen kickoff for 63 yds , Janarion Grant return for 98 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +3.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:06: Drake Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +2.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:00: Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 8 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +4.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:40: De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (J. Rudock Run For Two-point Conversion) — MICH win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6RUTG made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:44MICH 4th & 7 at RUTG 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:19RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:43RUTG 4th & 14 at MICH 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:01RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:00RUTG 4th & 6 at MICH 11, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:09MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 22, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:20RUTG 4th & 19 at RUTG 29, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−1.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:23RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 40, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:53MICH 4th & 3 at RUTG 16, up 27
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:35RUTG 4th & 7 at MICH 18, down 30
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:29MICH 4th & 4 at RUTG 10, up 30
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:06RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 31, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:33MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 22, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:08RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 29, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:58MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 47, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:14RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 26, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:03MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:15MICH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:42MICH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:29RUTG Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:06MICH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:00MICH Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:40MICH Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:0392% → 91%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.8%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Drake JohnsonSimilar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.7%
Sione Houma run for 6 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+17
91.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 17 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
91.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 8
50
0
91.4%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 8
50
+28
91.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Drake Johnson for 28 yds to the Rutgr 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
91.3%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Rutgr 22Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+6
91.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Joe Kerridge for 6 yds to the Rutgr 16Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 4
OPP 16
-3
90.9%
Drake Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 19Similar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+37
90.8%
Kenny Allen 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:029% → 10%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
90.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 17 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Chris LavianoSimilar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
90.5%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Carlton AgudosiSimilar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+1
90.5%
Chris Laviano run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
90.5%
Joey Roth punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3TD
3 plays · 46 yds · 0:5491% → 91%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+32
90.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Sione Houma for 32 yds to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
90.4%
Drake Johnson run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 13Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
91.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 13 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:049% → 10%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
90.8%
Robert Martin run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+54
90.6%
Robert Martin run for 54 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
90.2%
Chris Laviano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
90.1%
Robert Martin run for no gain to the Mich 15Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+6
90.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (6 Yards) to the Mich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
89.9%
Robert Martin run for 4 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
89.8%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Andre PattonSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-9
90.0%
Chris Laviano sacked by Chris Wormley for a loss of 9 yards to the Mich 14Similar
Q1 4:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
89.9%
Kyle Federico 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:0990% → 91%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
89.8%
Sione Houma run for 2 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
89.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+1
89.5%
Joe Kerridge run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
89.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 20 yds to the Rutgr 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
89.5%
Jabrill Peppers run for a loss of 10 yards to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 20
OPP 38
+31
88.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 31 yds to the Rutgr 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
89.3%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q1 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
89.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 4Similar
Q1 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.8%
Jake Rudock run for 4 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0010% → 9%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
90.5%
Josh Hicks run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-3
90.4%
Chris Laviano sacked by Royce Jenkins-Stone for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
90.6%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Justin GoodwinSimilar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
90.7%
Joey Roth punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:5891% → 94%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
90.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 17 yds to the Rutgr 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
91.2%
Sione Houma run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+9
91.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 9 yds to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
91.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+14
91.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 14 yds to the Rutgr 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
91.2%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+18
93.9%
Jabrill Peppers run for 18 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:5491% → 94%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
91.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 11 yds to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
91.3%
Drake Johnson run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+28
91.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 28 yds to the Rutgr 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
91.3%
Joe Kerridge run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 1Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.0%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q2 8:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.7%
Drake Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 3:347% → 8%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
93.1%
Chris Laviano run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
92.9%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Robert Martin for 1 yd to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
93.0%
Josh Hicks run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+24
92.9%
Robert Martin run for 9 yds to the Mich 42, MICHIGAN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
92.5%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Vance Matthews for 18 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
92.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
92.2%
Chris Laviano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-3
92.2%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Janarion Grant for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 18Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+7
92.9%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Janarion Grant for 7 yds to the Mich 11Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
91.9%
Kyle Federico 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:3993% → 97%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
92.9%
Drake Johnson run for 10 yds to the Rutgr 30 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) to the Rutgr 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
92.9%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 11Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+3
93.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jabrill Peppers for 3 yds to the Rutgr 8Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+8
97.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 8 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12INT
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:314% → 4%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.2%
Chris Laviano run for 11 yds to the Rutgr 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
96.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
95.9%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Charles ScarffSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
96.0%
Justin Goodwin run for 6 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+4
95.8%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Justin Goodwin for 4 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
95.9%
Chris Laviano pass intercepted Jarrod Wilson return for no gain to the Mich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:4997% → 97%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
97.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-9
97.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-9 Yards) to the Mich 9Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 16
OWN 9
+2
97.5%
Sione Houma run for 2 yds to the Mich 11Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+11
97.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Grant Perry for 11 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 3
OWN 22
+67
97.4%
Blake O'Neill punt for 54 yds , Janarion Grant returns for 67 yds to the Mich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:043% → 4%
Q2 0:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
97.0%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Andre PattonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
94.5%
Kyle Federico 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
96.1%
RUTGERS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:356% → 5%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.2%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Matt FlanaganSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
94.3%
Josh Hicks run for 13 yds to the Rutgr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
93.9%
Josh Hicks run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
93.9%
Josh Hicks run for no gain to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-12
94.5%
Chris Laviano sacked by Chris Wormley for a loss of 12 yards to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 19
OWN 29
0
94.9%
Joey Roth punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:0597% → 99%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+56
96.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 56 yds to the Rutgr 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (J. Rudock Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.4%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Andre Patton for 11 yds to the Rutgr 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.4%
Robert Martin run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+1
99.4%
Robert Martin run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+2
99.5%
Chris Laviano run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q3 9:23
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
99.5%
Joey Roth punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18FG
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
99.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 7 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+10
99.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 10 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+36
99.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to A.J. Williams for 21 yds to the MICHIGAN 38 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Rutgr 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
99.7%
Drake Johnson run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 16Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 3
OPP 16
0
99.6%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
99.6%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+34
99.6%
Kenny Allen 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:180% → 0%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.6%
RUTGERS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
99.6%
RUTGERS Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 15Similar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+20
99.6%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Andre Patton for 20 yds to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
99.6%
Chris Laviano run for 11 yds to the Rutgr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.6%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Vance MatthewsSimilar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+22
99.5%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Janarion Grant for 22 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.5%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Andre PattonSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
99.6%
Josh Hicks run for 11 yds to the Mich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
99.5%
Josh Hicks run for 1 yd to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+2
99.7%
Josh Hicks run for 2 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
99.8%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Dontae OwensSimilar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 7
OPP 18
0
99.7%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Carlton AgudosiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20FG
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:43100% → 100%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
99.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 16 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
99.8%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 32Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+15
99.8%
RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+25
99.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 25 yds to the Rutgr 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
99.8%
Drake Johnson run for 9 yds to the Rutgr 19Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+3
99.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
99.8%
Sione Houma run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 13Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+3
99.9%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 10Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+28
99.9%
Kenny Allen 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:150% → 0%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Andre PattonSimilar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-1
99.9%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Robert Martin for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 14Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+14
99.9%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Justin Goodwin for 14 yds to the Rutgr 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Andre Patton for 4 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-1
99.9%
Robert Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Justin GoodwinSimilar
Q4 11:06
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Joey Roth punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
99.9%
Sione Houma run for 4 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-4
99.9%
Wilton Speight run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 22Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to De'Veon SmithSimilar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+54
99.9%
Blake O'Neill punt for 44 yds RUTGERS Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Rutgr 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:490% → 0%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
99.9%
Josh Hicks run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+1
99.9%
Hayden Rettig run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Hayden Rettig pass incomplete to Andre PattonSimilar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Joey Roth punt for 29 yds, downed at the Mich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.9%
Derrick Green run for 3 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
99.9%
Derrick Green run for 3 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-1
99.9%
Ross Taylor-Douglas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 47Similar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Blake O'Neill punt for 35 yds, downed at the Rutgr 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:380% → 0%
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
99.9%
Robert Martin run for 10 yds to the Rutgr 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Robert Martin run for no gain to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
99.9%
Hayden Rettig run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+5
100.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-8
100.0%
Hayden Rettig sacked by Taco Charlton for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Joey Roth punt for 35 yds, downed at the Mich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
100.0%
Wyatt Shallman run for 4 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
100.0%
Wyatt Shallman run for 5 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+9
100.0%
Ross Taylor-Douglas run for 9 yds to the Rutgr 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
100.0%
Wyatt Shallman run for no gain to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:00
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 8 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q2 10:29
Kenny Allen kickoff for 63 yds , Janarion Grant return for 98 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)
-3.1
TD · Q3 11:40
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (J. Rudock Run For Two-point Conversion)
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com