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WIS

Wisconsin 23 at Nebraska 21

NEB
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:13 · Sam Foltz punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Pregame prior+2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:40: Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +12.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:31: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 41 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +11.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:08: Alec Ingold run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +31.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:38: Andy Janovich run for 55 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +37.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:04: Rafael Gaglianone 46 yd FG GOOD — WIS win probability +57.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 7 of 10WIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 12:59NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:49WIS 4th & 10 at NEB 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:12NEB 4th & 1 at NEB 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:13WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:13NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:42WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:07NEB 4th & 4 at NEB 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:03WIS 4th & 2 at NEB 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    45.3%−0.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:00WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:01WIS 4th & 7 at WIS 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:37NEB 4th & 9 at WIS 35, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    69.1%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:16WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:18NEB 4th & 6 at WIS 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    73.9%−1.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:03WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 46, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%−3.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:01NEB 4th & 5 at NEB 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−1.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:06WIS 4th & 8 at NEB 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−9.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:40NEB 4th & 4 at NEB 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:43NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:17WIS 4th & 2 at NEB 24, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.3%−3.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−20.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:26WIS 4th & 4 at NEB 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−16.6
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−30.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:03NEB 4th & 5 at NEB 26, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−6.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 9:45WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:40NEB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:31NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:08WIS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−1.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:38NEB Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEBDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4654% → 54%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
53.5%
De'Mornay Pierson-El run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 22Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+9
53.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 9 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
53.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 3 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q1 13:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
53.6%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (Andy Janovich) to the Neb 29Similar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
53.6%
Sam Foltz punt for 27 yds, downed at the Wisc 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:4147% → 46%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
53.5%
Taiwan Deal run for 5 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
53.5%
Taiwan Deal run for no gain to the Wisc 49Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+11
53.6%
Joel Stave run for 11 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
53.4%
Taiwan Deal run for 1 yd to the Neb 39Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+14
53.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 14 yds to the Neb 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
53.3%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Tanner McEvoySimilar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
53.3%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Tanner McEvoySimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
53.5%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
53.9%
Rafael Gaglianone 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1754% → 54%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.2%
Terrell Newby run for 9 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
54.6%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
54.4%
Imani Cross run for 3 yds to the Neb 39Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
54.7%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
54.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd to the Neb 45Similar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
54.4%
Sam Foltz punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:4246% → 46%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
54.0%
Taiwan Deal run for 2 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
54.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 7 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
54.1%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
54.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 11 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
53.4%
Alec Ingold run for 2 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
53.3%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Eric SteffesSimilar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
53.7%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
54.5%
Drew Meyer punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5155% → 54%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
54.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
54.4%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the Neb 21Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
53.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
53.6%
Sam Foltz punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1346% → 46%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
54.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 5 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
53.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
53.1%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Eric SteffesSimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
54.2%
Drew Meyer punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:3055% → 55%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
54.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+16
54.9%
Terrell Newby run for 16 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
55.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
55.3%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q1 0:17
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
55.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Devine OzigboSimilar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+6
54.8%
Sam Foltz punt for 41 yds , Alex Erickson returns for 6 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8TD
19 plays · 77 yds · 5:1546% → 52%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
54.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 20 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
52.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 20 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
52.4%
Alec Ingold run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 38Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+9
52.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jordan Fredrick for 9 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
52.3%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+4
53.9%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 4 yds to the Neb 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
52.2%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
52.3%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Walker Williams) to the Neb 30Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
53.0%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Dare OgunbowaleSimilar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+16
54.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 16 yds to the Neb 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
52.1%
Alec Ingold run for 3 yds to the Neb 11Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+9
52.1%
Stave, Joel pass incomplete to Erickson, Alex, PENALTY NEBRASKA pass interference 9 yards to the NEBRASKA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 0
OPP 2
-5
51.6%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Troy Fumagalli) to the Neb 7Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-7
52.1%
Joel Stave sacked by Vincent Valentine for a loss of 7 yards to the Neb 14Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+7
52.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 7 yds to the Neb 7Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
44.3%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 7 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 15
OWN 35
-5
47.6%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9TD
16 plays · 77 yds · 6:3546% → 60%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
45.7%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the Neb 24Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+6
45.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 6 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+9
45.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 9 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
45.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
44.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 6 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+8
45.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 8 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
46.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 5
OPP 42
-5
46.4%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 47Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
45.8%
Devine Ozigbo run for 3 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+19
45.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 19 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
47.1%
Imani Cross run for 4 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
47.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+12
45.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 12 yds to the Wisc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
46.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the Wisc 7Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
59.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3548% → 46%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
52.3%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 6 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
51.1%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Robert WheelwrightSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
52.3%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to George RushingSimilar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
53.9%
Drew Meyer punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jordan Westerkamp at the Neb 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:2057% → 70%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
57.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
58.3%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+6
57.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
50
+9
59.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 9 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+41
70.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 41 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:2432% → 33%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
67.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 14 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
66.2%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 13 yds to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
65.8%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Dare OgunbowaleSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
67.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for no gain to the Neb 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5434% → 31%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 0
OWN 25
0
66.2%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 0
OWN 25
+3
67.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 0
OWN 28
0
67.7%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q3 14:01
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
69.1%
Drew Meyer punt for 22 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14MISSED FG
10 plays · 15 yds · 3:1471% → 69%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
50
+6
70.8%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
71.3%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+6
70.4%
Imani Cross run for 6 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
71.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-15
71.2%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Neb 49Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 25
OWN 49
+15
70.3%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Derrick Tindal) to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
72.2%
Terrell Newby run for 4 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-3
72.7%
Terrell Newby run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 35Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
71.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+52
69.3%
Drew Brown 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5932% → 29%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
68.2%
Reggie Love run for 1 yd to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
68.3%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Dare OgunbowaleSimilar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
69.9%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+22
71.0%
Drew Meyer punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 48 NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Neb 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:5474% → 74%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
74.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
73.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 11 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
75.2%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+2
76.5%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
76.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q3 7:18
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
74.4%
Sam Foltz punt for 42 yds, downed at the Wisc 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:5729% → 29%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
70.8%
Joel Stave run for 3 yds to the Wisc 4Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+3
71.4%
Alec Ingold run for 3 yds to the Wisc 7Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+30
72.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 30 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
69.7%
Alec Ingold run for 1 yd to the Wisc 38Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+8
70.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 8 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
69.2%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Reggie LoveSimilar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
70.8%
Drew Meyer punt for 53 yds, downed at the Neb 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4475% → 73%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
75.1%
Imani Cross run for 5 yds to the Neb 6Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 5
OWN 6
0
75.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
74.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+3
73.0%
Sam Foltz punt for 57 yds , Alex Erickson returns for 3 yds to the Wisc 40 WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Wisc 30 Penalty NEBRASKA personal foul (15 Yards) to the Wisc 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:2430% → 36%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
70.2%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+26
71.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 11 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
69.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Eric Steffes for 15 yds to the Neb 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
66.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
68.4%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q3 1:13
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
71.3%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+45
63.7%
Rafael Gaglianone 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1769% → 68%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
69.2%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the Neb 36Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
69.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 5 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
70.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
68.3%
Sam Foltz punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the Wisc 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 4:1134% → 70%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
66.1%
Alec Ingold run for 6 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+10
65.7%
Joel Stave pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 10 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+24
65.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 24 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
61.2%
Alec Ingold run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 45Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
62.9%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+15
64.7%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Neb 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
59.7%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+15
59.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 15 yds to the Neb 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
59.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 7 yds to the Neb 8Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 3
OPP 8
-2
59.2%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 10Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+9
61.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 9 yds to the Neb 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.2%
Alec Ingold run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5041% → 37%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
41.0%
Alonzo Moore run for 1 yd to the Neb 26Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
40.6%
Andy Janovich run for 2 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
38.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
37.0%
Sam Foltz punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the Wisc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23FG
5 plays · 40 yds · 2:1568% → 80%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+32
32.5%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 32 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
28.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the Neb 31Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+6
28.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 6 yds to the Neb 25Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+1
27.7%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the Neb 24Similar
Q4 6:17
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+42
20.1%
Rafael Gaglianone 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2229% → 67%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.8%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Sojourn Shelton) to the Neb 30Similar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
31.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Terrell NewbySimilar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
29.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-10
27.5%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chongo Kondolo) to the Neb 20Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+16
25.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 16 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
28.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 5 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
29.5%
Terrell Newby run for 4 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+55
67.1%
Andy Janovich run for 55 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25MISSED FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 2:0138% → 44%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
61.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for no gain to the Wisc 9Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+31
62.3%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 31 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
56.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+16
55.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 16 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
55.3%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+12
57.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 12 yds to the Neb 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
53.7%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the Neb 26Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+2
51.8%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Neb 24Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+3
56.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the Neb 21Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
56.3%
Rafael Gaglianone 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:1872% → 72%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
71.5%
Imani Cross run for 3 yds to the Neb 24Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
73.9%
Imani Cross run for no gain to the Neb 24Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+2
71.6%
Andy Janovich run for 2 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+3
72.0%
Sam Foltz punt for 47 yds , Alex Erickson returns for 3 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27FG
6 plays · 42 yds · 0:4431% → 95%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
68.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 7 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+12
64.9%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 12 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
63.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 23 yds to the Neb 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
59.8%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Robert WheelwrightSimilar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
62.2%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+46
5.1%
Rafael Gaglianone 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:04
Rafael Gaglianone 46 yd FG GOOD
-57
TD · Q4 3:38
Andy Janovich run for 55 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+37.7
TD · Q4 10:08
Alec Ingold run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
-31
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com