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PSU

Penn State 10 at Ohio State 38

OSU
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:05 · Cameron Johnston punt for 36 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Pregame prior+18.8Home team on offense+11.5Score differential+2.6Garbage-time factor+5.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:43: J.T. Barrett 5 Yd Run (Jack Willoughby Kick) — OSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:26: Ezekiel Elliott 10 Yd Run (Jack Willoughby Kick) — OSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:17: J.T. Barrett 13 Yd Run (Jack Willoughby Kick) — OSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:59: DaeSean Hamilton 8 Yd pass from Christian Hackenberg (Joey Julius Kick) — PSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 12:54: Jack Willoughby 39 Yd Field Goal — OSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:58OSU 4th & 11 at OSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:32PSU 4th & 5 at OSU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:03OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:35PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:11OSU 4th & 9 at PSU 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    84.3%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:39PSU 4th & 15 at PSU 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:25PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:54PSU 4th & 8 at OSU 31, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    13.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:12PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 49, down 18
    Close callPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:05OSU 4th & 13 at PSU 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%−0.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:02PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 12, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:26OSU 4th & 12 at PSU 43, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:18PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 45, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:54OSU 4th & 7 at PSU 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−3.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:00PSU 4th & 2 at OSU 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−0.5
    85% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−4.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:11PSU 4th & 12 at PSU 23, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:43OSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:26OSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:17OSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:59PSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:25OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:14OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0289% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
88.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 21Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 21
0
88.4%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 11
OWN 21
0
88.3%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Braxton MillerSimilar
Q1 13:58
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
88.3%
Cameron Johnston punt for 56 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2FG
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:2612% → 13%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
88.3%
Akeel Lynch run for 11 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+45
88.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 45 yds to the OhSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
87.9%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the OhSt 20Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+4
87.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Brandon Polk for 4 yds to the OhSt 16Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
87.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
87.4%
Joey Julius 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2988% → 87%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
87.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+2
87.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
87.3%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
87.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+5
86.8%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 5 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q1 9:03
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
86.7%
Cameron Johnston punt for 45 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2813% → 14%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
86.7%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 8Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+4
86.4%
Christian Hackenberg run for 4 yds to the PnSt 12Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 6
OWN 12
0
86.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 6
OWN 12
+16
86.2%
Chris Gulla punt for 39 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 16 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2486% → 85%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-6
86.4%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Braxton Miller for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 16
OPP 41
0
85.7%
Cardale Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 16
OPP 41
+7
85.5%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 7 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
85.3%
Cameron Johnston punt for 32 yds, downed at the PnSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
13 plays · 40 yds · 3:3215% → 16%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
85.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 6Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+5
85.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 11Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+6
85.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 6 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
84.4%
Hackenberg, Christian pass incomplete to Godwin, Chris, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Conley, Gareon) 15 yards to the PENNST32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
84.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+15
84.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Vonn Bell) to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
83.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 9 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
83.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-7
83.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 41 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brian Gaia) to the PnSt 49Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-7
83.4%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Joey Bosa for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 2:39
4TH & 15
OWN 42
0
84.1%
Chris Gulla punt for 28 yds, downed at the OhSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:5684% → 86%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
83.5%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 11 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
83.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 40Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
83.1%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+17
82.6%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Braxton Miller for 17 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
83.5%
Braxton Miller run for 15 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
83.5%
Cardale Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+6
83.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+12
82.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 12 yds to the PnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
83.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the PnSt 5Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+5
85.5%
J.T. Barrett 5 Yd Run (Jack Willoughby Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:1815% → 15%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
84.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+5
84.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 2
OWN 22
-4
84.3%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 18Similar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 6
OWN 18
-5
84.8%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Christian Campbell) to the PnSt 13Similar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 11
OWN 13
0
84.7%
Chris Gulla punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:5985% → 89%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
84.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 7 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+8
84.8%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 8 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
84.7%
Braxton Miller run for 8 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+12
84.7%
Braxton Miller run for 12 yds to the PnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
88.6%
Ezekiel Elliott 10 Yd Run (Jack Willoughby Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:3213% → 12%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
87.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 18 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
86.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 14 yds to the OhSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
86.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by PnSt Brandon PolkSimilar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 14
OPP 37
+2
86.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 2 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+4
86.9%
Christian Hackenberg run for 4 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 8
OPP 31
-3
88.4%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Chris Worley for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:3789% → 94%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
88.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+9
88.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
89.0%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Braxton Miller for 17 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
89.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 15 yds to the PnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
89.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
93.5%
J.T. Barrett 13 Yd Run (Jack Willoughby Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:058% → 8%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+23
92.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 23 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
91.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 5 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
91.2%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
91.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
92.1%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 1:1294% → 94%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
94.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 6Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 6
-2
93.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:017% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+56
92.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 56 yds to the OhSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
91.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 14 yds to the OhSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
85.9%
DaeSean Hamilton 8 Yd pass from Christian Hackenberg (Joey Julius Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:5488% → 87%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
88.5%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 5 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
88.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
88.9%
Cardale Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+20
87.7%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 20 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
88.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-5
88.7%
Braxton Miller run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 42Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 11
OPP 42
-2
88.1%
Cardale Jones sacked by Carl Nassib and Anthony Zettel for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 13
OPP 44
0
87.1%
Cameron Johnston punt for 36 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0312% → 11%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-5
87.6%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Adolphus Washington for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 3Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 15
OWN 3
+4
87.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 7Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 11
OWN 7
+5
88.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 12Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 6
OWN 12
0
88.6%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3689% → 87%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
89.0%
Cardale Jones sacked by Carl Nassib for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+9
88.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 8
OPP 39
-4
88.5%
Cardale Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 43 Cardale Jones fumbled, recovered by OhStSimilar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
87.2%
Cameron Johnston punt for 39 yds, downed at the PnSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:0812% → 12%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+18
87.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Gareon Conley) to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
87.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+6
86.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 6 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
86.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
86.5%
Nick Scott run for 3 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
86.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 45Similar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
88.0%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 5:2489% → 95%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
89.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
88.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
90.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 21 yds to the OHIOST 42 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marcus Baugh) to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
90.3%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-4
91.0%
J.T. Barrett run for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+27
90.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 27 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
90.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+1
91.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 5
OPP 20
-2
90.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 22Similar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
94.9%
Jack Willoughby 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:547% → 8%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+56
92.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 56 yds to the OhSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
90.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the OhSt 19Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+6
90.8%
Brandon Polk run for 6 yds to the OhSt 13Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 2
OPP 13
0
91.9%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the OhSt 13Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 2
OPP 13
-2
92.2%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Tommy Schutt for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:3596% → 100%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+19
95.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 19 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
96.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 13 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
96.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 15 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
96.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+9
96.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+21
96.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 21 yds to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
96.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the PnSt 5Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.6%
Braxton Miller 5 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Jack Willoughby Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22FUMBLE
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:101% → 1%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
99.3%
Hackenberg, Christian pass incomplete to Blacknall, Saeed, PENALTY PENNST holding 7 yards to the PENNST8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 17
OWN 8
+5
99.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 6 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 11
OWN 14
0
99.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+15
99.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Akeel Lynch for no gain to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Camren Williams) to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-7
99.3%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Adolphus Washington for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 22 Christian Hackenberg fumbled, forced by Adolphus Washington, recovered by OhSt Sam Hubbard , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
99.7%
Jalin Marshall run for 15 yds to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
99.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd to the PnSt 6Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Michael Thomas 6 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Jack Willoughby Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
99.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-2
100.0%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+1
100.0%
Chris Gulla punt for 46 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 1 yd to the OhSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 31 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
99.9%
Bri'onte Dunn run for 19 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
100.0%
Bri'onte Dunn run for 3 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+9
100.0%
Bri'onte Dunn run for 9 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:59
DaeSean Hamilton 8 Yd pass from Christian Hackenberg (Joey Julius Kick)
-5.3
TD · Q2 3:17
J.T. Barrett 13 Yd Run (Jack Willoughby Kick)
+4.1
FG · Q4 12:54
Jack Willoughby 39 Yd Field Goal
+4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com