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MSU

Michigan State 27 at Michigan 23

MICH
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:05 · Blake O'Neill punt for 41 yds , R.J. Shelton returns for 3 yds to the MchSt 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Pregame prior+8.4Home team on offense+3.4Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score differential+0.4Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:06: LJ Scott run for 11 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +10.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:17: Sione Houma run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +10.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:07: Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 30 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +16.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 8:56: LJ Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +31.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q4 0:00: Blake O'Neill run for a loss of 15 yards Blake O'Neill fumbled, recovered by MchSt Jalen Watts-Jackson , return for 38 yds — MSU win probability +79.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 11MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 9
  1. Q1 12:08MSU 4th & 13 at MSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:04MICH 4th & 19 at MICH 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:59MSU 4th & 8 at MICH 28, tied
    Close callWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    33.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:41MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:44MICH 4th & 14 at MICH 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:34MICH 4th & 5 at MSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:44MSU 4th & 18 at MSU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−2.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:12MICH 4th & 7 at MSU 38, up 3
    Close callPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    67.6%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:05MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 33, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:01MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 31, down 3
    Numbers favored punt by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.3%−2.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:06MICH 4th & 3 at MSU 3, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.9%−2.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−13.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:42MSU 4th & 10 at MICH 32, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.4%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    26.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:05MICH 4th & 9 at MSU 44, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    78.4%−1.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:51MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 11, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:25MICH 4th & 2 at MSU 20, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.9%−1.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−9.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:15MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−5.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:41MSU 4th & 10 at MICH 40, down 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    33.8%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%−1.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:54MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 24, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−3.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:47MSU 4th & 19 at MICH 45, down 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.7 ptsWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.5%−5.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    25.2%
    25% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−5.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:00MICH 4th & 2 at MSU 47, up 2
    Close callWent for it · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.5%−0.6
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 13:13MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:06MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:17MICH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:07MSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:56MSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:4632% → 32%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
68.0%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 23Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+27
68.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
50
+1
67.7%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-4
67.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 13
OWN 47
0
67.7%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
67.8%
Tyler O'Connor punt for 26 yds, downed at the Mich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 2:0468% → 67%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
67.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Jake Butt) to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 15
OWN 22
0
67.7%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 15
OWN 22
0
67.6%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 15
OWN 22
-4
67.2%
Jake Rudock sacked by Riley Bullough and Demetrius Cooper for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 18Similar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 19
OWN 18
0
67.1%
Blake O'Neill punt for 80 yds, downed at the MchSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3DOWNS
19 plays · 70 yds · 8:0033% → 35%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+14
67.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 14 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
67.3%
R.J. Shelton run for 3 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+2
67.3%
Delton Williams run for 2 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+5
67.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
66.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
66.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+13
67.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 13 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
66.3%
Delton Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+19
66.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 19 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
65.8%
Delton Williams run for 4 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-15
65.5%
Williams, Delton rush for no gain to the MICHIGAN39, PENALTY MICHIGANST personal foul (McGowan, Benny) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 21
OWN 46
+3
66.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 3 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 18
OWN 49
+10
66.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jabrill Peppers) to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
65.0%
Aaron Burbridge run for 9 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+2
64.6%
Damion Terry run for 2 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
64.5%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
63.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Paul Lang, broken up by Chris WormleySimilar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
64.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron Burbridge, broken up by Jourdan LewisSimilar
Q1 1:59
4TH & 8
OPP 28
0
65.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:3967% → 72%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+27
66.5%
Sione Houma run for 27 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
67.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 46Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+2
67.3%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+21
66.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to A.J. Williams for 21 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
67.7%
Ty Isaac run for 4 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+11
67.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 11 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
67.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the MchSt 2Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.2%
Sione Houma run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1330% → 29%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
70.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 7 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+1
69.2%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the MchSt 38Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-4
69.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 10:41
4TH & 6
OWN 34
-2
71.3%
Tyler O'Connor punt for 46 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4871% → 70%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
71.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-4
71.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 19Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 9
OWN 19
-5
70.5%
Jake Rudock sacked by Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 14Similar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 14
OWN 14
0
70.0%
Blake O'Neill punt for 32 yds, downed at the Mich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:3031% → 42%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
69.2%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+21
69.7%
Connor Cook run for 6 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Joe Bolden) to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
68.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 13 yds to the Mich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
58.1%
LJ Scott run for 11 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:1767% → 68%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
67.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 23 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
67.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
67.4%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Karan HigdonSimilar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
66.5%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jake Butt, broken up by Jon ReschkeSimilar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
68.2%
Kenny Allen 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:3734% → 33%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
65.7%
Delton Williams run for 3 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+9
65.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 9 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
64.2%
Delton Williams run for 2 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
64.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Delton WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-10
64.9%
Connor Cook sacked by Chris Wormley for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 18
OWN 34
+34
67.5%
Tyler O'Connor punt for 41 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 34 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2770% → 68%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
70.0%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
69.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Karan Higdon for 3 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
69.7%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
68.1%
Blake O'Neill punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:0233% → 33%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
67.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 4
OWN 14
-7
66.8%
Cook, Connor pass complete to Price, Josiah for 13 yards to the MICHIGANST27, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Price, Josiah) 7 yards to the MICHIGANST7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+5
67.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4068% → 67%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
68.2%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 25Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+8
68.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 8 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
68.2%
Joe Kerridge run for no gain to the Mich 33Similar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+3
66.9%
Blake O'Neill punt for 41 yds , R.J. Shelton returns for 3 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5734% → 32%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
66.2%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
65.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
67.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron Burbridge, broken up by Jourdan LewisSimilar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+7
68.2%
Tyler O'Connor run for 7 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 2:3871% → 81%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
70.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 8 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+4
71.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
71.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Jehu Chesson) to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+28
70.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jabrill Peppers for 28 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.2%
Sione Houma run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5820% → 39%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
79.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 13 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
79.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 27 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
77.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+30
60.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 30 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:4568% → 77%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
68.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to A.J. Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 34Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+2
68.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+32
67.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 32 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
72.5%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the MchSt 32Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
72.1%
Rudock, Jake pass incomplete to Chesson, Jehu, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Reschke, Jon) 12 yards to the MICHIGANST19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
72.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 9 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+2
72.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
72.4%
Rudock, Jake pass complete to Darboh, Amara for 4 yards to the MICHIGANST4, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Braden, Ben) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
0
72.3%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q3 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
0
71.6%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to De'Veon Smith, broken up by Joel HeathSimilar
Q3 2:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+15
69.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 15 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q3 2:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
77.1%
Kenny Allen 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:1428% → 28%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.7%
Delton Williams run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
71.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 18 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
68.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 5 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
67.7%
Delton Williams run for 3 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+14
68.1%
Delton Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 47 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Willie Henry) to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
65.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron Burbridge, broken up by Jourdan LewisSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
65.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Jamal Lyles, broken up by Willie HenrySimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
68.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 10
OPP 32
0
72.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:3079% → 80%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
79.1%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu Chesson, broken up by Arjen ColquhounSimilar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
78.8%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 31Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+24
77.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 24 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
81.7%
Joe Kerridge run for 2 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-1
83.1%
Jake Rudock sacked by Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
82.0%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 9
OPP 44
+40
79.9%
Blake O'Neill punt for 37 yds, downed at the MchSt 7 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Malik McDowell) to the MchSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0725% → 23%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
75.3%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+7
75.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 7 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 3
OWN 11
0
76.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q4 10:51
4TH & 3
OWN 11
+16
77.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 33 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 16 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1386% → 86%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
86.3%
Jehu Chesson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
86.4%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Sione Houma, broken up by Lawrence ThomasSimilar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+7
85.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jabrill Peppers for 7 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+38
85.8%
Kenny Allen 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2914% → 46%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+74
86.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Trevon Pendleton for 74 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.5%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0567% → 62%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
66.5%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 21Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+4
65.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 4 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
64.0%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+1
62.2%
Blake O'Neill punt for 44 yds , R.J. Shelton returns for 1 yd to the MchSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:2839% → 39%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+28
61.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 28 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
55.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Paul Lang, broken up by Delano HillSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
55.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Delton Williams, broken up by Jarrod WilsonSimilar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
58.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
61.5%
Tyler O'Connor punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3966% → 67%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
65.9%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 21Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
70.1%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+6
68.4%
Rudock, Jake pass incomplete to Darboh, Amara (Miller, Grayson), PENALTY MICHIGANST offside (McDowell, Malik) 6 yards to the MICHIGAN27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-3
69.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Rudock for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 24Similar
Q4 4:54
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
66.9%
Blake O'Neill punt for 48 yds, fair catch by R.J. Shelton at the MchSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25DOWNS
12 plays · 27 yds · 3:0738% → 30%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
62.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Willie Henry) to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 5
OWN 33
-10
59.5%
Connor Cook sacked by Willie Henry for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 23Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+25
66.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 25 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
59.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 8
50
+7
58.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 7 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+7
57.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 7 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-9
58.3%
Connor Cook sacked by Willie Henry for a loss of 9 yards to the Mich 45Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 19
OPP 45
0
62.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 19
OPP 45
0
65.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron Burbridge, broken up by Jourdan LewisSimilar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 19
OPP 45
0
70.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr., broken up by Dymonte ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26END OF GAME TD
7 plays · -7 yds · 1:4285% → 15%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
85.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 5
50
+2
86.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+1
90.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+38
14.6%
Blake O'Neill run for a loss of 15 yards Blake O'Neill fumbled, recovered by MchSt Jalen Watts-Jackson , return for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q4 0:00
Blake O'Neill run for a loss of 15 yards Blake O'Neill fumbled, recovered by MchSt Jalen Watts-Jackson , return for 38 yds
-79.1
TD · Q4 8:56
LJ Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
-31.6
TD · Q3 7:07
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 30 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
-16.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com