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PSU

Penn State 31 at Maryland 30

MD
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · M&T Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:22 · Daniel Pasquariello punt for 39 yds , William Likely returns for 6 yds to the Mary 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Pregame prior−13.8Home team on offense−4.4Score differential−2.5Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:09: Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 37 yds for a TD MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Anthony Nixon) declined, (Joey Julius KICK) — PSU win probability +16.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:17: Brandon Ross run for 10 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK) — MD win probability +15.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:32: Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 20 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK) — PSU win probability +15.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:51: Perry Hills pass complete to DeAndre Lane for 10 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK) — MD win probability +22.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:39: Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 27 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK) — PSU win probability +32.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 6 of 8PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 7:31MD 4th & 24 at PSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:53PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:03PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:44MD 4th & 7 at PSU 33, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:35MD 4th & 5 at PSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:51MD 4th & 9 at PSU 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−6.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:40MD 4th & 13 at MD 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−2.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:31PSU 4th & 8 at MD 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−5.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:22PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 35, up 4
    Close callPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:15MD 4th & 11 at PSU 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−2.8
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−14.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:42PSU 4th & 10 at MD 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−2.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−16.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:51MD 4th & 2 at MD 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.1%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:05MD 4th & 10 at PSU 45, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.8%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    40.5%
    25% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−3.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:21PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 42, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−1.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 2:49PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:36MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:09PSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:17MD Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:32PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:51MD Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:39PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1INT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:0924% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
23.6%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for 16 yds to the Mary 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
23.9%
Brandon Ross run for 16 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
24.2%
Perry Hills pass complete to Brandon Ross for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+16
24.5%
Perry Hills run for 16 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
24.7%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 15
OPP 35
-6
25.0%
Perry Hills pass complete to Wes Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 21
OPP 41
0
25.4%
Perry Hills pass intercepted Grant Haley return for no gain to the PnSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:1175% → 75%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
25.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+2
25.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 6Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 8
OWN 6
0
25.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Brandon PolkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:1626% → 27%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
26.1%
Brandon Ross run for 3 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+24
26.6%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 24 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
27.1%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+1
27.1%
Brandon Ross run for 1 yd to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 15
OPP 39
-9
27.2%
Perry Hills sacked by Marcus Allen for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 24
OPP 48
0
27.4%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3873% → 72%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
27.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
27.5%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 14 Saquon Barkley fumbled, recovered by PnSt Brian GaiaSimilar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
27.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 10
OWN 14
+10
28.1%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 35 yds , William Likely returns for 10 yds to the Mary 24 MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Block (Alvin Hill) to the Mary 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:4629% → 30%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
28.5%
Perry Hills pass complete to Wes Brown for 7 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+17
29.1%
Perry Hills run for 17 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
29.6%
Wes Brown run for 4 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+7
29.9%
Brandon Ross run for 7 yds to the PnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
30.1%
Perry Hills run for 11 yds to the PnSt 17 Perry Hills fumbled, forced by John Reid, recovered by PnSt Marcus Allen , return for 9 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 2:1871% → 75%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
28.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+38
29.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 38 yds to the Mary 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
28.1%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Brian Gaia) to the Mary 46Similar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 15
OPP 46
0
28.6%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the Mary 46Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+40
29.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 40 yds to the Mary 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
25.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 6 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:0527% → 33%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
26.5%
Perry Hills run for 7 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+48
27.1%
Perry Hills pass complete to Malcolm Culmer for 48 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
32.8%
Perry Hills run for 12 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3370% → 68%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
30.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 10 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
30.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
30.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-1
30.9%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Yannick Ngakoue for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 0:03
4TH & 11
OWN 27
+7
31.9%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 34 yds , William Likely returns for 7 yds to the Mary 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:1933% → 35%
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
33.3%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Mary 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+17
33.2%
William Likely run for 17 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
33.9%
William Likely run for 7 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 3
OPP 29
-3
34.8%
Wes Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-5
34.9%
MARYLAND Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+4
34.6%
Perry Hills pass complete to Wes Brown for 4 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+51
34.7%
Brad Craddock 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10FUMBLE
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
32.4%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 31 Saquon Barkley fumbled, forced by Tyler Burke, recovered by Mary A.J. HendySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0437% → 38%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
36.7%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+6
36.9%
Brandon Ross run for 6 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+1
37.0%
Perry Hills run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+44
37.7%
Brad Craddock 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:5263% → 61%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
36.8%
Nick Scott run for 1 yd to the PnSt 24Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-9
37.2%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Yannick Ngakoue for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 15 PENN ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Christian Hackenberg) to the PnSt 15Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 18
OWN 15
0
38.5%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 15Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 18
OWN 15
0
39.5%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 37 yds, downed at the Mary 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:5241% → 49%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
41.0%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for 14 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
41.7%
Ty Johnson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+8
42.6%
Perry Hills run for 8 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
43.0%
Ty Johnson run for 8 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+9
43.5%
Perry Hills pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 9 yds to the PnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
43.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to William Likely for 4 yds to the PnSt 6Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
44.5%
Perry Hills run for 4 yds to the PnSt 2Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-7
43.8%
Perry Hills run for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 9 Perry Hills fumbled, forced by Marcus Allen, recovered by MarySimilar
Q2 3:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
49.0%
Brad Craddock 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4252% → 68%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
47.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 38 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
31.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 37 yds for a TD MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Anthony Nixon) declined, (Joey Julius KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:2937% → 35%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
36.5%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-3
36.1%
Perry Hills sacked by Anthony Zettel for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 26Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 13
OWN 26
0
35.5%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
35.2%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 35 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 1:5467% → 71%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
33.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 17 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
33.5%
Christian Hackenberg run for no gain to the Mary 44Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
31.8%
Trace McSorley sacked by Nicolas Pritchard for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+24
33.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 24 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
29.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
29.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 2 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
31.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
28.8%
Joey Julius 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:1233% → 33%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
33.0%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
32.9%
Wes Brown run for 9 yds to the Mary 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3069% → 68%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
31.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
31.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+7
32.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 7 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+6
32.4%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 39 yds , William Likely returns for 6 yds to the Mary 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:0533% → 52%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
33.4%
Perry Hills run for 1 yd to the Mary 33Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+6
33.3%
Perry Hills run for 6 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+9
34.7%
Perry Hills run for 9 yds to the Mary 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
36.2%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
35.9%
Perry Hills run for 6 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+36
36.7%
Perry Hills run for 36 yds to the PnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
39.1%
Perry Hills run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 12Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
39.3%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the PnSt 10Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
52.1%
Brandon Ross run for 10 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:4553% → 70%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
46.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 9 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+5
44.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
46.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
44.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 7 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+31
44.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 31 yds to the Mary 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
42.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
26.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 20 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-5
29.7%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21TD
13 plays · 88 yds · 4:4133% → 62%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
32.9%
Perry Hills run for 1 yd to the Mary 13Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+15
32.3%
Brandon Ross run for 15 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
32.8%
MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mary 18Similar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+5
32.2%
Perry Hills run for 5 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+4
30.8%
William Likely run for 4 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+18
29.8%
Perry Hills pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 18 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
34.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 17 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
36.8%
Perry Hills run for 3 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+11
39.0%
Perry Hills pass complete to Malcolm Culmer for 11 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
39.3%
Perry Hills run for 14 yds to the PnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
61.6%
Perry Hills pass complete to DeAndre Lane for 10 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 2:1244% → 75%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
55.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+15
56.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (A.J. Hendy) to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
53.4%
Geno Lewis pass incomplete to Akeel LynchSimilar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
54.5%
PENN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
56.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+27
62.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 27 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
54.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+8
53.6%
Brandon Polk run for 8 yds to the Mary 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
54.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
24.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 27 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23FUMBLE
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:2436% → 49%
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+43
36.4%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 43 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
43.8%
Brandon Ross run for 2 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+2
44.2%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 2 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
41.6%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+9
38.8%
Craddock, Brad field goal attempt from 36 GOOD, clock 11:49, PENALTY PENNST roughing the kicker (Craddock, Brad) 9 yards to the PENNST9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARYLAND.Similar
Q4 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
44.7%
Perry Hills run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 11Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
44.9%
Perry Hills run for no gain to the PnSt 11Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
42.0%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Wes BrownSimilar
Q4 10:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
48.5%
Brad Craddock 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+34
56.1%
Perry Hills sacked by Brandon Bell for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 28 Perry Hills fumbled, forced by Brandon Bell, recovered by PnSt Garrett Sickels , return for 0 yards , return for 34 yds to the Mary 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1567% → 59%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
33.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
33.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
36.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
40.7%
Joey Julius 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26INT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5148% → 47%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
47.7%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Michael Dunn) to the Mary 23Similar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+5
46.6%
Wes Brown run for 5 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
47.1%
William Likely run for 2 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+6
45.8%
Perry Hills pass complete to Malcolm Culmer for 6 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
46.8%
Perry Hills pass intercepted Trevor Williams return for no gain to the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27FUMBLE
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:3462% → 66%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
37.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 9 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
33.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
34.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
50
0
32.3%
Christian Hackenberg run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
50
+1
33.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Mary 49Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-6
34.2%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by TEAM for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 45 Christian Hackenberg fumbled, recovered by Mary Denzel Conyers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 28DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:1255% → 48%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
54.9%
Brandon Ross run for no gain to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
54.7%
Perry Hills run for 5 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-5
54.7%
Perry Hills sacked by Carl Nassib for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 10
OPP 45
+7
48.0%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 7 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4468% → 71%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
32.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
31.3%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
27.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
29.1%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 33 yds, fair catch by William Likely at the Mary 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 30INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.2%
Perry Hills pass intercepted Malik Golden return for no gain to the Mary 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 31END OF GAME
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:4578% → 82%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
21.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 44Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 12
OPP 44
-2
20.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 46Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 14
OPP 46
-1
18.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:39
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 27 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)
-32.4
TD · Q3 0:51
Perry Hills pass complete to DeAndre Lane for 10 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)
+22.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-18
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com