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WIS

Wisconsin 31 at Maryland 24

MD
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:57 · Adam Greene 46 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Pregame prior−26.5Home team on offense−0.9Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:49: D.J. Moore 40 Yd pass from Perry Hills (Adam Greene Kick) — MD win probability +11.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:17: Alec Ingold 1 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick) — WIS win probability +13.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:17: WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 30 — MD win probability +4.3 pts (now 24%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:01: Dare Ogunbowale 7 Yd pass from Joel Stave (Rafael Gaglianone Kick) — WIS win probability +10.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:39: Levern Jacobs 27 Yd pass from Caleb Rowe (Adam Greene Kick) — MD win probability +19.6 pts (now 23%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 8 of 10WIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:45MD 4th & 3 at WIS 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    22.1%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:18WIS 4th & 7 at WIS 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:30MD 4th & 18 at WIS 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    25.0%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:45WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:34MD 4th & 21 at WIS 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−1.1
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:57MD 4th & 10 at WIS 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:05WIS 4th & 10 at MD 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:23MD 4th & 11 at WIS 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    24.6%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:12WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 22, up 7
    Close callPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:28WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:58MD 4th & 4 at MD 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:15MD 4th & 9 at MD 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:47MD 4th & 11 at MD 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:30WIS 4th & 14 at MD 36, up 14
    Close callPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:10MD 4th & 10 at MD 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:32WIS 4th & 14 at MD 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    94.1%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:32MD 4th & 2 at MD 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:06WIS 4th & 5 at MD 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−3.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:50WIS 4th & 1 at MD 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.9%−0.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:17MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:04WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:56WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:49MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:17WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:01WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:39MD Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0317% → 18%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
17.1%
Perry Hills run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 45Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+5
17.4%
Brandon Ross run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 7
50
+4
17.8%
Perry Hills pass complete to Wes Brown for 4 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q1 12:45
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
18.1%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2282% → 81%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
18.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for no gain to the Wisc 5Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+3
18.5%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the Wisc 8Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 7
OWN 8
0
18.8%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 7
OWN 8
0
19.0%
Drew Meyer punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:5319% → 22%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
19.2%
Wes Brown run for 3 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+15
19.5%
Hills, Perry pass incomplete to Moore, D.J., PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference (Shelton, Sojourn) 15 yards to the WISCONSIN14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARYLAND.Similar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
19.6%
Perry Hills run for 1 yd to the Wisc 13Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+6
19.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to DeAndre Lane for 6 yds to the Wisc 7Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
21.6%
Wes Brown 7 Yd Run (Brad Craddock Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:0020% → 21%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
20.2%
Perry Hills run for 3 yds to the Mary 26Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+41
20.4%
Perry Hills pass complete to DeAndre Lane for 41 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
21.1%
Perry Hills run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 34Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-7
21.5%
Perry Hills sacked by Jack Cichy for a loss of 7 yards to the Wisc 41Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 18
OPP 41
0
21.3%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q1 6:30
4TH & 18
OPP 41
0
21.0%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the Wisc 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6TD
5 plays · 87 yds · 2:2779% → 81%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
21.2%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 8 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+1
21.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the Wisc 22Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
22.1%
Alec Ingold run for no gain to the Wisc 22Similar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+57
22.5%
Joe Schobert run for 57 yds to the Mary 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
18.8%
Dare Ogunbowale 21 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 5:0620% → 23%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
19.8%
Wes Brown run for 12 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
20.1%
Perry Hills run for 8 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
20.7%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+2
20.5%
Perry Hills run for 2 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
20.7%
Perry Hills run for 1 yd to the Mary 43Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+43
21.1%
William Likely run for 43 yds to the Wisc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
22.2%
Wes Brown run for no gain to the Wisc 14Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
22.3%
Wes Brown run for 1 yd to the Wisc 13Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 9
OPP 13
-12
22.0%
Perry Hills sacked by Vince Biegel for a loss of 12 yards to the Wisc 25Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 21
OPP 25
+44
22.9%
Adam Greene 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0577% → 76%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
23.5%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
23.6%
Joel Stave pass intercepted Jalen Brooks return for 4 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1526% → 24%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
25.6%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
25.6%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
25.0%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
24.1%
Adam Greene 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:5977% → 74%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
23.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Derek Watt for 16 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
22.9%
Stave, Joel pass incomplete to Erickson, Alex, PENALTY MARYLAND pass interference (Nixon, Anthony) 15 yards to the MARYLAND41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
22.8%
Joel Stave sacked by Roman Braglio for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 43Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 12
OPP 43
-7
23.1%
Joel Stave sacked by Denzel Conyers for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 19
50
-5
24.2%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Walker Williams) to the Wisc 45Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 24
OWN 45
-10
24.7%
Joel Stave sacked by Jesse Aniebonam for a loss of 10 yards to the Wisc 35Similar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 34
OWN 35
+41
25.7%
Drew Meyer punt for 41 yds , William Likely returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11INT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:1625% → 25%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
24.9%
Wes Brown run for 1 yd to the Mary 24Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-12
24.8%
MARYLAND Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Wes Brown) to the Mary 12Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 21
OWN 12
-1
24.9%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 11Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 22
OWN 11
+24
24.5%
Perry Hills pass intercepted Tanner McEvoy return for 24 yds to the Mary 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1577% → 79%
Q2 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
23.3%
Tanner McEvoy run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 12Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
22.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Mary 10Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
23.8%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q2 7:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
20.7%
Rafael Gaglianone 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:2722% → 22%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
21.9%
Shane Cockerille run for 13 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
23.1%
William Likely run for 8 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+5
24.0%
Wes Brown run for 5 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
24.1%
Wes Brown run for 4 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+5
24.4%
Shane Cockerille run for 5 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 1
OPP 32
-5
24.5%
Shane Cockerille run for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 37Similar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 6
OPP 37
-5
22.4%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 42Similar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
21.6%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the Wisc 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0379% → 78%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
20.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Wisc 18Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 18
-1
21.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 17Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+5
21.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 5 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
22.5%
TEAM punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 0:1626% → 34%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
25.9%
Perry Hills run for 1 yd to the Wisc 32Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-8
25.9%
Perry Hills sacked by Jack Cichy for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 40Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 17
OPP 40
+40
34.2%
D.J. Moore 40 Yd pass from Perry Hills (Adam Greene Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0569% → 69%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
30.7%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
31.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 4:2768% → 64%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-5
32.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 4Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 15
OWN 4
+3
33.1%
Taiwan Deal run for 3 yds to the Wisc 7Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 12
OWN 7
+18
34.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 18 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
33.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 24Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
33.6%
Stave, Joel pass incomplete to Erickson, Alex, PENALTY MARYLAND holding (Likely, William) 10 yards to the WISCONSIN34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
33.4%
Taiwan Deal run for 7 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+1
31.7%
Alex Erickson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 42Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 2
OWN 42
-2
32.4%
Alec Ingold run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 40Similar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
35.7%
Drew Meyer punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2238% → 37%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
38.0%
William Likely run for 5 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
39.0%
Perry Hills pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 4 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-3
38.4%
Wes Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 26Similar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+2
36.9%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 29 yds , Alex Erickson return for no gain to the Wisc 45, WISCONSIN Penalty, Illegal Block (Natrell Jamerson) to the Wisc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:3464% → 76%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+20
35.7%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 20 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
33.2%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
33.4%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+22
34.3%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 22 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
32.3%
Taiwan Deal run for 2 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+9
32.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 9 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
33.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Tanner McEvoy for 12 yds to the Mary 2 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (1 Yards) to the Mary 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.3%
Alec Ingold 1 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 0
OWN 3
-5
23.6%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:3524% → 23%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
23.9%
Ty Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-10
24.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive Holding (Perry Hills) to the Mary 13Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+15
23.9%
Ty Johnson run for 15 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+12
23.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to Malcolm Culmer for 12 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
26.5%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 41Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
25.9%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
24.8%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Jahrvis DavenportSimilar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
23.2%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 30 yds , Alex Erickson returns for no gain to the Wisc 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 3:0779% → 93%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
21.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 16 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+30
19.7%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 30 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
18.8%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+6
18.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 6 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
18.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 16Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+9
16.9%
Joel Stave pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 3 yds to the Mary 13 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Roughing Passer (Yannick Ngakoue) to the Mary 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
7.0%
Dare Ogunbowale 7 Yd pass from Joel Stave (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:0311% → 10%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
11.0%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
10.7%
Wes Brown run for 4 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-5
11.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Amba Etta-Tawo) to the Mary 34Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
10.0%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
10.0%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the Wisc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:1093% → 94%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
7.5%
Taiwan Deal run for 3 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+16
6.7%
Joel Stave pass complete to Derek Watt for 16 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
6.2%
Taiwan Deal run for 14 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
5.8%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
5.8%
Taiwan Deal run for 4 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 6
OPP 28
-8
5.7%
Joel Stave sacked by Quinton Jefferson for a loss of 8 yards to the Mary 36Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 14
OPP 36
0
5.8%
Drew Meyer punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:167% → 7%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
7.0%
Caleb Rowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
6.9%
Caleb Rowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
6.7%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Malcolm CulmerSimilar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
6.7%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the Wisc 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:3395% → 95%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
5.2%
Taiwan Deal run for no gain to the Wisc 48Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
5.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 9 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
5.0%
Taiwan Deal run for 3 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
4.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 44Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 14
OPP 44
0
4.6%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 14
OPP 44
0
4.6%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
4.8%
Drew Meyer punt for 37 yds, downed at the Mary 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26INT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:535% → 5%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
5.0%
Caleb Rowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+5
4.9%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Joe Schobert) to the Mary 12Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+8
5.1%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 8 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
5.1%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 8 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
5.5%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
5.2%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+15
5.2%
Caleb Rowe pass intercepted Tanner McEvoy return for 15 yds to the Mary 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27MISSED FG
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:2496% → 96%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
4.1%
Deal, Taiwan rush for no gain to the MARYLAND29, PENALTY WISCONSIN illegal shift 5 yards to the MARYLAND34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+6
4.0%
Taiwan Deal run for 6 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+3
3.7%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+1
3.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the Mary 24Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+42
3.6%
Rafael Gaglianone 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 28TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 1:213% → 23%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
3.0%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to D.J. Moore for 11 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
3.0%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to DeAndre LaneSimilar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+21
3.0%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 21 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
3.3%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Jahrvis DavenportSimilar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
3.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Andrew Zeller) to the Wisc 49Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+16
3.0%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to DeAndre Lane for 16 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
3.5%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Vince Biegel) to the Wisc 28Similar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 5
OPP 28
0
3.5%
Caleb Rowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
3.5%
Caleb Rowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+6
3.4%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 6 yds to the Wisc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
3.5%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+27
23.1%
Levern Jacobs 27 Yd pass from Caleb Rowe (Adam Greene Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 29END OF GAME
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:2093% → 96%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
7.5%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+5
7.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
4.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+3
5.1%
Joel Stave run for 3 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
4.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:39
Levern Jacobs 27 Yd pass from Caleb Rowe (Adam Greene Kick)
+19.6
TD · Q3 5:17
Alec Ingold 1 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)
-13.8
TD · Q2 0:49
D.J. Moore 40 Yd pass from Perry Hills (Adam Greene Kick)
+11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com