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IU

Indiana 26 at Michigan State 52

MSU
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:01 · Erich Toth punt for 39 yds, downed at the MchSt 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Pregame prior+33.2Home team on offense−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:37: Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 11 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:07: Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK) — IU win probability +9.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:07: Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 13 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +6.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:45: Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Andre Booker for 3 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes PAT MISSED) — IU win probability +10.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:57: Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 13:22MSU 4th & 19 at IU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:01IU 4th & 10 at IU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:26IU 4th & 5 at MSU 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    15.6%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:39MSU 4th & 10 at IU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    83.6%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:11MSU 4th & 10 at IU 17, up 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.9%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    77.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:47MSU 4th & 18 at MSU 17, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−4.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:52IU 4th & 1 at IU 27, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:43MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 10, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−1.9
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:28IU 4th & 4 at MSU 24, down 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.4%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−8.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:44MSU 4th & 3 at IU 3, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.3%−2.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−16.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:19IU 4th & 11 at IU 42, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:52IU 4th & 5 at IU 44, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:12IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:56MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:56MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:19IU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    19.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:37MSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:07IU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:07MSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:45IU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:57MSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:17MSU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:17MSU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IUDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.6%
Nate Sudfeld pass intercepted Grayson Miller return for no gain to the Ind 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:2089% → 88%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
88.6%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 38Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-8
88.4%
Connor Cook sacked by T.J. Simmons for a loss of 8 yards to the Ind 46Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 19
OPP 46
0
88.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 19
OPP 46
0
88.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:0212% → 14%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
88.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 18 yds to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
88.0%
Jordan Howard run for no gain to the Ind 38Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
87.9%
Jordan Howard run for 4 yds to the Ind 42Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+13
87.7%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Ricky Jones for 13 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
87.5%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 10 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
87.3%
Mike Majette run for 1 yd to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+16
87.1%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 16 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
87.0%
Mike Majette run for 3 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+10
86.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Andre Booker for 10 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
85.6%
Jordan Howard run for 5 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:0386% → 86%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
85.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 10 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
85.6%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 31Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+18
85.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 18 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
85.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the Ind 49Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
85.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+31
85.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 31 yds to the Ind 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-4
85.2%
Damion Terry run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 22Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 14
OPP 22
0
84.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Jamal LylesSimilar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 14
OPP 22
+22
86.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 22 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4614% → 15%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.7%
Devine Redding run for no gain to the Ind 25Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Ind Nate SudfeldSimilar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+5
85.6%
Devine Redding run for 5 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
85.5%
Erich Toth punt for 39 yds, downed at the MchSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:5285% → 87%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
85.3%
Connor Cook run for 7 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
85.4%
Delton Williams run for 2 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
85.2%
Connor Cook run for 3 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
85.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 11 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+28
85.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 28 yds to the Ind 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
85.3%
Connor Cook sacked by Tegray Scales for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 14Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+4
85.1%
Damion Terry run for 4 yds to the Ind 10Similar
Q1 0:14
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+8
84.7%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tyler Green) to the Ind 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
84.9%
Delton Williams run for 1 yd to the Ind 1Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.2%
Delton Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 2:1614% → 15%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.3%
Mike Majette run for no gain to the Ind 20Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
86.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 8 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+9
86.1%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 9 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
85.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Jordan HowardSimilar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
85.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Mitchell PaigeSimilar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+14
86.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 14 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
85.1%
Jordan Howard run for 5 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
84.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
85.1%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
85.5%
Erich Toth punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 1:3586% → 86%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
86.2%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
86.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+15
85.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 15 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
86.5%
Connor Cook run for 20 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
86.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
86.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Gerald HolmesSimilar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
86.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
85.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ind 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 94 yds · 2:0314% → 20%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+37
85.7%
Jordan Howard run for 37 yds to the Ind 43 Jordan Howard fumbled, forced by Arjen Colquhoun, recovered by IndSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
85.0%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Damon Graham for 18 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
84.4%
Jordan Howard run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+15
84.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Demetrius Cooper) to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
83.4%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Ricky Jones for 4 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Arjen Colquhoun) to the MchSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
79.7%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Ricky Jones for 11 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:3283% → 88%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
82.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 20Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
82.2%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Zack Shaw) to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
82.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 8 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
82.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Paul Lang for 5 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
82.6%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the MchSt 38Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
82.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+12
81.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
50
+1
83.0%
Delton Williams run for 1 yd to the Ind 49Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+21
82.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Paul Lang for 21 yds to the Ind 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
83.2%
R.J. Shelton run for 2 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+11
83.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 11 yds to the Ind 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
82.9%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the Ind 15Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
82.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 4 yds to the Ind 11Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
87.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 11 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 0:1914% → 23%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
86.3%
Jordan Howard run for 11 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
86.0%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+29
86.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 29 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
76.7%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12FUMBLE
10 plays · 57 yds · 0:5281% → 80%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
80.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 12 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
81.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+16
80.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 16 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+31
81.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 31 yds to the Ind 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
82.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
82.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
81.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 10
OPP 17
-1
79.6%
Matt Macksood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 18 Matt Macksood fumbled, forced by Marcus Oliver, recovered by Ind Adarius RaynerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
78.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14TD
14 plays · 42 yds · 3:3582% → 87%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
81.5%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the Ind 42Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
81.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 11 yds to the Ind 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
81.5%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the Ind 27 LJ Scott fumbled, recovered by MchSt LJ ScottSimilar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
81.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
80.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+12
79.1%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jameel Cook Jr.) to the Ind 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
81.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+8
81.0%
R.J. Shelton run for 8 yds to the Ind 7Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+4
79.9%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the Ind 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
80.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Donavon Clark) to the Ind 13Similar
Q3 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
0
80.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q3 11:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
80.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q3 11:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
87.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 13 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:1815% → 28%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.5%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.6%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 6 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
85.5%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 5 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
84.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 19 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+35
83.5%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 35 yds to the MchSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
82.2%
Jordan Howard run for 7 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Andre Booker for 3 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:2977% → 75%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
76.9%
Connor Cook sacked by T.J. Simmons for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 17Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
76.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
75.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+1
74.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 56 yds , Mitchell Paige returns for 1 yd to the Ind 18 INDIANA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Ind 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:2325% → 23%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
75.5%
Jordan Howard run for 9 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 1
OWN 27
0
74.1%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Jordan HowardSimilar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
75.5%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
76.9%
Erich Toth punt for 62 yds, downed at the MchSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5076% → 73%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-3
75.9%
Delton Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 8Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 13
OWN 8
+7
75.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 7 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 6
OWN 15
-5
73.7%
Connor Cook sacked by T.J. Simmons and Zack Shaw for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 10Similar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 11
OWN 10
+2
73.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 33 yds , Mitchell Paige returns for 2 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19MISSED FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:0329% → 28%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
70.8%
Mike Majette run for 9 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+2
69.2%
Mike Majette run for 2 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
68.9%
Mike Majette run for 6 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 4
OPP 24
0
68.4%
Nate Sudfeld pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
69.7%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Mike MajetteSimilar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
72.2%
Griffin Oakes 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20FG
15 plays · 73 yds · 6:2674% → 79%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
74.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 11 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
74.4%
Connor Cook run for 6 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
76.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
75.5%
Connor Cook run for 2 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
76.0%
Damion Terry run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 6
50
+20
76.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 20 yds to the Ind 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
77.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 8 yds to the Ind 22Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+3
77.5%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the Ind 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
77.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+9
77.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Paul Lang for 9 yds to the Ind 10Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+2
76.0%
Connor Cook run for 2 yds to the Ind 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
77.0%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the Ind 8Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
78.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q4 12:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
76.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 5 yds to the Ind 3Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
78.9%
Michael Geiger 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:0625% → 25%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Ricky Jones for 7 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
71.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 1 yd to the Ind 33Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
73.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Ricky Jones for 10 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
71.7%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (Dimitric Camiel) to the Ind 38Similar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 15
OWN 38
-8
73.8%
Nate Sudfeld sacked by Joel Heath for a loss of 8 yards to the Ind 30Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 23
OWN 30
0
74.7%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 23
OWN 30
+12
76.0%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Damon Graham for 12 yds to the Ind 42Similar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 11
OWN 42
+17
75.5%
Erich Toth punt for 46 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 17 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 3:4682% → 97%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
81.8%
Damion Terry run for 4 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+28
84.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 28 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
86.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
86.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+15
85.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 15 yds to the Ind 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
89.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 9 yds to the Ind 15Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+4
89.9%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the Ind 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
90.2%
LJ Scott run for 8 yds to the Ind 3Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 2
OPP 3
-2
90.4%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 5Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 4
OPP 5
-5
89.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Ind 10Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
96.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:584% → 4%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-8
95.6%
Nate Sudfeld sacked by Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 8 yards to the Ind 31Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 18
OWN 31
0
96.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 18
OWN 31
+13
96.6%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 13 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
96.1%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:3097% → 99%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
97.0%
Delton Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 46Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+18
97.1%
LJ Scott run for 18 yds to the Ind 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
97.7%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+26
99.3%
LJ Scott run for 26 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:1399% → 100%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the Ind 22Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+22
99.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 22 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:150% → 0%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
100.0%
Jordan Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 1Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+3
100.0%
Jordan Howard run for 3 yds to the Ind 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:45
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Andre Booker for 3 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes PAT MISSED)
-10
TD · Q2 1:07
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q4 4:57
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com