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NU

Northwestern 0 at Michigan 38

MICH
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:25 · Hunter Niswander punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Home team on offense+21.6Score differential+21.3Pregame prior+14.9Blowout margin+10.0Garbage-time factor+4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:20: Drake Johnson 1 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +1.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:35: Jake Rudock 2 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +4.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:20: Jourdan Lewis 37 Yd Interception Return (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +5.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:52: Justin Jackson run for 15 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST down — NU win probability +4.0 pts (now 6%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:21: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Mike McHugh for 2 yds to the Nwest 42 — MICH win probability +3.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 7NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:59NU 4th & 10 at NU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:46NU 4th & 1 at MICH 25, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.3%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−2.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:18NU 4th & 4 at NU 36, down 21
    Close callPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:20MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:43NU 4th & 17 at NU 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:19MICH 4th & 9 at NU 34, up 21
    Close callPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:25NU 4th & 13 at NU 22, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−2.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:43MICH 4th & 10 at NU 42, up 28
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:47NU 4th & 8 at NU 42, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:14MICH 4th & 6 at NU 29, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:34NU 4th & 13 at NU 49, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:03MICH 4th & 6 at NU 45, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:09NU 4th & 10 at NU 47, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:43MICH 4th & 10 at NU 49, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:22NU 4th & 19 at NU 21, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:22MICH 4th & 1 at NU 28, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:20NU 4th & 17 at NU 28, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 14:47MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:20MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:35MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:20MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:14MICH Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3423% → 23%
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
76.7%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 20Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
76.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian Jones, broken up by Jabrill PeppersSimilar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
76.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q1 13:59
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
76.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 39 yds, downed at the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 3:2377% → 78%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
76.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 7 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+18
76.9%
De'Veon Smith run for 18 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
77.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Nwest 33Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+32
77.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 32 yds to the Nwest 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
77.2%
Jake Rudock sacked by Deonte Gibson for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 2Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
77.3%
Joe Kerridge run for 1 yd to the Nwest 1Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.3%
Drake Johnson 1 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4MISSED FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:1722% → 21%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
78.1%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 21Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
78.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+19
78.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 19 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
78.3%
Warren Long run for 6 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
78.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 5 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
78.5%
Solomon Vault run for 15 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
78.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Mike McHugh for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 36Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+10
79.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 10 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+1
78.8%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Mich 25Similar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+42
79.0%
Jack Mitchell 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0080% → 86%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
80.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 7 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
80.6%
Drake Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+34
80.5%
Joe Kerridge run for 34 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+27
81.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 27 yds to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
80.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 3 yds to the Nwest 2Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.6%
Jake Rudock 2 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0315% → 14%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
84.9%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
85.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 3 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
85.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+55
85.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the MICHIGAN 17 MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jehu Chesson) to the Mich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:5086% → 89%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
85.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the Mich 14Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+10
85.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 10 yds to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
86.9%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+13
87.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to A.J. Williams for 13 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
88.7%
Derrick Green run for 1 yd to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+2
88.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 2 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
89.0%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Grant Perry, broken up by Matthew HarrisSimilar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
88.7%
Blake O'Neill punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 20 yds · 4:2712% → 10%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.2%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Nwest 20Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
88.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Clayton Thorson for no gain to the Nwest 20Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-5
88.9%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (Eric Olson) to the Nwest 15Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+20
89.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 20 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
88.6%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+9
88.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Miles Shuler for 9 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
88.7%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 7
50
-10
88.7%
Thorson, Clayton pass incomplete to Kidd, Garrett, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN holding (Park, Ian) 10 yards to the NORTHWSTRN40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 17
OWN 40
-3
89.8%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 20
OWN 37
+5
90.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Maurice Hurst) to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 15
OWN 42
-2
89.8%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Willie Henry for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 17
OWN 40
0
90.1%
Hunter Niswander punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:1492% → 93%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
92.0%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 30Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+9
91.9%
Karan Higdon run for 9 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+13
92.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to A.J. Williams for 13 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
93.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Drake Harris for 13 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
93.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-1
93.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 34Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
93.2%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
92.8%
Blake O'Neill punt for 26 yds, downed at the Nwest 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10INT TD
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:518% → 3%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
91.8%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 11
-2
91.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 7 yds to the Nwest 18 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Illegal Block (Austin Carr) to the Nwest 9Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
92.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Mike McHugh, broken up by Jabrill PeppersSimilar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+37
97.4%
Jourdan Lewis 37 Yd Interception Return (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:473% → 2%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.4%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
97.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
97.6%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Willie Henry for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 22Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
97.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:3598% → 98%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
97.5%
Jake Rudock run for 13 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
97.4%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara Darboh, broken up by Anthony WalkerSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
97.4%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu Chesson, broken up by Nick VanHooseSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
97.3%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 10
OPP 42
+52
97.7%
Blake O'Neill punt for 42 yds for a touchback NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Warren Long)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:142% → 2%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
98.0%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 13
-5
97.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 8Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 12
OWN 8
-1
97.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:056% → 1%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.5%
Justin Jackson run for 15 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
97.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Mike McHugh for 2 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
98.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
98.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Mike McHughSimilar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
98.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 3:2199% → 99%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
98.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 19 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
98.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+12
98.9%
Jehu Chesson run for 12 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
99.0%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+4
99.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 5
OPP 28
-1
99.1%
Jake Rudock sacked by Max Chapman for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+47
99.2%
Kenny Allen 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:311% → 1%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.2%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+25
99.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 10 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (James Ross) to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-3
99.2%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 49Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 13
OWN 49
0
99.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
99.3%
Hunter Niswander punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 5:17100% → 100%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.5%
Jake Rudock run for no gain to the Mich 26Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.5%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+8
99.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 8 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
99.6%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 35 MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kyle Kalis) declinedSimilar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+12
99.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Drake Harris for 12 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
99.6%
Sione Houma run for 4 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.7%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+3
99.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 3 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-2
99.7%
Jake Rudock sacked by Anthony Walker and Deonte Gibson for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
99.7%
Blake O'Neill punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:500% → 0%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
99.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Jelani RobertsSimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+12
99.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 12 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.7%
Jelani Roberts run for 11 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
99.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 11 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Mike McHugh, broken up by Jourdan LewisSimilar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
99.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
99.7%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 47Similar
Q3 1:09
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
99.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 5:20100% → 100%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
99.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 5 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+10
99.7%
Derrick Green run for 10 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.8%
Derrick Green run for 6 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-2
99.8%
Derrick Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+6
99.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to A.J. Williams for 6 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.8%
Derrick Green run for 9 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
99.8%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
99.8%
Jehu Chesson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Mich 45Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 16
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+6
99.9%
Ty Isaac run for 6 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Blake O'Neill punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
99.9%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Jelani Roberts for 12 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-9
99.9%
Zack Oliver sacked by Ryan Glasgow for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 21Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 19
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Christian Jones, broken up by Jabrill PeppersSimilar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 19
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
Q4 9:22
4TH & 19
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 6:59100% → 100%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
Derrick Green run for 6 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+7
99.9%
Ty Isaac run for 7 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
99.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to A.J. Williams for 16 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
99.9%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+2
99.9%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+4
99.9%
Derrick Green run for 4 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+4
99.9%
Sione Houma run for 4 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
99.9%
Derrick Green run for 1 yd to the Nwest 23Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+10
100.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Maurice Ways for 10 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
100.0%
Derrick Green run for 4 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
100.0%
Sione Houma run for 5 yds to the Nwest 4Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
Derrick Green 4 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Matt Alviti pass incomplete to Auston AndersonSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+12
100.0%
Matt Alviti pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 12 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
100.0%
Matt Alviti sacked by Taco Charlton for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 28Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 17
OWN 28
0
100.0%
Matt Alviti run for no gain to the Nwest 28Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 17
OWN 28
0
100.0%
Matt Alviti pass incomplete NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Eric Olson) declinedSimilar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 17
OWN 28
+5
100.0%
Matt Alviti run for 5 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:20
Jourdan Lewis 37 Yd Interception Return (Kenny Allen Kick)
+5.5
TD · Q1 2:35
Jake Rudock 2 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick)
+4.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:52
Justin Jackson run for 15 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST down
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com