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PUR

Purdue 21 at Michigan State 24

MSU
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scorePUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD-24.5MSU 64.8%Markell Jones 3 Yd Run (Paul GriggsKick)AWAY 21 - HOME 24 · Q4 6:44
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:44 · Markell Jones 3 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Pregame prior+7.2Home team on offense+0.1Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8Time remaining+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:39: R.J. Shelton 23 Yd pass from Connor Cook (Michael Geiger Kick) — MSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:30: Gregory Phillips 2 Yd pass from David Blough (Paul Griggs Kick) — PUR win probability +5.8 pts (now 8%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:10: Markell Jones 68 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick) — PUR win probability +9.1 pts (now 15%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:44: Markell Jones 3 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick) — PUR win probability +24.5 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:51: Markell Jones run for no gain to the Prdue 20 — PUR win probability +11.1 pts (now 25%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8PUR made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:08PUR 4th & 12 at PUR 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:56MSU 4th & 4 at PUR 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:29PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:12PUR 4th & 12 at PUR 44, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:06MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 18, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:52PUR 4th & 1 at MSU 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:49PUR 4th & 5 at MSU 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:18MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 46, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:57MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 15, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:31PUR 4th & 22 at PUR 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:04MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 49, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.4%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:28MSU 4th & 4 at PUR 18, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.3%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−3.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:54MSU 4th & 4 at PUR 13, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.3%−0.5
    85% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−8.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:58MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 48, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:58PUR 4th & 9 at PUR 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.6%−3.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PUR made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 7:11MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:28MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:39MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:30PUR Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:10PUR Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:44PUR Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:436% → 6%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
94.2%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+15
94.1%
Markell Jones run for 15 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
94.0%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 36Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
94.0%
David Blough run for no gain to the Prdue 36Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
93.9%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:08
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
93.8%
Joe Schopper punt for 32 yds, downed at the MchSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5694% → 93%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
93.8%
Trevon Pendleton run for no gain to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
93.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 4 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+9
93.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 9 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
93.5%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
93.4%
Madre London run for 4 yds to the Prdue 49Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
93.2%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
93.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 45 yds, downed at the Prdue 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:477% → 8%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
93.0%
Markell Jones run for 3 yds to the Prdue 8Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+2
92.9%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 2 yds to the Prdue 10Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+6
92.8%
Markell Jones run for 6 yds to the Prdue 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
92.6%
Markell Jones run for 11 yds to the Prdue 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
92.4%
David Blough run for no gain to the Prdue 27 David Blough fumbled, recovered by MchSt Joel HeathSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:4193% → 93%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
92.8%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+9
92.6%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds to the Prdue 18Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+18
93.2%
LJ Scott 18 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:317% → 7%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
93.0%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
93.0%
Markell Jones run for 5 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+8
93.0%
David Blough pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 8 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
92.8%
David Blough sacked by Malik McDowell for a loss of 6 yards to the Prdue 30Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+12
92.8%
Markell Jones run for 12 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
92.5%
Markell Jones run for no gain to the Prdue 42Similar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
92.6%
Joe Schopper punt for 52 yds, downed at the MchSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 94 yds · 3:4793% → 94%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+17
92.6%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
92.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Paul Lang for 2 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+34
92.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Monty Madaris for 34 yds to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+22
92.6%
LJ Scott run for 22 yds to the Prdue 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
92.5%
R.J. Shelton run for 11 yds to the Prdue 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
92.5%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Prdue 6Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
92.4%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the Prdue 1Similar
Q1 0:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.9%
LJ Scott 1 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 39 yds · 0:267% → 7%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
93.3%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 29 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
93.0%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 6 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+4
92.9%
Markell Jones run for 4 yds to the MchSt 36 Markell Jones fumbled, recovered by MchSt Riley BulloughSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 3:0694% → 96%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
93.8%
R.J. Shelton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+12
93.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Paul Lang for 12 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
93.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aj Troup for 14 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
93.9%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the Prdue 36Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+13
93.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 13 yds to the Prdue 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
96.3%
R.J. Shelton 23 Yd pass from Connor Cook (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:204% → 4%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
95.9%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
96.0%
D.J. Knox run for 5 yds to the Prdue 39Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+7
96.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
96.0%
David Blough sacked by Jon Reschke for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 44Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 12
OWN 44
0
96.1%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
96.2%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
96.2%
Joe Schopper punt for 42 yds, fair catch by R.J. Shelton at the MchSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:5097% → 97%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
96.6%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 3
OWN 21
-10
96.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MchSt 11Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 13
OWN 11
-5
96.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 6Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 18
OWN 6
+4
96.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to LJ Scott for 4 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 14
OWN 10
+13
96.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Monty Madaris for 13 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 1
OWN 23
-5
96.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 18Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
96.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 28 yds, downed at the MchSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11INT
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:064% → 4%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
95.9%
Markell Jones run for 8 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+1
95.8%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
95.9%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
96.0%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 2 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
95.8%
Markell Jones run for 2 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
95.8%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 8
OPP 33
-2
96.1%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+5
96.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 5
OPP 30
0
96.4%
David Blough pass intercepted Demetrious Cox return for no gain to the MchSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:2797% → 97%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
97.1%
Madre London run for 14 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
97.2%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+13
97.3%
Madre London run for 13 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
97.5%
Madre London run for 8 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+1
97.6%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
97.5%
Madre London run for no gain to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
97.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Frankie Williams at the Prdue 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:053% → 3%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
96.7%
Markell Jones run for 3 yds to the Prdue 18Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+4
96.9%
Markell Jones run for 4 yds to the Prdue 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4897% → 97%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
97.4%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
97.6%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
97.5%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:57
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
97.3%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Trae Hart at the Prdue 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:583% → 3%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
96.9%
D.J. Knox run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 41Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
96.9%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 11
OWN 41
-11
97.1%
David Blough sacked by Arjen Colquhoun for a loss of 11 yards to the Prdue 30Similar
Q3 12:31
4TH & 22
OWN 30
0
97.2%
Joe Schopper punt for 63 yds, downed at the MchSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 14 yds · 4:2098% → 98%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
97.6%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+7
97.7%
Connor Cook run for 7 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+25
97.7%
LJ Scott run for 25 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
97.9%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
98.0%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+1
98.0%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 2
OWN 49
-28
97.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 28 yards to the MchSt 21 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Prdue Gelen RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17TD
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:293% → 8%
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
97.2%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd to the MchSt 20Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+8
97.2%
David Blough run for 8 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+1
97.5%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd to the MchSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
97.3%
Markell Jones run for 3 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+6
97.4%
David Blough pass complete to Jordan Jurasevich for 6 yds to the MchSt 2Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
91.6%
Gregory Phillips 2 Yd pass from David Blough (Paul Griggs Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18MISSED FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:5294% → 96%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.2%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
94.3%
Connor Cook run for 13 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
94.8%
Madre London run for 13 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
94.9%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+22
94.9%
Connor Cook run for 22 yds to the Prdue 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
95.7%
Madre London run for 7 yds to the Prdue 17Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+2
95.8%
Connor Cook run for 2 yds to the Prdue 15Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-5
95.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 20Similar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+2
95.9%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the Prdue 18Similar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
95.5%
Michael Geiger 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:596% → 15%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
94.2%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 6 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
93.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (4 Yards) to the Prdue 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
93.9%
David Blough run for 2 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+68
84.8%
Markell Jones 68 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 4:0290% → 90%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
89.6%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+2
90.3%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+30
90.1%
LJ Scott run for 30 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
91.2%
Madre London run for 18 yds to the Prdue 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
91.4%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the Prdue 16Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+3
91.5%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the Prdue 13Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
90.8%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+30
90.3%
Michael Geiger 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:548% → 35%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
91.9%
Markell Jones run for 6 yds to the Prdue 27Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+20
91.0%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 20 yds to the Prdue 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
90.0%
Markell Jones run for no gain to the Prdue 47Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+35
90.2%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 35 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
89.2%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd to the MchSt 17Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+14
89.4%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 14 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.8%
Markell Jones 3 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:3178% → 86%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
78.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 4 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+3
78.1%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+8
77.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 8 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
80.5%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+4
83.1%
Connor Cook run for 4 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-1
84.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Madre London for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
86.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 28 yds · 1:5325% → 18%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
75.3%
Markell Jones run for no gain to the Prdue 20Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
77.0%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+13
78.6%
David Blough run for 13 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
75.6%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
76.6%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+4
78.6%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 4 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+10
81.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Prdue 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
77.2%
David Blough pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 6 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-5
73.7%
PURDUE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 48Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
77.8%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
80.0%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
82.1%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:3393% → 94%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
93.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 12
50
-2
94.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 14
OWN 48
-2
93.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:44
Markell Jones 3 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick)
-24.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:51
Markell Jones run for no gain to the Prdue 20
-11.1
TD · Q4 14:10
Markell Jones 68 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick)
-9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com