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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreMICH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:04 · Blake O'Neill punt for 49 yds, downed at the Minn 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:17: Rashad Still 52 Yd pass from Mitch Leidner (Ryan Santoso Kick) — MINN win probability +11.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Ryan Santoso 32 Yd Field Goal — MINN win probability +10.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:22: Jabrill Peppers 6 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +14.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:49: Mitch Leidner 24 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick) — MINN win probability +17.2 pts (now 54%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:57: Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 12 yds for a TD, (Wilton Speight pass to Amara Darboh for Two-Point Conversion) — MICH win probability +40.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 11:37MINN 4th & 15 at MICH 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snapGo for it28.2%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.4%average punt
- Q1 4:47MINN 4th & 5 at MICH 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.0% before the snapGo for it31.8%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call31.8%92% to makePunt30.3%−1.6average punt
- Q2 14:05MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 29, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snapGo for it30.9%−0.339% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.2%average punt
- Q2 7:36MINN 4th & 9 at MICH 13, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.8% before the snapGo for it24.2%−0.428% to convertField goalTheir call24.6%85% to makePunt21.4%−3.3average punt
- Q2 5:39MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 44, up 8Close callPunted · 74.1% before the snapGo for it74.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.9%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:54MICH 4th & 6 at MINN 37, up 1Close callWent for it · 65.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.1%−<0.140% to convertField goal65.1%40% to makePunt63.8%−1.4average punt
- Q3 8:46MINN 4th & 15 at MICH 41, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snapGo for it29.9%−1.717% to convertField goal30.8%−0.832% to makePuntTheir call31.6%average punt
- Q3 7:23MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 11, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snapGo for it66.8%−2.435% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.3%average punt
- Q3 3:28MICH 4th & 5 at MINN 41, down 2Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 50.9% before the snapGo for it51.7%42% to convertField goal49.7%−2.132% to makePuntTheir call50.6%−1.2average punt
- Q3 1:41MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 47, up 2Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 54.8% before the snapGo for it55.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.5%−2.3average punt
- Q4 14:51MICH 4th & 17 at MICH 13, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snapGo for it38.7%−6.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.8%average punt
- Q4 11:43MINN 4th & 5 at MICH 29, up 2Close callKicked a field goal · 61.1% before the snapGo for it60.2%41% to convertField goalTheir call60.0%−0.258% to makePunt46.2%−14.0average punt
- Q4 10:04MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 31, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snapGo for it32.9%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.9%average punt
- Q4 8:36MINN 4th & 19 at MINN 11, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snapGo for it64.6%−9.610% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.2%average punt
- Q4 1:17MINN 4th & 5 at MICH 39, down 3Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 32.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.9%−1.842% to convertField goal25.7%36% to makePunt14.4%−11.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 0:38MICH Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.6%97% to makeGo for two68.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:14MICH Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.3%97% to makeGo for two74.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:17MINN Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.0%97% to makeGo for two36.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:22MICH Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.7%97% to makeGo for two66.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:49MINN Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.7%97% to makeGo for two53.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:57MICH Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick58.0%−1.397% to makeGo for twoTheir call59.4%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMINNDrive 1PUNT12 plays · 26 yds · 3:1824% → 26%
Q1 14:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+17
24.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 17 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+7
25.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 7 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 10
OPP 44
-5
25.6%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Winston DeLattiboudere) to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
25.6%
Peter Mortell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2INT8 plays · 30 yds · 3:0174% → 73%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
25.7%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Maurice Ways, broken up by Jack LynnSimilar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+9
26.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 9 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+15
26.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 15 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
26.7%
Jake Rudock pass intercepted Briean Boddy-Calhoun return for 5 yds to the Mich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3FG11 plays · 44 yds · 3:3728% → 30%
Q1 7:47
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+31
28.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 31 yds to the Mich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+11
28.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 11 yds to the Mich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
29.4%
Leidner, Mitch pass sacked for loss of 3 yards to the MICHIGAN7 (Morgan, Desmond), PENALTY MICHIGAN offside (Peppers, Jabrill) 2 yards to the MICHIGAN2, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD10 plays · 57 yds · 3:4671% → 73%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
29.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 8 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+18
29.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 18 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+15
29.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 15 yds to the Minn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
29.9%
Rudock, Jake pass incomplete to Butt, Jake, PENALTY MINNESOTA roughing holder (Johnson, Antonio) 1 yards to the MINNESOTA1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2828% → 28%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
28.2%
Leidner, Mitch pass sacked for loss of 0 yards to the MINNESOTA25 (Glasgow, Ryan;Wormley, Chris), PENALTY MINNESOTA illegal formation 5 yards to the MINNESOTA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+41
27.5%
Peter Mortell punt for 41 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 41 yds to the Minn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD5 plays · 29 yds · 1:4773% → 78%
Q2 13:21
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+13
27.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 13 yds to the Minn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7FG13 plays · 62 yds · 4:2223% → 25%
Q2 11:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
23.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 15 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
24.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 3
50
+5
24.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Maurice Hurst) to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
24.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew Wolitarsky, broken up by Jabrill PeppersSimilar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
23.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ Maye, broken up by Jarrod WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 1:2776% → 77%
MINNDrive 9TD3 plays · 76 yds · 1:1624% → 37%
MICHDrive 10FUMBLE10 plays · 31 yds · 3:0068% → 68%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
32.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 7 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
31.3%
Rudock, Jake pass pass intended for Peppers, Jabrill intercepted by Poock, Cody at the MINNESOTA46, Poock, Cody return 0 yards to the MINNESOTA46, PENALTY MINNESOTA pass interference (Poock, Cody) 15 yards to the MICHIGAN47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 6
OPP 37
-7
32.1%
Jake Rudock sacked by Eric Murray for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 44 Jake Rudock fumbled, forced by Eric Murray, recovered by Minn Eric Murray , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11END OF HALF7 plays · 41 yds · 0:4239% → 48%
MICHDrive 12TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3357% → 75%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
42.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 14 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
41.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 8 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+10
39.6%
Rudock, Jake pass incomplete to Darboh, Amara, PENALTY MINNESOTA holding (Myrick, Jalen) 10 yards to the MINNESOTA19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 38 yds · 2:2930% → 29%
Q3 10:31
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+40
30.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 40 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
33.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew Wolitarsky, broken up by Jarrod WilsonSimilar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 8
OPP 34
-7
33.7%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Jarrod Wilson for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 15
OPP 41
0
29.3%
Peter Mortell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1471% → 68%
Q3 8:10
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
29.8%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara Darboh, broken up by Jalen MyrickSimilar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 7
OWN 11
+22
31.7%
Blake O'Neill punt for 37 yds, fair catch by KiAnte Hardin at the Mich 48 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Dymonte Thomas) to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15TD3 plays · 33 yds · 0:5636% → 54%
MICHDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 34 yds · 2:1451% → 52%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
48.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 16 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 27 yds · 1:1052% → 54%
MICHDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2549% → 44%
Q3 1:01
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-10
50.7%
Johnson, Drake rush for 14 yards to the MICHIGAN40, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Glasgow, Graham) 10 yards to the MICHIGAN16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
52.8%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Drake Johnson, broken up by Theiren CockranSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
56.4%
Blake O'Neill punt for 61 yds , KJ Maye returns for no gain to the Minn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19FG6 plays · 45 yds · 2:5255% → 70%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+23
58.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 23 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1639% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 1:0271% → 70%
MICHDrive 22TD7 plays · 40 yds · 3:2540% → 78%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
59.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 9 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
59.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Khalid Hill for 8 yds to the Minn 20Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-3
62.1%
Jabrill Peppers sacked by Theiren Cockran for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 12Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+12
22.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 12 yds for a TD, (Wilton Speight pass to Amara Darboh for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23END OF GAME15 plays · 74 yds · 4:4934% → 37%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
34.2%
Smith, Rodney rush for 1 yard to the MINNESOTA26, PENALTY MINNESOTA illegal block (Pirsig, Jonah) 12 yards to the MINNESOTA13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+17
31.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 17 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+14
36.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 14 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+12
29.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 12 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+22
35.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 22 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:57
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 12 yds for a TD, (Wilton Speight pass to Amara Darboh for Two-Point Conversion)
-40
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-37.2
TD · Q3 5:49
Mitch Leidner 24 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick)
+17.2