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ILL

Illinois 0 at Penn State 39

PSU
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:05 · Brandon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Illin 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:52: Chris Godwin 5 Yd pass from Christian Hackenberg (Joey Julius PAT blocked) — PSU win probability +2.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:16: Geno Lewis 6 Yd pass from Christian Hackenberg (Joey Julius PAT blocked) — PSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 4:16: Tyler Davis 42 Yd Field Goal — PSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Taylor Zalewski kickoff for 65 yds , Koa Farmer return for 57 yds to the Illin 43 — ILL win probability +3.9 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:18: Christian Hackenberg 14 Yd pass from Nick Scott (Tyler Davis Kick) — PSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7ILL made the numbers' call on 12 of 13
  1. Q1 13:48ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:58PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:30ILL 4th & 9 at PSU 48, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:27ILL 4th & 10 at PSU 49, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:36ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 46, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:41PSU 4th & 14 at PSU 43, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:13ILL 4th & 16 at ILL 10, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:16PSU 4th & 18 at ILL 25, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:50ILL 4th & 17 at PSU 40, down 15
    Close callPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    18.7%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:50ILL 4th & 30 at ILL 15, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−2.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:20PSU 4th & 4 at ILL 43, up 22
    Close callPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:56ILL 4th & 17 at ILL 13, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:56PSU 4th & 4 at ILL 11, up 22
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−2.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:39ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 44, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:00ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 45, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:45PSU 4th & 2 at ILL 23, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:01ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 15, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:13PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 45, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:12ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 26, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:12ILL 4th & 9 at PSU 40, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:52PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:16PSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:18PSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:07PSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:33PSU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:0235% → 35%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
64.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
64.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-4
64.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Delay of Game (Wes Lunt) to the Illin 22Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+2
64.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 2 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
64.8%
Ryan Frain punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4665% → 65%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
64.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 7 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-5
64.9%
Brandon Polk run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+6
64.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 6 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
64.6%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 35 yds, fair catch by V'Angelo Bentley at the Illin 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:1436% → 36%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
64.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 15 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
64.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
64.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+14
64.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 14 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
64.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
64.1%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:4864% → 67%
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
64.0%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
64.5%
Ryan Frain punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
64.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 9 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
64.7%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
64.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+31
64.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 31 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
65.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 5 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+19
65.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 19 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
65.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Illin 4Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
65.1%
Brandon Polk run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 5Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
67.2%
Chris Godwin 5 Yd pass from Christian Hackenberg (Joey Julius PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:1934% → 34%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
66.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 13 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
66.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 12 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
65.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 5 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
65.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+44
65.8%
Wes Lunt pass intercepted Troy Reeder return for 44 yds to the Illin 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6TD
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
71.9%
Geno Lewis 6 Yd pass from Christian Hackenberg (Joey Julius PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:3531% → 30%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
68.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+7
69.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 7 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+10
69.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 10 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
69.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 1 yd to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
69.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
70.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q1 1:30
4TH & 9
OPP 48
+18
69.9%
Ryan Frain punt for 33 yds, downed at the PnSt 15 ILLINOIS Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the PnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:2572% → 74%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
71.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 7 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
72.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+10
72.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 10 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
73.3%
Hackenberg, Christian pass incomplete to Hamilton, DaeSean, PENALTY ILLINOIS pass interference (Spence, Eaton) 16 yards to the ILLINOIS37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
73.5%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the Illin 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
73.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 1 yd DeAndre Thompkins fumbled, forced by Clayton Fejedelem, recovered by Illin Taylor BartonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:1630% → 29%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
70.1%
Lunt, Wes pass incomplete to Allison, Geronimo, PENALTY ILLINOIS ineligible downfield on pass (Karras, Ted) 5 yards to the ILLINOIS32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:37
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+6
70.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 6 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
70.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Dionte TaylorSimilar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+13
70.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 13 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
69.8%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
70.3%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
70.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
71.2%
Ryan Frain punt for 39 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:1973% → 73%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
73.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 9 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 1
OWN 19
-5
73.7%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Dawuane Smoot for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 14Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 6
OWN 14
0
73.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0430% → 27%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
70.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 15
OWN 42
0
72.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+4
72.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 4 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
72.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
73.5%
Ryan Frain punt for 32 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4975% → 75%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
75.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 13 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
75.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 9 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
76.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
77.1%
Christian Hackenberg run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 7
50
0
77.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 7
50
-7
76.1%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Tre Watson for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
74.7%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 41 yds, fair catch by V'Angelo Bentley at the Illin 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2225% → 24%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
74.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 3 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
75.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 7
OWN 19
-9
75.6%
Wes Lunt sacked by Austin Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 10Similar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 16
OWN 10
0
76.2%
Ryan Frain punt for 33 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the Illin 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5178% → 79%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
77.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 11 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
77.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 15 yds to the Illin 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-8
78.1%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Jihad Ward for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 25Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 18
OPP 25
0
78.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 18
OPP 25
0
77.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 18
OPP 25
+42
79.1%
Tyler Davis 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 3:1721% → 19%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
79.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 21 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
78.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 11 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
77.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-5
77.9%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Andrew Davis) to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+9
78.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 9 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+3
78.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-7
77.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 40 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Illin Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 17
OPP 40
0
79.5%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 17
OPP 40
0
80.5%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 17
OPP 40
0
80.9%
Ryan Frain punt for 35 yds, downed at the PnSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:1384% → 86%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
84.1%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 5Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+9
84.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 9 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+1
85.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:2985% → 95%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
84.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
84.6%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+16
84.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 16 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
85.0%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+9
85.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 9 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 1
OPP 18
-15
85.1%
Barkley, Saquon rush for 6 yards to the ILLINOIS12, PENALTY PENNST personal foul (Palmer, Paris) 15 yards to the ILLINOIS33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 16
OPP 33
+19
85.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 19 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
94.9%
Christian Hackenberg 14 Yd pass from Nick Scott (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -20 yds · 1:207% → 5%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
93.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
94.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Dionte TaylorSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 15
OWN 30
-15
94.5%
Wes Lunt sacked by Anthony Zettel for a loss of 15 yards to the Illin 15Similar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 30
OWN 15
+3
94.6%
Ryan Frain punt for 37 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 3 yds to the Illin 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2295% → 96%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
95.4%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 13
OWN 48
0
95.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+9
95.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 9 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
95.5%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:155% → 4%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
94.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-9
95.2%
Wes Lunt sacked by Carl Nassib for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 13Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 17
OWN 13
0
95.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
95.8%
Ryan Frain punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:5496% → 99%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
96.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+17
96.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 17 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
96.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 10 yds to the Illin 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
96.4%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 20Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+3
96.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+6
97.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Brandon Polk for 6 yds to the Illin 11Similar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+28
98.7%
Tyler Davis 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 2:062% → 1%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
98.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 7 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+1
98.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 36Similar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+10
98.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 10 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
98.1%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Pat Flavin) to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 15
OWN 41
0
98.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
98.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Dionte TaylorSimilar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+3
98.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 3 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 1:39
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
98.6%
Ryan Frain punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:2699% → 100%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
99.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 22 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+16
99.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 16 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
99.3%
Brandon Polk run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+19
99.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 19 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
99.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 17 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Saquon Barkley 7 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:030% → 0%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+13
99.9%
Chayce Crouch run for 13 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
Chayce Crouch run for 2 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
99.9%
Chayce Crouch run for 7 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-3
99.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25TD
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:19100% → 100%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
99.9%
Akeel Lynch run for 4 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+7
99.9%
Trace McSorley run for 7 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
99.9%
Trace McSorley run for 8 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+3
99.9%
Mark Allen run for 3 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the Illin 20Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Mark Allen 20 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:590% → 0%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
100.0%
Henry Enyenihi run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 12Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 11
OWN 12
0
100.0%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Dionte TaylorSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+3
100.0%
Chayce Crouch run for 3 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 8
OWN 15
+39
100.0%
Ryan Frain punt for 39 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
100.0%
Johnathan Thomas run for 3 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-5
100.0%
PENN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Trace McSorley) to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+2
100.0%
Johnathan Thomas run for 2 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 47 yds, downed at the Illin 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 28FUMBLE
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+17
100.0%
Cameron Tucker run for 17 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Cameron Tucker run for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Chayce Crouch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+1
100.0%
Ryan Frain punt for 34 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 41 DeAndre Thompkins fumbled, recovered by Illin Michael MartinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 29DOWNS
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
100.0%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
100.0%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+1
100.0%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Nathan Echard for 1 yd to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 9
OPP 40
-3
100.0%
Chayce Crouch sacked by Curtis Cothran for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
100.0%
Brandon Johnson run for 14 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
100.0%
PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the Illin 48Similar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+3
100.0%
Brandon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Illin 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:18
Christian Hackenberg 14 Yd pass from Nick Scott (Tyler Davis Kick)
+9.3
TD · Q1 4:16
Geno Lewis 6 Yd pass from Christian Hackenberg (Joey Julius PAT blocked)
+6.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Taylor Zalewski kickoff for 65 yds , Koa Farmer return for 57 yds to the Illin 43
-3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com