Try the model
IOWA

Iowa 40 at Northwestern 10

NU
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Ryan Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:44 · Dillon Kidd punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Home team on offense−7.5Score differential−2.3Garbage-time factor−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Pregame prior−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:52: Akrum Wadley 35 Yd Run (Marshall Koehn PAT failed) — IOWA win probability +4.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:15: Akrum Wadley 4 Yd Run (Marshall Koehn Kick) — IOWA win probability +10.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:18: Christian Jones 4 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Jack Mitchell Kick) — NU win probability +6.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:42: Akrum Wadley 2 Yd Run (Marshall Koehn Kick) — IOWA win probability +15.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:26: Akrum Wadley 4 Yd Run (Marshall Koehn Kick) — IOWA win probability +11.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 13:09IOWA 4th & 10 at NU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    54.6%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:59IOWA 4th & 7 at NU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:24NU 4th & 4 at NU 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:37IOWA 4th & 3 at NU 49, up 3
    Close callPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:18NU 4th & 2 at NU 17, down 3
    Close callPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:26NU 4th & 10 at NU 25, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:11IOWA 4th & 27 at IOWA 40, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:40NU 4th & 10 at NU 13, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:40NU 4th & 3 at IOWA 3, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−6.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:44IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 43, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:37NU 4th & 18 at NU 17, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−4.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:06NU 4th & 7 at IOWA 44, down 6
    Close callPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−1.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:33NU 4th & 3 at NU 38, down 20
    Close callPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:40IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 25, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:49IOWA 4th & 2 at NU 4, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    92.5%−4.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:37NU 4th & 11 at NU 24, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:04NU 4th & 10 at NU 49, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:01IOWA 4th & 4 at NU 30, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 14:52IOWA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:15IOWA Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:18NU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:42IOWA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:26IOWA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:55IOWA Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 1:4154% → 54%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
45.9%
Jordan Canzeri run for 1 yd to the Iowa 26Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
46.0%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jerminic SmithSimilar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
46.0%
Beathard, C.J. pass incomplete to VandeBerg, Matt, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN offside (McShepard, Marcus) 5 yards to the IOWA31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+32
46.1%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 17 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Personal Foul (Traveon Henry) to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
46.0%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Riley McCarron, broken up by Anthony WalkerSimilar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
46.0%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jacob HillyerSimilar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
46.1%
Beathard, C.J. pass complete to Smith, Tevaun for 24 yards to the NORTHWSTRN13, PENALTY IOWA pass interference (Smith, Tevaun) off-setting, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN Roughing Passer (Washington, Xavier) off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
46.1%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
46.3%
Dillon Kidd punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4146% → 46%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
46.4%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
46.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for no gain to the Nwest 15Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+4
46.4%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Desmond King return for 4 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5554% → 54%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
46.1%
Jordan Canzeri run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 24Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+2
46.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 2 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+4
46.4%
C.J. Beathard run for 4 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+36
46.5%
Marshall Koehn 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:2247% → 46%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
46.6%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+4
46.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 4 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+5
46.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 5 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
46.7%
Warren Long run for 3 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
46.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jelani Roberts for 3 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
46.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Mike McHugh, broken up by Joshua JacksonSimilar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
46.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:3453% → 53%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
46.8%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for 19 yds to the Iowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
46.3%
Akrum Wadley run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 4
50
+2
46.1%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 2
OPP 48
-1
46.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
46.9%
Dillon Kidd punt for 40 yds, downed at the Nwest 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1647% → 46%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
46.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon Vault, broken up by Cole FisherSimilar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+3
46.5%
Solomon Vault run for 3 yds to the Nwest 12Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+5
46.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
45.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:1853% → 59%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
47.0%
Jordan Canzeri run for 4 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
46.3%
C.J. Beathard run for no gain to the Iowa 34Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+9
46.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 9 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
45.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+18
45.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 18 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
45.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+35
41.0%
Akrum Wadley 35 Yd Run (Marshall Koehn PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2042% → 41%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
41.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q2 14:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
41.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett Dickerson, broken up by Desmond KingSimilar
Q2 14:26
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
40.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 18 yds, downed at the Nwest 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 2:0459% → 58%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
41.1%
C.J. Beathard sacked by James Prather for a loss of 10 yards to the NORTHWSTRN 47 IOWA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (C.J. Beathard) to the Iowa 47Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 20
OWN 47
+13
41.7%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Derrick Mitchell Jr. for 13 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-10
40.8%
Beathard, C.J. pass complete to Smith, Tevaun for 30 yards to the NORTHWSTRN10, PENALTY IOWA holding (Walsh, Jordan) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 17
50
-10
41.7%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Max Chapman for a loss of 10 yards to the Iowa 40Similar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 27
OWN 40
+5
42.3%
Dillon Kidd punt for 52 yds , Miles Shuler returns for 5 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2540% → 39%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
40.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Miles ShulerSimilar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
40.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian Jones, broken up by Miles TaylorSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
39.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 10
OWN 13
0
39.1%
Hunter Niswander punt for 28 yds, downed at the Nwest 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 1:1860% → 71%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
40.1%
Akrum Wadley run for 5 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+14
39.8%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 14 yds to the Nwest 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
39.5%
Akrum Wadley run for 18 yds to the Nwest 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
28.8%
Akrum Wadley 4 Yd Run (Marshall Koehn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12TD
15 plays · 76 yds · 3:4733% → 39%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
33.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+14
33.3%
Justin Jackson run for 14 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
34.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
33.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Mike McHughSimilar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+13
33.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 13 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
34.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Miles Shuler for 11 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
34.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 5 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-15
34.9%
Jackson, Justin rush for 2 yards to the IOWA31, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN personal foul (Hance, Blake) 15 yards to the IOWA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+5
33.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Stephen Buckley for 5 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+34
31.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Mike McHugh for 34 yds to the Iowa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
32.8%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 5Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
32.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 4Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
39.0%
Christian Jones 4 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Jack Mitchell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+20
36.8%
C.J. Beathard pass intercepted Traveon Henry return for 20 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:0040% → 41%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-12
39.9%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Josey Jewell and Nate Meier for a loss of 12 yards to the Iowa 37Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 22
OPP 37
+21
38.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Miles Shuler for 6 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Cole Fisher) to the Iowa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
39.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 5 yds to the Iowa 11Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+6
39.7%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Iowa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
39.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 3Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
39.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 1Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
38.1%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 3Similar
Q2 2:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
40.8%
Jack Mitchell 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4763% → 63%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
36.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
36.5%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Derrick Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
36.8%
Dillon Kidd punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:5039% → 39%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
39.0%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Jaleel Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the Nwest 15Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+3
38.3%
Solomon Vault run for 3 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-1
37.8%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 17Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
38.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 36 yds, downed at the Iowa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 37 yds · 0:3163% → 66%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
36.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 8 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+19
35.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 19 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
34.3%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Derrick Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+7
34.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Derrick Mitchell Jr. for 7 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+3
34.7%
C.J. Beathard run for 3 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+34
33.6%
Marshall Koehn 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:4442% → 41%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
41.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 6 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
43.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 2 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+9
42.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Mike McHugh for 9 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
44.0%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
43.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Miles ShulerSimilar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
43.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
41.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 6:1662% → 83%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
37.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 24 yds to the Iowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
34.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 7 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
34.4%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+8
34.5%
Akrum Wadley run for 8 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
34.2%
Derrick Mitchell Jr. run for 13 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
33.4%
Derrick Mitchell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+4
33.3%
Akrum Wadley run for 4 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+5
32.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 5 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
31.8%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 16Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+8
31.8%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jacob Hillyer for 8 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+6
32.1%
C.J. Beathard run for 6 yds to the Nwest 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.9%
Akrum Wadley 2 Yd Run (Marshall Koehn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
24.4%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 21 Justin Jackson fumbled, recovered by Iowa Jaleel JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 1:0183% → 94%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
16.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 7 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+10
16.7%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 10 yds to the Nwest 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
5.7%
Akrum Wadley 4 Yd Run (Marshall Koehn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:3710% → 7%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
9.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 9 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
9.8%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
7.4%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
7.0%
Clayton Thorson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
7.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
7.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
6.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 50 yds, downed at the Iowa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:4195% → 96%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
4.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 6 yds to the Iowa 18Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+2
4.6%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 20Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+3
3.3%
C.J. Beathard run for 3 yds to the Iowa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
3.7%
Derrick Mitchell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
3.5%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
3.5%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Derrick Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 8
OWN 25
-4
3.6%
Dillon Kidd punt for 47 yds , Miles Shuler returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:175% → 5%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
5.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
5.4%
Clayton Thorson run for no gain to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+15
4.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 15 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
5.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jelani Roberts for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
50
-10
5.0%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Josey Jewell for a loss of 10 yards to the Nwest 40 Clayton Thorson fumbled, forced by Josey Jewell, recovered by Iowa Parker Hesse , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 3:1997% → 99%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
2.8%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 2 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+3
2.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+23
2.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Derrick Mitchell Jr. for 23 yds to the Nwest 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
2.4%
Akrum Wadley run for 6 yds to the Nwest 6Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+2
2.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Nwest 4Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 2
OPP 4
0
2.1%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Macon PlewaSimilar
Q4 10:49
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+22
1.5%
Marshall Koehn 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:542% → 2%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
2.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Kidd for 6 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-10
2.5%
Thorson, Clayton rush for 5 yards to the NORTHWSTRN37, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN holding (Olson, Eric) 10 yards to the NORTHWSTRN22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
2.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
2.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
2.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 27TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 1:3599% → 100%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-7
1.3%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Iowa 32 IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cole Croston) to the Iowa 22Similar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 17
OWN 22
+41
1.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 41 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+24
1.1%
Derrick Mitchell Jr. run for 24 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
0.2%
Derrick Mitchell Jr. 13 Yd Run (Marshall Koehn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28PUNT
12 plays · 24 yds · 1:470% → 0%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Warren LongSimilar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
0.2%
Oliver, Zack pass incomplete to Vitale, Dan, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN holding (Olson, Eric) 10 yards to the NORTHWSTRN15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+8
0.2%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Miles Shuler for 8 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+12
0.2%
Oliver, Zack pass incomplete to Shuler, Miles, PENALTY IOWA pass interference (Fleming, Maurice) 12 yards to the NORTHWSTRN35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHWSTRN.Similar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
0.2%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Solomon Vault for 8 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
0.2%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Mike McHughSimilar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
0.2%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 6 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
0.2%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Stephen BuckleySimilar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
0.2%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
0.2%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Stephen BuckleySimilar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
0.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 29END OF GAME
11 plays · 65 yds · 5:44100% → 100%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.2%
Derrick Mitchell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Iowa 26Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
0.2%
Derrick Mitchell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+22
0.2%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Drake Kulick for 22 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
0.1%
Derrick Mitchell Jr. run for 10 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
0.1%
Derrick Mitchell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+4
0.1%
Derrick Mitchell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
0.1%
Tyler Wiegers pass incomplete to Adrian FalconerSimilar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+12
0.1%
Akrum Wadley run for 12 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
0.1%
Drake Kulick run for 3 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+4
0.1%
Drake Kulick run for 4 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+1
0.1%
Drake Kulick run for 1 yd to the Nwest 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:42
Akrum Wadley 2 Yd Run (Marshall Koehn Kick)
-15.2
TD · Q3 5:26
Akrum Wadley 4 Yd Run (Marshall Koehn Kick)
-11
TD · Q2 10:15
Akrum Wadley 4 Yd Run (Marshall Koehn Kick)
-10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com