Try the model
NEB

Nebraska 48 at Minnesota 25

MINN
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Huntington Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:15 · Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 7 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Home team on offense−29.8Score differential−14.4Garbage-time factor−12.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.6Pregame prior−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:02: KJ Maye run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +9.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 1:55: Terrell Newby run for 9 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +9.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:16: Cethan Carter 10 Yd pass from Tommy Armstrong Jr. (Drew Brown Kick) — NEB win probability +10.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:21: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 14 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +5.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:52: Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mitch Leidner pass to KJ Maye for Two-Point Conversion) — MINN win probability +10.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 6:43MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 14, tied
    Close callPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:23NEB 4th & 3 at MINN 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.0%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:18MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 45, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:46NEB 4th & 23 at MINN 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:25MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:11NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:03MINN 4th & 10 at NEB 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:27MINN 4th & 22 at MINN 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−3.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:50NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 31, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:15MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 48, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.3%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:49MINN 4th & 15 at NEB 21, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:06NEB 4th & 3 at MINN 24, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−3.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:37MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 25, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:14MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:52NEB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:50NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:02MINN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:55NEB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:16NEB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:21NEB Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:52MINN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:10NEB Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4144% → 48%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.0%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
44.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
44.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 8 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
44.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 1 yd to the Minn 39Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+4
44.8%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+24
45.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 24 yds to the Neb 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
45.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 7 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+2
45.9%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Neb 24Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+24
47.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 24 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:0853% → 55%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
47.1%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Neb 20Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+11
47.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 11 yds to the Neb 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
45.4%
Terrell Newby run for 69 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1746% → 45%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
45.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 8 yds to the Minn 14Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+1
45.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 15Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 1
OWN 15
-1
45.4%
Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 14Similar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 2
OWN 14
+42
45.4%
Peter Mortell punt for 49 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 42 yds to the Minn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0255% → 54%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
44.8%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+2
44.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 2 yds to the Minn 14Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 3
OPP 14
0
45.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Terrell NewbySimilar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+31
45.7%
Drew Brown 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:3246% → 47%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
46.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 6 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
46.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Minn 29 Shannon Brooks fumbled, forced by Nate Gerry, recovered by Neb Jack GangwishSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:4055% → 59%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
44.9%
Terrell Newby run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 32Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 13
OPP 32
0
45.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+32
41.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 32 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:2243% → 42%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
42.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 11 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
42.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 6 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
43.6%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
42.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 1 yd to the Minn 45Similar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
42.1%
Peter Mortell punt for 46 yds, downed at the Neb 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8FG
17 plays · 63 yds · 6:2258% → 61%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
41.8%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Neb 15Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 4
OWN 15
0
41.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+5
41.8%
Andy Janovich run for 5 yds to the Neb 20 Andy Janovich fumbled, forced by Jonathan Celestin, recovered by Neb Andy Janovich for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
41.3%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
40.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 4 yds to the Neb 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
40.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 14 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
39.7%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+18
39.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 18 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
39.3%
Andy Janovich run for 10 yds to the Minn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
38.8%
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
38.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+7
39.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 7 yds to the Minn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
37.6%
Alonzo Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 16Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 11
OPP 16
0
37.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 11
OPP 16
-12
37.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Theiren Cockran for a loss of 12 yards to the Minn 28Similar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 23
OPP 28
+45
38.8%
Drew Brown 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3736% → 48%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad StillSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.1%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
35.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 10 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
37.0%
KJ Maye run for 14 yds to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+31
37.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 31 yds to the Neb 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
38.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Miles Thomas for 8 yds to the Neb 9Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+2
37.9%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Neb 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
47.8%
KJ Maye run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5557% → 70%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
43.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 34 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
41.0%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the Minn 40Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+11
41.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 11 yds to the Minn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
39.6%
Devine Ozigbo run for 3 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+5
39.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+7
40.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 7 yds to the Minn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
39.1%
Andy Janovich run for 5 yds to the Minn 9Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
30.1%
Terrell Newby run for 9 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 1:2031% → 30%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
31.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 6 yds to the Minn 19Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+7
31.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 7 yds to the Minn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
31.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 24Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 12
OWN 24
-5
31.2%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 19Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 17
OWN 19
+5
30.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 5 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+4
29.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 4 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
29.8%
Peter Mortell punt for 66 yds, downed at the Neb 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
32.6%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the Neb 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3468% → 68%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.3%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
32.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 6 yds to the Neb 33Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
31.7%
Andy Janovich run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 32Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+14
32.2%
Sam Foltz punt for 45 yds , KiAnte Hardin returns for 14 yds to the Minn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4231% → 29%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
30.8%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
31.1%
Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd to the Minn 40Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+13
29.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 13 yds to the Neb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
31.9%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Greg McMullen for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 13
50
+3
30.7%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
30.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
28.5%
Peter Mortell punt for 46 yds, downed at the Neb 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15TD
11 plays · 99 yds · 5:2470% → 89%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
30.3%
Andy Janovich run for 1 yd to the Neb 2Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+7
30.3%
Imani Cross run for 7 yds to the Neb 9Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+5
31.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 5 yds to the Neb 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+20
29.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 20 yds to the Neb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
28.4%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Neb 24Similar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+13
28.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 13 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+18
26.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 18 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+25
24.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 25 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
23.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 11 yds to the Minn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
22.1%
Terrell Newby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 10Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
11.2%
Cethan Carter 10 Yd pass from Tommy Armstrong Jr. (Drew Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 1:4515% → 14%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
14.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Miles ThomasSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
14.4%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-11
14.3%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Vincent Valentine for a loss of 11 yards to the Minn 23Similar
Q3 2:43
4TH & 17
OWN 23
-5
13.7%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Minn 18Similar
Q3 2:27
4TH & 22
OWN 18
+7
13.6%
Peter Mortell punt for 48 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 7 yds to the Neb 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:5091% → 97%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
9.3%
Alonzo Moore run for 8 yds to the Neb 49Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+15
8.9%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
9.0%
Andy Janovich run for 6 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+11
8.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 11 yds to the Minn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
7.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd to the Minn 18Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+4
7.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds to the Minn 14Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+14
2.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 14 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+15
2.8%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:284% → 14%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
3.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Nate WozniakSimilar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
3.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 13 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
3.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad StillSimilar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+25
3.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 25 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
3.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 18 yds to the Neb 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
3.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 18 yds to the Neb 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mitch Leidner pass to KJ Maye for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:5593% → 92%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
7.5%
Terrell Newby run for 16 yds to the Neb 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
7.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
7.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Terrell NewbySimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
7.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
7.6%
Sam Foltz punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 3:5610% → 9%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
9.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 14 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
9.4%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+10
8.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 1
50
-2
9.1%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 48Similar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+7
7.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 7 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+29
7.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 29 yds to the Neb 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
7.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brandon LingenSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
7.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 10
OPP 16
-10
7.0%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Neb 26Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 20
OPP 26
+5
6.4%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the Neb 21Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 15
OPP 21
+39
9.0%
Ryan Santoso 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:3994% → 99%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
5.6%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
5.5%
Imani Cross run for 2 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+27
3.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 27 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
3.0%
Andy Janovich run for 1 yd to the Minn 30Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+4
2.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+2
2.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+41
1.4%
Drew Brown 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22INT TD
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:403% → 1%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
2.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 7 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+5
2.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 5 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
2.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brandon LingenSimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
2.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Eric CarterSimilar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+41
0.6%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted for a TD Joshua Kalu return for 41 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23INT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:231% → 0%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
0.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 25Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad StillSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad StillSimilar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+2
0.3%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Nate Gerry return for 2 yds to the Minn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 46Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 13
OPP 46
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 48Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 15
OPP 48
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:16
Cethan Carter 10 Yd pass from Tommy Armstrong Jr. (Drew Brown Kick)
-10.9
TD · Q4 11:52
Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mitch Leidner pass to KJ Maye for Two-Point Conversion)
+10.8
TD · Q2 6:02
KJ Maye run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
+9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com