Try the model
MINN

Minnesota 41 at Purdue 13

PUR
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Ross-Ade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:13 · Ryan Santoso 50 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Home team on offense+0.3Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Pregame prior−4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:18: D.J. Knox 1 Yd Run (Paul Griggs PAT failed) — PUR win probability +1.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:12: Mitch Leidner 1 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick) — MINN win probability +8.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:06: Shannon Brooks 71 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick) — MINN win probability +12.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:25: Brandon Lingen 3 Yd pass from Mitch Leidner (Ryan Santoso Kick) — MINN win probability +11.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:27: Brandon Lingen 17 Yd pass from Mitch Leidner (Ryan Santoso Kick) — MINN win probability +5.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 8 of 13MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 10:27PUR 4th & 1 at MINN 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.4%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:21MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 34, down 6
    Close callPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:13PUR 4th & 3 at PUR 28, up 6
    Close callPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:28MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 39, down 6
    Close callPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:47PUR 4th & 10 at PUR 13, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:51MINN 4th & 8 at PUR 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:24PUR 4th & 3 at PUR 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:40MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:13MINN 4th & 7 at PUR 33, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.5%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:09PUR 4th & 16 at PUR 6, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−3.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:12PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:38PUR 4th & 12 at PUR 16, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:20PUR 4th & 10 at MINN 40, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−0.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:02PUR 4th & 2 at PUR 33, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:51PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 39, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:37MINN 4th & 7 at PUR 36, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−<0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:06PUR 4th & 10 at PUR 9, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:57MINN 4th & 8 at PUR 8, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:36MINN 4th & 8 at PUR 44, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:05PUR 4th & 2 at PUR 42, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:07PUR 4th & 5 at MINN 32, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:18PUR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:12MINN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:06MINN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:25MINN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:27MINN Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:11MINN Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:39PUR Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3743% → 46%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.6%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.6%
D.J. Knox run for 4 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
42.8%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 7 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
43.0%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 33Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+14
43.1%
D.J. Knox run for 14 yds to the Prdue 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
43.4%
D.J. Knox run for 1 yd to the Prdue 48Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
43.6%
David Blough pass incomplete to Cameron PoseySimilar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+41
43.4%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 41 yds to the Minn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
44.0%
David Blough run for 2 yds to the Minn 9Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+4
44.2%
D.J. Knox run for 4 yds to the Minn 5Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+3
44.3%
David Blough run for 3 yds to the Minn 2Similar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+1
44.2%
David Blough run for 1 yd to the Minn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.0%
D.J. Knox 1 Yd Run (Paul Griggs PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3455% → 54%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
45.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
46.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 2 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
46.4%
Peter Mortell punt for 50 yds , Frankie Williams returns for 5 yds to the Prdue 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5747% → 46%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
46.7%
Markell Jones run for 4 yds to the Prdue 25Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+3
46.8%
Markell Jones run for 3 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
46.8%
David Blough pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
46.4%
Joe Schopper punt for 39 yds, fair catch by KJ Maye at the Minn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3754% → 52%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
46.5%
KJ Maye run for 7 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+1
46.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 41Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 2
OWN 41
-2
46.6%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Danny Ezechukwu for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 39Similar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+1
47.7%
Peter Mortell punt for 49 yds , Frankie Williams returns for 1 yd to the Prdue 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2348% → 48%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
48.1%
Markell Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 12Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+1
48.4%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd to the Prdue 13Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
48.4%
David Blough pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 10
OWN 13
+10
48.2%
Joe Schopper punt for 51 yds , KJ Maye returns for 10 yds to the Minn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:4953% → 53%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
47.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 2 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
47.7%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
47.1%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
47.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 20 yds to the Prdue 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
46.7%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Nate Wozniak) to the Prdue 27Similar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+5
47.6%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the Prdue 22Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
47.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 7 yds to the Prdue 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 15
-5
48.0%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Tyler Moore) to the Prdue 20Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
48.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brandon LingenSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
47.2%
Ryan Santoso 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:0448% → 48%
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
47.8%
David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 9 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
48.8%
David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 4 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
48.9%
David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 7 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
49.7%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
49.0%
David Blough pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
48.2%
Joe Schopper punt for 42 yds, fair catch by KJ Maye at the Minn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3351% → 49%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
48.7%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+1
49.0%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 17Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
50.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
51.3%
Peter Mortell punt for 32 yds , Trae Hart returns for no gain to the Minn 49 Trae Hart fumbled, recovered by Minn Jack LynnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9MISSED FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0552% → 50%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
47.8%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+12
47.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 12 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
47.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
48.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 5 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 5
OPP 31
-2
47.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 33Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+50
49.6%
Ryan Santoso 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4750% → 50%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
50.4%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
50.3%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd to the Prdue 34Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+6
49.7%
David Blough pass intercepted Jalen Myrick return for 6 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:4851% → 61%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
48.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 9 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 1
OPP 28
0
47.7%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Prdue 28Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+4
48.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Prdue 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+23
47.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 23 yds to the Prdue 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
48.1%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Prdue 1Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.5%
Mitch Leidner 1 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:5143% → 41%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
42.6%
D.J. Knox run for 1 yd to the Prdue 13Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 13
-11
42.5%
David Blough sacked by Jack Lynn for a loss of 11 yards to the Prdue 2Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 20
OWN 2
+4
41.1%
D.J. Knox run for 4 yds to the Prdue 6Similar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 16
OWN 6
+20
40.6%
Joe Schopper punt for 51 yds , KJ Maye returns for 20 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:1061% → 63%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
38.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 7 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+4
37.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Prdue 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
37.1%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Danny Ezechukwu return for no gain to the Prdue 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 1:2642% → 42%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
42.0%
D.J. Knox run for 6 yds to the Prdue 8Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+13
41.8%
D.J. Knox run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 6 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Prdue 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
42.5%
David Blough pass complete to D.J. Knox for 8 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+9
44.3%
David Blough pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 9 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
43.6%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
43.4%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 3 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
42.5%
David Blough pass incomplete to Evyn CooperSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
41.7%
Joe Schopper punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
39.4%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 0:4459% → 71%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
41.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 5 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+71
29.2%
Shannon Brooks 71 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0729% → 27%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
29.3%
Markell Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 17Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 11
OWN 17
0
29.0%
David Blough pass incomplete to Cameron PoseySimilar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 11
OWN 17
-1
27.8%
David Blough sacked by Steven Richardson for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 16Similar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 12
OWN 16
0
26.8%
Joe Schopper punt for 41 yds, fair catch by KJ Maye at the Minn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 5:0573% → 89%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
27.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+25
26.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 25 yds to the Prdue 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
26.2%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+10
25.3%
Rodney Smith run for 10 yds to the Prdue 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
24.9%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Prdue 10Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+3
23.6%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Prdue 7Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
23.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Prdue 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
23.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd to the Prdue 4Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
22.4%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Prdue 3Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
11.2%
Brandon Lingen 3 Yd pass from Mitch Leidner (Ryan Santoso Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 25 yds · 1:5515% → 14%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
14.7%
David Blough pass complete to D.J. Knox for 2 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
14.5%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+11
14.3%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 11 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
15.4%
David Blough pass complete to D.J. Knox for no gain to the Prdue 48Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
14.9%
D.J. Knox run for 12 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
15.4%
David Blough pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
15.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
14.8%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
14.2%
David Blough pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:4391% → 99%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
9.1%
KJ Maye pass complete to Mitch Leidner for 16 yds to the Prdue 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
8.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+12
7.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 12 yds to the Prdue 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
6.2%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+2
5.8%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Prdue 21Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+4
5.8%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Prdue 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
0.7%
Brandon Lingen 17 Yd pass from Mitch Leidner (Ryan Santoso Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+27
1.9%
Jalen Myrick 27 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Santoso Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22INT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:141% → 1%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.9%
D.J. Knox run for 3 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
0.9%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
0.8%
David Blough pass complete to Trae Hart for 5 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q3 0:02
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+3
0.7%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 3 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
0.7%
David Blough sacked by Yoshoub Timms for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 33Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+6
0.6%
David Blough run for 6 yds to the Prdue 39Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
0.5%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:51
4TH & 7
OWN 39
-3
0.5%
David Blough pass intercepted De'Vondre Campbell return for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 3:0399% → 100%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
0.6%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 12 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
0.5%
Demry Croft run for 2 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-2
0.5%
Demry Croft run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 39Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+3
0.4%
Demry Croft pass complete to Nick Hart for 3 yds to the Prdue 36Similar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
0.4%
Peter Mortell punt for 27 yds, downed at the Prdue 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:240% → 0%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
0.3%
David Blough pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
0.3%
David Blough pass incomplete to Cameron PoseySimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
0.3%
David Blough pass incomplete to Domonique YoungSimilar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 10
OWN 9
0
0.2%
Joe Schopper punt for 46 yds , KiAnte Hardin returns for no gain to the Minn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 4:03100% → 100%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
0.3%
Berkley Edwards run for 2 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
0.3%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Melvin Holland JrSimilar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-5
0.3%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Delay of Game (Demry Croft) to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+21
0.3%
Berkley Edwards run for 21 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+34
0.2%
Demry Croft run for 34 yds to the Prdue 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
0.2%
Edwards, Berkley rush for no gain to the PURDUE3, PENALTY MINNESOTA holding (Christenson, Jon) 10 yards to the PURDUE13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+1
0.2%
Berkley Edwards run for 1 yd to the Prdue 12Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
0.2%
Demry Croft pass complete to Chris Streveler for 4 yds to the Prdue 8Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
0.2%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Melvin Holland JrSimilar
Q4 5:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
0.2%
Ryan Santoso 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 26TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:120% → 0%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
David Blough pass incomplete to Shane MikeskySimilar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
0.1%
David Blough run for 5 yds to the Prdue 30 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Huff) to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+40
0.1%
David Blough pass complete to Shane Mikesky for 40 yds to the Minn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
0.2%
D.J. Knox run for 5 yds to the Minn 10Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
0.2%
Cole Herdman 10 Yd pass from David Blough (Paul Griggs Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:24100% → 100%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
0.1%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for no gain to the Prdue 46Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
0.1%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 2 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
0.1%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Nate WozniakSimilar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
0.2%
Peter Mortell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Frankie Williams at the Prdue 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 28DOWNS
13 plays · 57 yds · 2:190% → 0%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
0.1%
David Blough pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 11 yds to the Prdue 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
0.1%
David Blough pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 12 yds to the Prdue 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
0.1%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
0.1%
David Blough pass complete to Shane Mikesky for 9 yds to the Prdue 43Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-1
0.1%
David Yancey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 42Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 2
OWN 42
+7
0.1%
D.J. Knox run for 7 yds to the Prdue 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
0.1%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 14 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
0.1%
David Blough pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 5 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
0.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to Shane MikeskySimilar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
0.1%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 5
OPP 32
0
0.1%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:35100% → 100%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
0.1%
Berkley Edwards run for 2 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+3
0.1%
Berkley Edwards run for 3 yds to the Minn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:06
Shannon Brooks 71 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick)
-12
TD · Q3 7:25
Brandon Lingen 3 Yd pass from Mitch Leidner (Ryan Santoso Kick)
-11.2
TD · Q2 5:12
Mitch Leidner 1 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick)
-8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com