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ILL

Illinois 20 at Iowa 29

IOWA
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:56 · Ryan Frain punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Pregame prior+12.9Home team on offense+3.3Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score differential+0.2Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:50: Jordan Canzeri 17 Yd pass from C.J. Beathard (Marshall Koehn Kick) — IOWA win probability +7.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 11:32: Taylor Zalewski 37 Yd Field Goal — ILL win probability +5.3 pts (now 29%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:45: Jordan Canzeri 75 Yd Run (Marshall Koehn Kick) — IOWA win probability +13.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:13: Geronimo Allison 53 Yd pass from Wes Lunt (Taylor Zalewski Kick) — ILL win probability +19.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q4 3:20: Marshall Koehn 34 Yd Field Goal — IOWA win probability +6.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 7 of 11ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:46IOWA 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:00ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:52IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 49, down 1
    Close callPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:50ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:55IOWA 4th & 1 at ILL 6, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    70.5%−0.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−3.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:03IOWA 4th & 1 at ILL 1, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    69.4%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    66.5%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:02ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 19, up 1
    Close callPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:56ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:01IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:45ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 38, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:15IOWA 4th & 1 at ILL 1, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−6.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:00IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:33ILL 4th & 12 at IOWA 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−1.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    23.9%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:02IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 35, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−2.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:56ILL 4th & 7 at IOWA 22, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−9.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:23IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:20IOWA 4th & 5 at ILL 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−17.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:11IOWA 4th & 3 at ILL 22, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%−0.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−4.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:31ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 40, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 8:30IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:29ILL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:50IOWA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:45IOWA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:13ILL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:5471% → 71%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.7%
Jordan Canzeri run for 4 yds to the Iowa 29Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
70.7%
C.J. Beathard run for 14 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
70.7%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 3 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
70.7%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jerminic SmithSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+4
70.5%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:46
4TH & 3
50
0
70.5%
Marshall Koehn punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:2530% → 30%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
70.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
70.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
70.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
70.5%
Ryan Frain punt for 44 yds , Desmond King returns for no gain to the Iowa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 3:1570% → 72%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
70.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for 2 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+19
70.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 4 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Carroll Phillips) to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
70.5%
Jordan Canzeri run for 2 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+14
70.5%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jerminic Smith for 14 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
70.6%
Jordan Canzeri run for 2 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+9
70.5%
C.J. Beathard run for 9 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
72.0%
George Kittle 21 Yd pass from C.J. Beathard (Marshall Koehn PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 1:4829% → 32%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
71.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
71.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+34
71.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 34 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+27
70.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 27 yds to the Iowa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
70.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Andrew DavisSimilar
Q1 6:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn 4 Yd Run (Taylor Zalewski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:1868% → 68%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.4%
Jordan Canzeri run for 3 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
68.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Chunky Clements) to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
68.9%
Jordan Canzeri run for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 38Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+11
68.1%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 11 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
68.7%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 4
OWN 49
+18
68.2%
Dillon Kidd punt for 35 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 18 yds to the Illin 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5632% → 31%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
68.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-2
68.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Sam Mays for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 12
OWN 32
0
68.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 12
OWN 32
+16
68.8%
Ryan Frain punt for 40 yds , Desmond King returns for 16 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7DOWNS
14 plays · 55 yds · 5:2769% → 67%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
68.6%
Jordan Canzeri run for 9 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
68.9%
Jordan Canzeri run for 3 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
68.8%
Beathard, C.J. pass incomplete to Smith, Jerminic, PENALTY IOWA clipping (Boettger, Ike) 15 yards to the IOWA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 25
OWN 41
-2
67.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 39Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 27
OWN 39
0
67.4%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Henry Krieger CobleSimilar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 27
OWN 39
+46
66.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jerminic Smith for 46 yds to the Illin 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
69.1%
Jordan Canzeri run for 3 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+4
69.0%
Jordan Canzeri run for 4 yds to the Illin 8Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+2
68.2%
Jordan Canzeri run for 2 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q2 13:55
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
67.6%
C.J. Beathard run for 2 yds to the Illin 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
68.9%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to George KittleSimilar
Q2 13:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
68.9%
Jordan Canzeri run for 2 yds to the Illin 2Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
68.0%
Jordan Canzeri run for 1 yd to the Illin 1Similar
Q2 12:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.1%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:2835% → 34%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+12
65.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 12 yds to the Illin 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
65.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+3
65.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
65.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 4
OWN 19
+10
66.0%
Ryan Frain punt for 49 yds , Desmond King returns for 10 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:0067% → 75%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
67.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 39Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 13
OWN 39
0
66.0%
C.J. Beathard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+49
65.1%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jerminic Smith for 49 yds to the Illin 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
68.5%
Jordan Canzeri run for no gain to the Illin 12Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-5
67.7%
IOWA Penalty, False Start (James Daniels) to the Illin 17Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 15
OPP 17
+17
75.1%
Jordan Canzeri 17 Yd pass from C.J. Beathard (Marshall Koehn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3428% → 27%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
71.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
72.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
72.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
73.3%
Ryan Frain punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5074% → 73%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.4%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Henry Krieger CobleSimilar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
74.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 4 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
74.1%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
73.0%
Dillon Kidd punt for 55 yds, downed at the Illin 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:5528% → 26%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
72.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 6Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+5
75.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 5 yds to the Illin 11Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+18
74.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 18 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
73.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-5
73.6%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Austin Schmidt) to the Illin 25Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+13
74.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 13 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 1
OWN 38
0
72.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
73.6%
Ryan Frain punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13FG
16 plays · 74 yds · 2:1575% → 77%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.5%
Jordan Canzeri run for 1 yd to the Iowa 26Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
74.3%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 10 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
75.3%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jordan CanzeriSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
74.9%
Jordan Canzeri run for 11 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
76.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jerminic Smith for 9 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+32
76.5%
Jordan Canzeri run for 32 yds to the Illin 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
76.9%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jerminic SmithSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+8
77.0%
C.J. Beathard run for 8 yds to the Illin 4Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
76.0%
Jordan Canzeri run for 3 yds to the Illin 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.5%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Henry Krieger CobleSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.2%
Jordan Canzeri run for no gain to the Illin 1Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.6%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jerminic SmithSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
76.5%
Marshall Koehn 19 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
78.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 3:0823% → 29%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
76.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+6
76.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 6 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
76.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 11 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
75.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+13
75.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 13 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+32
74.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 32 yds to the Iowa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 0
OPP 8
-5
72.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 13Similar
Q3 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+1
73.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Henry Enyenihi for 1 yd to the Iowa 12Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
75.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Henry Enyenihi for 3 yds to the Iowa 9Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
76.3%
Wes Lunt sacked by Drew Ott for a loss of 10 yards to the Iowa 19Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+37
71.0%
Taylor Zalewski 37 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1075% → 74%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
74.6%
Jordan Canzeri run for 8 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
75.7%
Jordan Canzeri run for 5 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
75.9%
Jordan Canzeri run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 34Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 14
OWN 34
0
74.5%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+6
73.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 6 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+5
73.7%
Dillon Kidd punt for 49 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 5 yds to the Illin 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:1727% → 26%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
72.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 16 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
71.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Sam Mays for 7 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+2
69.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
70.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
70.3%
IOWA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Greg Mabin) to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
69.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 4 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-6
68.5%
Wes Lunt sacked by Nathan Bazata for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 43Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 12
OPP 43
0
71.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
73.7%
Ryan Frain punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:0875% → 73%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
75.1%
Jordan Canzeri run for 17 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
76.2%
Jordan Canzeri run for 2 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
77.1%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Adam CoxSimilar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-4
75.4%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Dawuane Smoot for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 35Similar
Q3 5:02
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
73.2%
Dillon Kidd punt for 44 yds, fair catch by V'Angelo Bentley at the Illin 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 1:5428% → 33%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+29
72.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
50
+10
68.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 10 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
68.5%
IOWA Penalty, Personal Foul (Greg Mabin) to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
66.4%
Wes Lunt sacked by Jaleel Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 29Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+7
69.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 7 yds to the Iowa 22Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
68.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
66.6%
Taylor Zalewski 40 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
83.8%
Jordan Canzeri 75 Yd Run (Marshall Koehn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21INT
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:2717% → 18%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
82.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+5
82.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 5 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
82.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
82.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 7 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
82.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 4 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
82.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Malik Turner) to the Illin 46Similar
Q3 0:14
1ST & 15
OWN 46
0
84.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+14
85.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 14 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
82.5%
Geronimo Allison pass intercepted Greg Mabin return for no gain to the Iowa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0785% → 86%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
85.2%
Jordan Canzeri run for 5 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
85.4%
Jordan Canzeri run for 7 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
86.1%
Jordan Canzeri run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 31Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+4
86.5%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Derrick Mitchell Jr. for 4 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
86.3%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jacob HillyerSimilar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
85.7%
Dillon Kidd punt for 50 yds, fair catch by V'Angelo Bentley at the Illin 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:0514% → 35%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
86.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
86.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+15
87.3%
IOWA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Joshua Jackson) to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
85.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 5 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
84.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Henry EnyenihiSimilar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+6
85.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Henry Enyenihi for 6 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
84.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 2 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+53
64.6%
Geronimo Allison 53 Yd pass from Wes Lunt (Taylor Zalewski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 6:3573% → 89%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.9%
Jordan Canzeri run for 8 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+13
74.8%
Jordan Canzeri run for 13 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
75.8%
Jordan Canzeri run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 6
50
+7
76.4%
Jordan Canzeri run for 7 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
76.8%
Jordan Canzeri run for 5 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
76.6%
Jordan Canzeri run for 4 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+1
77.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for 1 yd to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
78.9%
Jordan Canzeri run for 1 yd to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+11
78.9%
Jordan Canzeri run for 11 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
82.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for 4 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+1
83.7%
Jordan Canzeri run for 1 yd to the Illin 16Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
82.6%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jerminic SmithSimilar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
89.1%
Marshall Koehn 34 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Illin 29 Ke'Shawn Vaughn fumbled, forced by Parker Hesse, recovered by Iowa Josey JewellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 26FG
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:2994% → 95%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
93.5%
Jordan Canzeri run for 5 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 5
OPP 24
-1
93.6%
Jordan Canzeri run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+3
93.8%
Jordan Canzeri run for 3 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+40
95.3%
Marshall Koehn 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:354% → 3%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.4%
IOWA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Desmond King) to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
95.9%
V'Angelo Bentley run for no gain to the Illin 40Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
96.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
96.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
96.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Caleb DaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -7 yds · 1:0096% → 96%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 13
OPP 43
-2
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 45
-2
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:13
Geronimo Allison 53 Yd pass from Wes Lunt (Taylor Zalewski Kick)
-19.7
TD · Q3 2:45
Jordan Canzeri 75 Yd Run (Marshall Koehn Kick)
+13.5
TD · Q2 7:50
Jordan Canzeri 17 Yd pass from C.J. Beathard (Marshall Koehn Kick)
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com