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MICH

Michigan 28 at Maryland 0

MD
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:54 · Blake O'Neill punt for 45 yds , William Likely returns for 12 yds to the Mary 43 MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive holding (21 Yards) to the Mary 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 175Pregame prior−2.9Home team on offense−53.8Score differential−38.9Garbage-time factor−21.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−11.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:53: Kenny Allen 32 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +4.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 12:59: Brandon Ross run for 2 yds to the Mich 43 — MD win probability +6.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:18: Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Freddy Canteen — MICH win probability +5.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:59: Jake Rudock pass complete to Drake Johnson for 31 yds for a TD, (Jake Rudock pass to Khalid Hill for Two-Point Conversion) — MICH win probability +10.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:07: Jehu Chesson run for 66 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +10.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 11 of 14MICH made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00MD 4th & 11 at MICH 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:52MICH 4th & 3 at MD 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:30MICH 4th & 2 at MD 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:30MD 4th & 4 at MD 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:29MD 4th & 4 at MD 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:09MICH 4th & 14 at MD 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:09MD 4th & 10 at MD 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:06MICH 4th & 3 at MD 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    67.5%−0.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:00MICH 4th & 10 at MD 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−4.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:55MD 4th & 5 at MD 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:22MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:47MD 4th & 17 at MD 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:53MICH 4th & 1 at MD 14, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%−0.9
    84% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−6.1
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:23MD 4th & 10 at MD 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 12:59MD 4th & 10 at MICH 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    27.5%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 11:26MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 18, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  17. Q3 7:59MD 4th & 16 at MD 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  18. Q3 5:00MD 4th & 9 at MD 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00MICH 4th & 13 at MICH 28, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 14:48MD 4th & 10 at MD 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  21. Q4 14:24MICH 4th & 18 at MD 35, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%−0.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 9:49MD 4th & 8 at MD 7, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  23. Q4 6:45MD 4th & 1 at MD 34, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  24. Q4 4:54MICH 4th & 14 at MICH 31, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  25. Q4 3:13MD 4th & 7 at MD 18, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q3 7:59MICH Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:07MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:53MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
18.7%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 11 yds to the Mary 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
18.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, encroachment (5 Yards) to the Mary 27Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 27
-1
18.7%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Brandon Ross for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+10
18.7%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 10 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
18.7%
Brandon Ross run for 18 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
18.7%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Levern Jacobs for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
18.7%
Caleb Rowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
18.7%
Caleb Rowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
18.7%
Brad Craddock punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
20.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Freddy Canteen for no gain to the Mich 27Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
20.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 2 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+15
20.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 15 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
20.0%
Ty Isaac run for 7 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
19.9%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
20.0%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
20.1%
Blake O'Neill punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3INT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
21.6%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
21.6%
Wes Brown run for no gain to the Mary 1Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+13
21.4%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Kenneth Goins Jr. for 13 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
21.6%
Brandon Ross run for 4 yds to the Mary 18Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+3
21.6%
Brandon Ross run for 3 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 3
OWN 21
-8
21.4%
Caleb Rowe run for a loss of 8 yards to the Mary 13Similar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 11
OWN 13
+15
21.3%
Pritchard, N. punt 27 yards to the UMD40, fair catch by Peppers, J, PENALTY MICH roughing the kicker (Isaac, Ty) 15 yards to the UMD28, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
21.7%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 1 yd to the Mary 29Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
21.7%
Caleb Rowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+3
21.4%
Caleb Rowe pass intercepted Jeremy Clark return for 3 yds to the Mary 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
22.7%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mary 41Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+6
22.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Drake Harris for 6 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+1
22.7%
Drake Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+4
23.1%
Jake Rudock sacked by Quinton Jefferson for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 38 Jake Rudock fumbled, recovered by Mary Roman Braglio , return for 0 yards , return for 4 yds to the Mary 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:0124% → 25%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
23.8%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 36Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+4
23.5%
Brandon Ross run for 4 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+4
23.5%
Wes Brown run for 4 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
23.4%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 28Similar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
25.0%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 36Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+4
24.7%
Brandon Ross run for 4 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+4
24.6%
Wes Brown run for 4 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
24.5%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
25.0%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 28 Ty Isaac fumbled, forced by Jalen Brooks, recovered by Mary Sean DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7INT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
27.3%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Wes Brown for 4 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
27.3%
Caleb Rowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-15
26.9%
Rowe, C. pass complete to Jacobs, L. for 10 yards to the MICH14 (Peppers, J), PENALTY UMD pass interference (Edwards, A.) 15 yards to the MICH39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 21
OPP 39
0
26.0%
Caleb Rowe pass intercepted Desmond Morgan return for no gain to the Mich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8MISSED FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:1375% → 71%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
25.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Sione Houma for 9 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+9
24.8%
Derrick Green run for 9 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
24.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Sione Houma) to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+6
25.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 6 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+2
24.8%
Drake Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+16
25.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 16 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
24.4%
Drake Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-10
24.4%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete MICHIGAN Penalty, intentional grounding (Jake Rudock) to the Mary 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 34
+5
25.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 5 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+47
28.7%
Kenny Allen 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
29.4%
Brandon Ross run for no gain to the Mary 29Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
29.2%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
28.4%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by Dymonte ThomasSimilar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+29
28.0%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 39 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 29 yds to the Mary 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10FG
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:0573% → 72%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
27.1%
Derrick Green run for 6 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+1
26.5%
Derrick Green run for 1 yd to the Mary 32Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
27.1%
Derrick Green run for no gain to the Mary 32Similar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+20
28.7%
Jake Rudock run for 20 yds to the Mary 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
26.9%
Drake Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mary 10Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-2
26.9%
Amara Darboh run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 12Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
28.7%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu Chesson, broken up by Sean DavisSimilar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+30
27.9%
Kenny Allen 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
29.3%
Brandon Ross run for 2 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
29.2%
Brandon Ross run for 3 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
28.9%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by Desmond MorganSimilar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
28.3%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
28.5%
Drake Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 33Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+4
29.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 4 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
29.2%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Freddy CanteenSimilar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
30.3%
Blake O'Neill punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0033% → 30%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
32.7%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 36Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 17
OWN 36
0
30.8%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Taivon Jacobs, broken up by Jourdan LewisSimilar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 17
OWN 36
0
29.9%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 17
OWN 36
0
29.6%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14FG
7 plays · 53 yds · 1:1471% → 77%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+44
29.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 44 yds to the Mary 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
26.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 8 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 2
OPP 15
0
26.8%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 2
OPP 15
-5
27.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 20Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+6
27.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 6 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+32
23.3%
Kenny Allen 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:3027% → 26%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
27.4%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+10
27.3%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to D.J. Moore for 10 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
28.9%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Levern Jacobs, broken up by Jabrill PeppersSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
28.5%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Wes BrownSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
26.3%
Caleb Rowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
25.9%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 45 yds, downed at the Mich 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-2
25.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0076% → 77%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
24.2%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 26Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
24.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 15 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
22.7%
Ty Isaac run for 3 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
22.7%
Jake Rudock pass intercepted Quinton Jefferson return for no gain to the Mich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 26%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
29.7%
Brandon Ross run for 2 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-2
29.6%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
27.8%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
26.3%
Brad Craddock punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
25.7%
Ty Isaac run for 5 yds to the Mich 9 Ty Isaac fumbled, forced by Sean Davis, recovered by Mich Ty IsaacSimilar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+5
26.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Sione Houma for 5 yds to the Mich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
25.5%
Derrick Green run for 4 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
25.5%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
26.2%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Drake HarrisSimilar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 6
OWN 18
+6
27.1%
Blake O'Neill punt for 59 yds , William Likely returns for 6 yds to the Mary 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
27.9%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Brandon RossSimilar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
27.5%
Brandon Ross run for 3 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+9
27.1%
Caleb Rowe pass intercepted Jourdan Lewis return for 9 yds to the Mary 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD
4 plays · 31 yds · 0:1978% → 89%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
21.9%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Freddy CanteenSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
22.0%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara Darboh, broken up by Yannick NgakoueSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 10
OPP 0
0
21.8%
MARYLAND Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the Mary 31Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+31
11.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Drake Johnson for 31 yds for a TD, (Jake Rudock pass to Khalid Hill for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
13.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Mary 20Similar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
13.2%
Daxx Garman run for 3 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+22
13.2%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Wes Brown for 22 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
14.8%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete, broken up by Willie HenrySimilar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
14.6%
Wes Brown run for 1 yd to the Mary 46Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-7
14.2%
Daxx Garman sacked by Matthew Godin and Mario Ojemudia for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 39Similar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 16
OWN 39
0
13.1%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23TD
1 play · 66 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
3.2%
Jehu Chesson run for 66 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
4.8%
Daxx Garman sacked by Maurice Hurst for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 25Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+14
4.6%
Brandon Ross run for 14 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-7
4.9%
Daxx Garman sacked by Willie Henry for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 32Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
4.6%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 46 yds, downed at the Mich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 25PUNT
10 plays · 6 yds · 3:0597% → 98%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
2.7%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu Chesson, broken up by William LikelySimilar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+12
2.7%
Drake Johnson run for 12 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
2.7%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Drake JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
2.7%
Drake Johnson run for 4 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+8
2.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 8 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
2.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Kyle Kalis) to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
2.7%
Drake Johnson run for 5 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
2.6%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 5
OWN 36
-8
2.6%
Jake Rudock sacked by Yannick Ngakoue for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 28
+5
2.4%
Blake O'Neill punt for 40 yds , William Likely returns for 5 yds to the Mary 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
3.4%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
3.4%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
3.3%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+9
3.3%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 42 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 9 yds to the Mich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 27PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 10:0098% → 99%
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
2.2%
Derrick Green run for 4 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+19
2.2%
Drake Johnson run for 19 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
2.0%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+7
2.0%
Jake Rudock run for 7 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+11
2.0%
Sione Houma run for 11 yds to the Mary 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
2.0%
Rudock, Jake rush for no gain to the UMD27 (Jefferson, Q.), PENALTY MICH holding (Poggi, Henry) 10 yards to the UMD37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+2
2.0%
Drake Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 18
OPP 35
0
2.0%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 18
OPP 35
0
2.0%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jake Butt, broken up by Anthony NixonSimilar
Q4 14:24
4TH & 18
OPP 35
0
2.3%
Blake O'Neill punt for 30 yds, downed at the Mary 5Similar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
0.9%
Drake Johnson run for 4 yds to the Mich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
2.1%
Daxx Garman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
2.0%
Daxx Garman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+2
2.0%
Daxx Garman run for 2 yds to the Mary 7Similar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 8
OWN 7
0
2.0%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 32 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for no gain to the Mary 7 MARYLAND Penalty, kick catching interference (A.J. Hendy) to the Mary 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 29TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 2:5699% → 100%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
1.4%
Drake Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+20
1.4%
Drake Johnson run for 20 yds to the Mary 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
1.3%
Sione Houma run for 1 yd to the Mary 1Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Drake Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.2%
Brandon Ross run for 2 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
0.2%
Daxx Garman pass complete to D.J. Moore for 7 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
0.2%
Daxx Garman run for no gain to the Mary 34Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
0.2%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 31 yds, downed at the Mich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
0.2%
Ross Taylor-Douglas run for 1 yd to the Mich 36Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-5
0.2%
Ross Taylor-Douglas run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 31Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
0.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Drake Harris, broken up by William LikelySimilar
Q4 4:54
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+12
0.2%
Blake O'Neill punt for 45 yds , William Likely returns for 12 yds to the Mary 43 MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive holding (21 Yards) to the Mary 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 32PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
0.1%
Wes Brown run for 3 yds to the Mary 18Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
0.1%
Wes Brown run for no gain to the Mary 18Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
0.1%
Daxx Garman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
0.1%
Brad Craddock punt for 52 yds, downed at the Mich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 33END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
0.1%
Ross Taylor-Douglas run for 1 yd to the Mich 31Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 29Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 11
OWN 29
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:59
Jake Rudock pass complete to Drake Johnson for 31 yds for a TD, (Jake Rudock pass to Khalid Hill for Two-Point Conversion)
-10.7
TD · Q3 5:07
Jehu Chesson run for 66 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
-10
KEY PLAY · Q3 12:59
Brandon Ross run for 2 yds to the Mich 43
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com