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WIS

Wisconsin 24 at Illinois 13

ILL
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:30 · Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 12 yds Dionte Taylor fumbled, recovered by Wisc Chris Orr
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 169Pregame prior−0.1Home team on offense−32.5Score differential−11.3Garbage-time factor−14.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:23: Taylor Zalewski 25 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +4.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00: Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 21 — ILL win probability +6.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:48: Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 36 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +18.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:05: Alec Ingold run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +20.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:42: Bart Houston pass complete to Alex Erickson for 9 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +12.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 4 of 9WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:52ILL 4th & 8 at WIS 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    34.8%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:48WIS 4th & 13 at WIS 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:52ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:26WIS 4th & 30 at WIS 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:21ILL 4th & 17 at WIS 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:59ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 25, down 4
    Close callPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:03WIS 4th & 7 at ILL 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:23ILL 4th & 4 at WIS 7, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.9%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−7.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:44WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 41, up 4
    Close callPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:10ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 19, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:29WIS 4th & 7 at WIS 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:21ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 31, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:28ILL 4th & 12 at WIS 48, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:07WIS 4th & 11 at ILL 39, up 11
    Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    95.1%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:30ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:09WIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:48ILL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:05WIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:42WIS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 2:4333% → 34%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
32.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
33.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+11
33.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 11 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
33.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Caleb DaySimilar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
33.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Tyler WhiteSimilar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+11
33.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 11 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
34.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
34.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Caleb Day for 2 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
34.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
34.1%
Ryan Frain punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the Wisc 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0066% → 65%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
34.1%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-3
34.2%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 10Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 13
OWN 10
0
34.5%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 13
OWN 10
+16
34.7%
Drew Meyer punt for 53 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 16 yds to the Illin 26 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Illin 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:5135% → 35%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
34.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-3
34.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
34.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 13
OWN 40
-5
34.6%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 35Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
34.5%
Ryan Frain punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the Wisc 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -20 yds · 1:0865% → 64%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-13
34.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Wisc 31 WISCONSIN Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Wisc 16Similar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 23
OWN 16
0
35.0%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Dare OgunbowaleSimilar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 23
OWN 16
-4
35.2%
Joel Stave sacked by Carroll Phillips for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 12Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 27
OWN 12
-3
35.4%
Bart Houston sacked by Carroll Phillips for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 9Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 30
OWN 9
+9
35.9%
Drew Meyer punt for 37 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 9 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5FG
11 plays · 18 yds · 3:4236% → 38%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
36.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
36.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for no gain to the Wisc 32Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+7
36.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 7 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
37.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for no gain to the Wisc 25Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
37.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 13 yds to the Wisc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
37.7%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-10
37.9%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Wisc 22Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 20
OPP 22
+3
38.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Wisc 19Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 17
OPP 19
0
37.3%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:21
4TH & 17
OPP 19
+37
37.7%
Taylor Zalewski 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 4:4861% → 65%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
38.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the Wisc 12Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+35
39.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 35 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
37.8%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Eric SteffesSimilar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
38.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 4 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+10
37.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 10 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
38.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+3
38.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+8
38.9%
Bart Houston pass complete to Alex Erickson for 8 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
38.3%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Reggie LoveSimilar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
38.7%
Bart Houston run for 1 yd to the Illin 23Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+23
35.2%
Bart Houston pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 23 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0236% → 36%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
36.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+8
36.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 8 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
36.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
35.6%
Ryan Frain punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:3564% → 69%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
35.8%
Tanner McEvoy run for 4 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+16
35.6%
Bart Houston pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 16 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
34.9%
Bart Houston pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 5 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+7
34.8%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 7 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
34.8%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Eric SteffesSimilar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+14
34.9%
Bart Houston pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 14 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
34.5%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+12
34.7%
Bart Houston pass complete to Derek Watt for 12 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+8
34.6%
Bart Houston pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 8 yds to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
34.6%
Alec Ingold run for 2 yds to the Illin 9 Alec Ingold fumbled, recovered by WiscSimilar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+6
33.7%
Bart Houston pass complete to Alex Erickson for 6 yds to the Illin 3Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 2
OPP 3
0
34.1%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
30.9%
Rafael Gaglianone 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 2:1331% → 39%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
31.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 8 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+7
32.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 7 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+37
32.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 37 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
35.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+9
35.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 9 yds to the Wisc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
35.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
35.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Wisc 7Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
34.0%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
38.5%
Taylor Zalewski 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10INT
12 plays · 62 yds · 3:3664% → 68%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
35.8%
Bart Houston pass complete to Alex Erickson for 10 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
34.8%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+5
33.7%
Bart Houston pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 5 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+8
33.7%
Alec Ingold run for 8 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
32.5%
Alec Ingold run for 3 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
32.4%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+12
33.1%
Bart Houston pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 12 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+21
32.0%
Bart Houston pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 21 yds to the Illin 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
32.2%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Robert WheelwrightSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
32.2%
Bart Houston pass intercepted, touchback. Eaton Spence return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
38.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0564% → 63%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
36.2%
Alex Erickson run for 13 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
35.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 7 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
34.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for no gain to the Wisc 41Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
34.9%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q3 12:44
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+6
37.1%
Drew Meyer punt for 55 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 6 yds to the Illin 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0538% → 36%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
37.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 7 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+2
37.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 1
OWN 19
0
36.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Zach GrantSimilar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+1
35.8%
Ryan Frain punt for 49 yds , Alex Erickson returns for 1 yd to the Wisc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1364% → 61%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
36.0%
Bart Houston pass complete to Alex Erickson for 7 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 3
OWN 40
-4
34.8%
Alec Ingold run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
36.9%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q3 9:29
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+7
38.9%
Drew Meyer punt for 57 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 7 yds to the Illin 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:1538% → 59%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
38.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Caleb Day for 16 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
38.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 15 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
41.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+19
39.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 19 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
58.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 36 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:2647% → 71%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+56
53.3%
Alex Erickson run for 56 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
47.7%
Alex Erickson run for 8 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+3
47.5%
Bart Houston pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 3 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
47.8%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
48.2%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+9
49.4%
Bart Houston pass complete to Alex Erickson for 9 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
49.0%
Alec Ingold run for 3 yds to the Illin 2Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.9%
Alec Ingold run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3736% → 34%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
36.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 17Similar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 15
OWN 17
0
34.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+14
34.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 14 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
36.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Illin 31Similar
Q3 2:21
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
34.1%
Ryan Frain punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 7:2869% → 89%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
31.5%
Tanner McEvoy run for 1 yd to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+11
31.3%
Bart Houston pass complete to Tanner McEvoy for 11 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-8
29.5%
Bart Houston sacked by Rob Bain for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 39Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+6
31.2%
Bart Houston pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 6 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+23
31.8%
Bart Houston pass complete to Alex Erickson for 23 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
27.2%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+10
27.7%
Bart Houston pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 10 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+5
28.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
25.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+2
25.9%
Alec Ingold run for 2 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+6
27.2%
Bart Houston pass complete to Alex Erickson for 6 yds to the Illin 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
24.1%
Alec Ingold run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 9Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
24.1%
Bart Houston pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
11.2%
Bart Houston pass complete to Alex Erickson for 9 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:2913% → 14%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
13.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 15 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
14.4%
Wes Lunt pass intercepted Michael Caputo return for no gain to the Wisc 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 4:0090% → 93%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
10.4%
Alex Erickson run for 4 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+9
10.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 9 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
9.5%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+8
8.3%
Bart Houston pass complete to Alex Erickson for 8 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
8.2%
Alec Ingold run for 3 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
8.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for no gain to the Illin 24Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
7.4%
Bart Houston pass intercepted, touchback. Clayton Fejedelem return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:029% → 6%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
9.0%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 10Similar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+44
8.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 29 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
11.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-2
9.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 48Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 12
OPP 48
0
8.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
6.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:5495% → 96%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
5.0%
Alec Ingold run for 4 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+5
4.8%
Alec Ingold run for 5 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+5
3.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
3.7%
Alec Ingold run for 3 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-4
3.7%
Alec Ingold run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 11
OPP 39
0
3.8%
Dare Ogunbowale run for no gain to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
3.6%
Drew Meyer punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23FUMBLE
5 plays · 50 yds · 0:274% → 5%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+31
4.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 31 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
4.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Dionte TaylorSimilar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
4.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 7 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
4.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+12
4.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 12 yds Dionte Taylor fumbled, recovered by Wisc Chris OrrSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
3.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:05
Alec Ingold run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
-20.1
TD · Q3 7:48
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 36 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)
+18.9
TD · Q4 9:42
Bart Houston pass complete to Alex Erickson for 9 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
-12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com