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Minnesota 0 at Northwestern 27

NU
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:08 · Demry Croft pass incomplete to Eric Carter, broken up by Nick VanHoose
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Home team on offense+35.9Score differential+32.0Pregame prior+2.3Garbage-time factor+9.8Blowout margin+16.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:36: Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +9.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:56: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 6 — NU win probability +3.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:13: Jack Mitchell 23 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +4.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:04: Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 31 — NU win probability +4.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:25: Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +7.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10MINN made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00MINN 4th & 3 at NU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    31.8%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:27NU 4th & 3 at MINN 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:06MINN 4th & 7 at NU 31, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00NU 4th & 1 at NU 40, up 3
    Close callPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:07NU 4th & 3 at MINN 23, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.9%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:07MINN 4th & 15 at MINN 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:55NU 4th & 11 at NU 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:46MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:18MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00NU 4th & 7 at MINN 29, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    76.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−4.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:13NU 4th & 6 at MINN 6, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−6.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:05MINN 4th & 2 at NU 31, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    14.0%−1.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00MINN 4th & 12 at MINN 28, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:48NU 4th & 17 at MINN 42, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:41MINN 4th & 20 at MINN 26, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:16NU 4th & 1 at NU 41, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:08MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 49, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:35NU 4th & 9 at MINN 47, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:22MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 37, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:19NU 4th & 10 at NU 17, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:10MINN 4th & 13 at MINN 35, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 1:36NU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 1:25NU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
67.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 8 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+4
67.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
67.1%
Rodney Smith run for 11 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
67.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Eric CarterSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
67.1%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
67.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ Maye, broken up by Matthew HarrisSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
67.1%
Peter Mortell punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2FG
15 plays · 76 yds · 4:5767% → 67%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
66.9%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
66.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+16
66.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 16 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
66.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 3 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+10
67.0%
Justin Jackson run for 10 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
67.1%
Warren Long run for 4 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
67.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+9
67.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
67.2%
Solomon Vault run for 5 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+19
67.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 19 yds to the Minn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
67.2%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Minn 11Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+4
67.2%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Minn 7Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 2
OPP 7
-5
67.1%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 12Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+4
67.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 4 yds to the Minn 8Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
67.2%
Jack Mitchell 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3DOWNS
15 plays · 37 yds · 6:1533% → 32%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
67.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 5 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+7
66.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 7 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
66.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 5 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+6
66.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 6 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
66.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 5 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+4
66.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
66.6%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
66.3%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-5
66.3%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Brandon Lingen) to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+3
66.8%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+3
66.6%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 7
OPP 31
0
67.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0167% → 67%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
67.4%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 29 Clayton Thorson fumbled, recovered by Nwest Clayton Thorson , return for no gain to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+1
67.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+10
66.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 10 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
67.3%
Hunter Niswander punt for 25 yds, downed at the Minn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
67.9%
KJ Maye run for 4 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-2
67.1%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 37Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
68.2%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Matthew Harris return for no gain to the Minn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:2469% → 68%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
68.8%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
68.7%
Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+5
68.7%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
69.3%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Minn 29Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+7
69.2%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 2
OPP 22
-1
68.7%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 23Similar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+41
68.0%
Jack Mitchell 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
68.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 3 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
68.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 5 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+3
68.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 3 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
68.1%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 31Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 14
OWN 31
-1
68.6%
Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
69.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rodney SmithSimilar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
69.9%
Peter Mortell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
68.5%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
69.3%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+6
69.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 6 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
69.8%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (Justin Jackson) to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 15
OWN 40
-3
68.6%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 18
OWN 37
+3
68.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+4
67.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 4 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
67.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Craig James at the Minn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
69.2%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 11Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-1
69.3%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 10Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+7
70.1%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Minn 17Similar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 4
OWN 17
+55
70.7%
Peter Mortell punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 5 , Miles Shuler returns for 55 yds to the Minn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
80.0%
Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:1722% → 21%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
78.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 6 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 4
OWN 33
0
77.7%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Minn 33Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
78.3%
Mitch Leidner run for no gain to the Minn 33Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
78.9%
Peter Mortell punt for 65 yds, downed at the Nwest 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
77.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 5
-1
77.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13FG
21 plays · 69 yds · 8:4778% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
77.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Miles Shuler, broken up by Jalen MyrickSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
76.5%
MINNESOTA Penalty, offside defense (Theiren Cockran) to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
77.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
78.6%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 44 Justin Jackson fumbled, forced by Eric Murray, recovered by Nwest Christian Jones , return for no gain to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+4
78.6%
Warren Long run for 4 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+9
77.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Warren Long for 9 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
78.9%
Solomon Vault run for 9 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+2
79.0%
Warren Long run for 2 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
79.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
79.0%
Clayton Thorson run for 6 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 26
-3
78.3%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Theiren Cockran for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+11
77.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Mike McHugh for 11 yds to the Minn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
79.0%
Solomon Vault run for 8 yds to the Minn 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 10
0
79.0%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Minn 10Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+4
78.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the Minn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
79.0%
Warren Long run for 2 yds to the Minn 4Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
79.0%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Minn 4Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
82.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 6Similar
Q3 6:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
87.1%
Jack Mitchell 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
84.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Nate WozniakSimilar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+23
85.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 23 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
83.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Miles ThomasSimilar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
83.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 5 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+3
84.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 2
OPP 31
0
84.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Nate WozniakSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:3989% → 98%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
89.3%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+31
89.1%
Justin Jackson run for 31 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
90.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 16 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
90.0%
Justin Jackson run for 12 yds to the Minn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
90.0%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the Minn 1Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:213% → 2%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
97.2%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 27Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 13
OWN 27
0
97.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Eric CarterSimilar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+1
97.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 1 yd to the Minn 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
97.8%
Peter Mortell punt for 41 yds, downed at the Nwest 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 1:0298% → 98%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
98.1%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+14
98.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 14 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
98.1%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.6%
Warren Long run for no gain to the Minn 35Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
98.6%
Warren Long run for 3 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 7
OPP 32
-10
98.6%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete, PENALTY NU holding (Frazier, Matt) 10 yards to the MINN42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 17
OPP 42
0
98.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Mike McHughSimilar
Q4 13:48
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
98.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 38 yds, downed at the Minn 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:311% → 0%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
98.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
98.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brandon Lingen, broken up by Matthew HarrisSimilar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+12
98.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 12 yds to the Minn 16 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
99.9%
Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 1 yard Mitch Leidner fumbled, forced by Tyler Lancaster, recovered by Nwest Anthony Walker , return for 13 yds, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.9%
Demry Croft run for 11 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-10
99.9%
Demry Croft sacked by Deonte Gibson for a loss of 10 yards to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 20
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Peter Mortell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
99.9%
Solomon Vault run for 9 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 35 yds, fair catch by KJ Maye at the Minn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
99.9%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+16
99.9%
Demry Croft pass complete to KJ Maye for 16 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
Demry Croft pass complete to Nick Hart for 4 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-2
99.9%
Demry Croft sacked by Deonte Gibson and Tyler Lancaster for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Eric Carter, broken up by Nick VanHooseSimilar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Demry Croft pass incomplete to Eric Carter, broken up by Nick VanHooseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Nwest Clayton ThorsonSimilar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
Warren Long run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 12
50
+3
99.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
99.9%
Demry Croft pass complete to Nick Hart for 5 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+7
99.9%
Demry Croft run for 7 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
Demry Croft run for 3 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Demry Croft pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Demry Croft pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Peter Mortell punt for 46 yds, downed at the Nwest 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
100.0%
Auston Anderson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 18Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+1
100.0%
Auston Anderson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 19Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 8
OWN 19
-2
100.0%
Auston Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 17Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
100.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 45 yds, fair catch by KJ Maye at the Minn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
100.0%
Demry Croft pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 35Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+5
100.0%
Demry Croft pass complete to Melvin Holland Jr for 5 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-5
100.0%
Demry Croft sacked by Joseph Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 35Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 13
OWN 35
+3
100.0%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:36
Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q3 1:25
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
+7.4
FG · Q3 6:13
Jack Mitchell 23 yd FG GOOD
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com