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MSU

Michigan State 31 at Rutgers 24

RUTG
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · High Point Solutions Stadium
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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:01: LJ Scott 1 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick) — MSU win probability +15.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:46: DeAnthony Arnett 25 Yd pass from Connor Cook (Michael Geiger Kick) — MSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:49: Leonte Carroo 28 Yd pass from Chris Laviano (Kyle Federico Kick) — RUTG win probability +19.6 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. FG · Q4 4:21: Kyle Federico 22 Yd Field Goal — RUTG win probability +17.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:43: LJ Scott 3 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick) — MSU win probability +33.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 9 of 9MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 13:11RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:07MSU 4th & 13 at RUTG 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:06RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:19MSU 4th & 4 at RUTG 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    80.5%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:05RUTG 4th & 20 at RUTG 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:56MSU 4th & 10 at RUTG 34, tied
    Close callWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:53MSU 4th & 16 at MSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:14MSU 4th & 10 at RUTG 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:06RUTG 4th & 11 at RUTG 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:41RUTG 4th & 24 at RUTG 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−4.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:17RUTG 4th & 1 at MSU 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.2%−3.0
    58% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−9.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:22MSU 4th & 6 at RUTG 44, up 3
    Close callPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    66.5%−3.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:15RUTG 4th & 6 at MSU 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    31.9%−2.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:21RUTG 4th & 4 at MSU 4, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.5%
    93% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−22.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:03RUTG 4th & 20 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 1:46MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56RUTG Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:11RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:01MSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:46MSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:49RUTG Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:43MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RUTGDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3813% → 14%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
13.0%
Chris Laviano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-1
13.1%
Janarion Grant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 11
OWN 33
-5
13.2%
Laviano, Chris pass complete to Goodwin, Justin for 16 yards to the RUTGERS49, PENALTY RUTGERS illegal shift 5 yards to the RUTGERS28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 16
OWN 28
+10
13.5%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Justin Goodwin for 10 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q1 13:11
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
13.7%
Joey Roth punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2MISSED FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:5986% → 85%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
13.7%
Madre London run for 4 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+23
14.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 23 yds to the Rutgr 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
14.1%
Madre London run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+10
14.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 10 yds to the Rutgr 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
14.5%
Madre London run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 13
OPP 18
0
14.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 13
OPP 18
0
15.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron Burbridge, broken up by Isaiah WhartonSimilar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 13
OPP 18
+35
15.3%
Michael Geiger 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Djwany MeraSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5415% → 16%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
15.3%
Josh Hicks run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-1
15.6%
Josh Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 22Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+3
15.7%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Janarion Grant for 3 yds to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
15.9%
Joey Roth punt for 46 yds, fair catch by R.J. Shelton at the MchSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:4384% → 83%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
16.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
16.2%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+17
16.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 17 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
16.4%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
16.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 6 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
17.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
17.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:0918% → 18%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
17.8%
Robert Martin run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
18.2%
Chris Laviano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-12
18.1%
Chris Laviano sacked by Shilique Calhoun and Chris Frey for a loss of 12 yards to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
17.8%
Joey Roth punt for 32 yds, fair catch by R.J. Shelton at the MchSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:1382% → 85%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
17.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+23
18.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 23 yds to the Rutgr 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
17.6%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
17.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
18.2%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+25
18.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 25 yds to the Rutgr 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
17.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 8Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
15.5%
Macgarrett Kings Jr. 8 Yd pass from Connor Cook (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:3117% → 22%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+72
16.5%
Paul James run for 72 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
18.0%
Paul James run for 2 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
18.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 5 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Chris LavianoSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
22.0%
Leonte Carroo 5 Yd pass from Chris Laviano (Kyle Federico Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5980% → 78%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
20.1%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-6
20.3%
Connor Cook sacked by Steve Longa for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
21.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron Burbridge, broken up by Blessuan AustinSimilar
Q2 13:53
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
21.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 24 yds, downed at the Rutgr 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:3423% → 28%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
22.8%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Andre Patton for 14 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
27.9%
Leonte Carroo 39 Yd pass from Chris Laviano (Kyle Federico Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:4374% → 75%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+30
26.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 30 yds to the Rutgr 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
25.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Gerald HolmesSimilar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
26.0%
R.J. Shelton run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+10
26.3%
Connor Cook run for 10 yds to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+19
26.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 19 yds to the Rutgr 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
26.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 7Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 4
OPP 7
-6
27.2%
R.J. Shelton run for a loss of 6 yards to the Rutgr 13Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
28.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Paul Lang, broken up by Quanzell LambertSimilar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
25.2%
Michael Geiger 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:5727% → 29%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
26.9%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 8 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+12
27.8%
Robert Martin run for 12 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
28.8%
Janarion Grant run for 9 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 1
OPP 46
-4
30.2%
Robert Martin run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 5
50
-6
30.3%
Chris Laviano sacked by Lawrence Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
28.7%
Joey Roth punt for 42 yds, downed at the MchSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12INT
12 plays · 78 yds · 5:4772% → 71%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
28.3%
Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 13Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 11
OWN 13
0
28.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+20
29.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 20 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
28.4%
Aaron Burbridge run for 6 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-1
27.7%
Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 38Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+8
29.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 8 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
28.4%
Madre London run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+11
30.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 11 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+6
28.5%
Madre London run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
29.5%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+28
29.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 28 yds to the Rutgr 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
28.7%
Connor Cook pass intercepted, touchback. Kiy Hester return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:4336% → 35%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
35.8%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Janarion Grant for 4 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
35.0%
Justin Goodwin run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 5:4664% → 76%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
35.8%
Madre London run for no gain to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+25
36.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 25 yds to the Rutgr 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
33.9%
Madre London run for no gain to the Rutgr 48Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
35.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 8 yds to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+8
35.0%
Madre London run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
34.4%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+14
36.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Paul Lang for 14 yds to the Rutgr 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
36.7%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 14Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+2
37.4%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 12Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+11
39.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 11 yds to the Rutgr 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.7%
LJ Scott 1 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 1:1029% → 27%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
29.4%
James, Paul rush for 7 yards to the RUTGERS39, PENALTY RUTGERS illegal formation 5 yards to the RUTGERS27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 15
OWN 27
-9
29.2%
Chris Laviano run for a loss of 9 yards to the Rutgr 18 Chris Laviano fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Chris LavianoSimilar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 24
OWN 18
0
29.1%
Chris Laviano pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 24
OWN 18
0
27.9%
Chris Laviano pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 24
OWN 18
0
27.4%
Joey Roth punt for 33 yds, fair catch by R.J. Shelton at the MchSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:4974% → 84%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
25.6%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+20
25.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Paul Lang for 20 yds to the Rutgr 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
24.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 2 yds to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
24.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to LJ ScottSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+25
15.8%
DeAnthony Arnett 25 Yd pass from Connor Cook (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 4:3916% → 38%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
16.3%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Nick Arcidiacono for 2 yds to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+10
16.4%
Josh Hicks run for 10 yds to the Rutgr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
16.6%
Josh Hicks run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+4
17.8%
Josh Hicks run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
17.6%
Josh Hicks run for no gain to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+17
17.4%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 17 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
18.4%
Robert Martin run for 8 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 2
OPP 30
-10
19.7%
Hicks, Josh rush for 1 yard to the MICHIGANST29, PENALTY RUTGERS holding (Arcidiacono, Nick) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+11
18.1%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 11 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
18.3%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+1
17.0%
Josh Hicks run for 1 yd to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
38.4%
Leonte Carroo 28 Yd pass from Chris Laviano (Kyle Federico Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:1371% → 72%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
28.6%
Delton Williams run for 6 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+16
27.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to DeAnthony Arnett for 16 yds to the Rutgr 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
26.1%
Delton Williams run for no gain to the Rutgr 48Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
26.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 6 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-5
27.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Donavon Clark) to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+3
27.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 3 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
27.8%
Tyler O'Connor punt for 39 yds, downed at the Rutgr 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19FG
18 plays · 91 yds · 7:5630% → 55%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
30.0%
Robert Martin run for no gain to the Rutgr 5Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+5
29.9%
Robert Martin run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 10Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+5
29.1%
Chris Laviano run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
29.9%
Robert Martin run for 11 yds to the Rutgr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
30.9%
Robert Martin run for no gain to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+26
30.7%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 26 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
37.0%
Chris Laviano run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+5
37.1%
Robert Martin run for 5 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-2
37.0%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Justin Goodwin for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 6
OPP 44
+18
33.8%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Justin Goodwin for 18 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
39.9%
Robert Martin run for 2 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+15
40.1%
Robert Martin run for 15 yds to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
40.2%
Robert Martin run for 5 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
39.5%
Robert Martin run for no gain to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
37.2%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Leonte Carroo, broken up by Arjen ColquhounSimilar
Q4 4:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
54.5%
Kyle Federico 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:2555% → 96%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
44.7%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
45.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+29
47.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 29 yds to the Rutgr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
38.8%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+2
38.5%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+10
37.5%
Aaron Burbridge run for 10 yds to the Rutgr 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
35.8%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the Rutgr 19Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+16
38.0%
LJ Scott run for 16 yds to the Rutgr 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
4.5%
LJ Scott 3 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:359% → 9%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
8.8%
Chris Laviano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
8.7%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Charles ScarffSimilar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+25
8.1%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Andre Patton for 25 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
11.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
11.8%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Charles Scarff, broken up by Darien HarrisSimilar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-10
10.8%
Chris Laviano sacked by Malik McDowell for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 20
50
0
8.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
50
-1
4.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:43
LJ Scott 3 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)
-33.5
TD · Q3 0:49
Leonte Carroo 28 Yd pass from Chris Laviano (Kyle Federico Kick)
+19.6
FG · Q4 4:21
Kyle Federico 22 Yd Field Goal
+17.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com