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NU

Northwestern 30 at Nebraska 28

NEB
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDSAFETYTDTDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:09 · Sam Foltz punt for 55 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 55Pregame prior+13.6Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:07: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 10 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +11.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Jack Mitchell 28 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +10.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:59: Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +14.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:53: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 37 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +32.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:23: Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NEB win probability +30.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 9NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:50NU 4th & 8 at NU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:26NEB 4th & 10 at NU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    67.2%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:25NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 42, down 4
    Close callPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:21NEB 4th & 10 at NU 38, down 2
    Close callPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    64.8%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:03NU 4th & 7 at NU 23, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:10NEB 4th & 3 at NU 48, down 2
    Close callPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:41NU 4th & 8 at NU 22, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:09NEB 4th & 2 at NEB 45, down 2
    Close callPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:53NU 4th & 11 at NU 19, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:18NU 4th & 1 at NEB 1, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%−4.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−14.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:55NEB 4th & 17 at NU 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−4.6
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−3.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:53NU 4th & 10 at NU 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−3.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:41NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 26, up 2
    Close callPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:42NEB 4th & 20 at NEB 15, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−6.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:27NU 4th & 6 at NEB 9, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    51.9%−19.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:29NEB 4th & 6 at NU 40, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    14.2%−1.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:45NU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:17NU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:07NEB Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:59NEB Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:53NU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:23NEB Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    40.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    40.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0030% → 30%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
69.7%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 15Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+1
69.6%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 16Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
69.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:50
4TH & 8
OWN 16
0
69.7%
Hunter Niswander punt for 36 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:5470% → 70%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
69.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 47Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+9
69.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 9 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+6
69.6%
Imani Cross run for 6 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
69.7%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+7
69.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 7 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
69.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for no gain to the Nwest 26Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
69.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
69.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:26
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
69.5%
Drew Brown 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:1731% → 33%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+68
69.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 68 yds to the Neb 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
68.9%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 3Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
68.7%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Neb 1Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:1568% → 67%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
67.7%
Terrell Newby run for 8 yds to the Neb 17Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+3
67.5%
Andy Janovich run for 3 yds to the Neb 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
67.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 15 yds to the Neb 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
67.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 5 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
67.5%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
67.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Terrell NewbySimilar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
66.5%
Sam Foltz punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5SF
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-4
67.5%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Ross Dzuris for a loss of 4 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:5467% → 66%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
67.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
67.1%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+8
66.7%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (8 Yards) to the Neb 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
67.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 3 yds to the Neb 38Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+24
67.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 24 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
68.1%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-9
68.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 6 yds to the Nwest 30 NEBRASKA Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 17
OPP 45
0
67.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 17
OPP 45
+7
66.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 7 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
66.3%
Sam Foltz punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5734% → 34%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
65.7%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
65.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 1 yd to the Nwest 23Similar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
66.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q1 0:03
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+31
66.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 31 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5067% → 67%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
67.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
66.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 7 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
67.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
66.5%
Sam Foltz punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2435% → 34%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
65.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
65.1%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 19Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+3
65.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 3 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+41
66.0%
TEAM punt blocked by Andy Janovich blocked by Andy JanovichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5166% → 66%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
65.9%
Terrell Newby run for 9 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-1
67.0%
De'Mornay Pierson-El run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 45Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
66.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
65.7%
Sam Foltz punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5736% → 35%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
64.2%
Solomon Vault run for 3 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
64.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+5
64.7%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-9
63.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Nate Gerry for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 19Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
65.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12INT TD
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3367% → 57%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
67.2%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+1
67.2%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
66.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 5 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
67.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
66.8%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+72
56.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted for a TD Nick VanHoose return for 72 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5955% → 66%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.7%
Andy Janovich run for 1 yd to the Neb 26Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
52.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
51.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 12 yds to the Neb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
52.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 6 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+2
53.5%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
52.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 3 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
52.7%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+20
52.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jamal Turner for 20 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-6
53.5%
Imani Cross run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 16
OPP 35
0
52.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 16
OPP 35
+25
51.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 25 yds to the Nwest 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
54.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for no gain to the Nwest 10Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
66.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 10 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14END OF HALF
10 plays · 61 yds · 0:4740% → 56%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
59.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 8 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+4
58.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 4 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
57.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Mike McHughSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+49
58.0%
Clayton Thorson run for 49 yds to the Neb 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
54.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+28
43.7%
Jack Mitchell 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:5654% → 70%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.2%
Imani Cross run for 1 yd to the Neb 26Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
52.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
51.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 11 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
52.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 34Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 13
OWN 34
0
51.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+30
49.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 30 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
54.9%
Terrell Newby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 11
OPP 37
0
54.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+20
53.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Sideline Interference (16 Yards) to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
55.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-2
55.5%
Imani Cross run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 19Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+15
52.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Lane Hovey for 15 yds to the Nwest 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
55.1%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the Nwest 4Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
55.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q3 8:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
69.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:2036% → 46%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
64.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 14 yds to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
62.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
62.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jelani Roberts for 4 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+15
62.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 15 yds to the Neb 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
60.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Miles ShulerSimilar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+22
60.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Mike McHugh for 22 yds to the Neb 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
60.1%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Neb 2Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.3%
Clayton Thorson run for no gain to the Neb 1Similar
Q3 5:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
54.2%
Jack Mitchell 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 5:0057% → 64%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
56.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 13 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
58.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 6 yds to the Neb 43Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+5
60.6%
Imani Cross run for 5 yds to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
60.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Imani Cross for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 8
50
0
60.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 8
50
+15
59.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
62.7%
Imani Cross run for 6 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+5
62.7%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
61.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
60.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 1 yd to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 23
-8
58.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Dean Lowry for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 17
OPP 31
+48
64.3%
Drew Brown 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5636% → 32%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
64.6%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 25Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
66.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:53
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
67.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 56 yds, downed at the Neb 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5466% → 65%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
66.2%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Neb 21Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+5
65.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 5 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
66.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+6
65.3%
Sam Foltz punt for 63 yds , Miles Shuler returns for 6 yds to the Nwest 32 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Illegal Block (9 Yards) to the Nwest 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 2:4834% → 72%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
66.4%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
65.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
65.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+15
67.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 15 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
63.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
63.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 5 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+9
62.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 9 yds to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
60.2%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+8
60.1%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
28.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 37 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:0339% → 34%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Taariq AllenSimilar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
38.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
36.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Dean Lowry for a loss of 10 yards to the Neb 15Similar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+21
34.4%
Sam Foltz punt for 46 yds , Miles Shuler returns for 21 yds to the Neb 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22FG
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:5374% → 84%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+27
26.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 27 yds to the Neb 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
24.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
24.2%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Neb 9Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
25.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
16.2%
Jack Mitchell 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5420% → 53%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
20.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 14 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
19.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 17 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
21.1%
Imani Cross run for 4 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
21.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
19.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+37
17.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 37 yds to the Nwest 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
21.9%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the Nwest 3Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24END OF GAME
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:0468% → 94%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
28.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+28
29.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 28 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
22.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Neb 38Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+8
18.4%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Neb 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
12.7%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Neb 27 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (14 Yards) to the Neb 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-8
12.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Neb 21Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 18
OPP 21
-2
8.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 23Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 20
OPP 23
-2
5.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:53
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 37 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
-32.1
TD · Q4 4:23
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+30.7
TD · Q3 8:59
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+14.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com