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NEB

Nebraska 13 at Illinois 14

ILL
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:37 · Sam Foltz punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Home team on offense−4.8Pregame prior−11.9Garbage-time factor−1.6Score differential−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 2:55: Drew Brown 28 yd FG GOOD — NEB win probability +7.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:21: Wes Lunt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 22 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +20.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:51: Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo Allison — ILL win probability +8.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:10: Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 1 yd for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +71.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:10: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr. — NEB win probability +14.8 pts (now 27%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 9 of 13NEB made the numbers' call on 6 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00NEB 4th & 1 at NEB 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:20ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:13ILL 4th & 4 at NEB 33, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.1%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    34.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:13NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:56ILL 4th & 1 at NEB 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:44NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:00ILL 4th & 17 at NEB 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:35ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:29NEB 4th & 4 at NEB 18, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:28ILL 4th & 15 at ILL 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:37NEB 4th & 8 at NEB 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:19ILL 4th & 5 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:11NEB 4th & 12 at ILL 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−3.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 15:00ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.0%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:25ILL 4th & 28 at ILL 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−2.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:33NEB 4th & 7 at ILL 36, up 10
    Close callPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    74.4%−0.5
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 7:24ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 4, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:55NEB 4th & 5 at ILL 11, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−9.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:21NEB 4th & 4 at NEB 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−1.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:20ILL 4th & 19 at ILL 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−4.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 11:25NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 35, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−2.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  22. Q4 9:17ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 39, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.5 ptsPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%−5.5
    average punt
  23. Q4 7:55NEB 4th & 24 at midfield, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−4.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  24. Q4 4:56ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 20, down 6
    Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%−0.4
    average punt
  25. Q4 0:55NEB 4th & 7 at ILL 27, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.1%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    89.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NEB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:35NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 13:21ILL Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:10ILL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−15.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
31.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
31.4%
Terrell Newby run for 7 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+2
31.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
31.4%
Sam Foltz punt for 63 yds, downed at the Illin 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
32.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 6 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 4
OWN 12
0
32.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 4
OWN 12
0
32.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q1 13:20
4TH & 4
OWN 12
0
32.0%
Ryan Frain punt for 49 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for no gain to the Neb 39 De'Mornay Pierson-El fumbled, recovered by Illin Julian HyltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3MISSED FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3033% → 33%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
32.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo Allison, broken up by Maliek CollinsSimilar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
32.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the Neb 38Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+5
32.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 5 yds to the Neb 33Similar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+51
33.3%
Taylor Zalewski 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
32.9%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Neb 39Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+1
32.7%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the Neb 40Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
32.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
33.0%
Sam Foltz punt for 52 yds, downed at the Illin 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 79 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
33.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 4 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+3
33.6%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+48
33.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 48 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
34.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 9 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+9
34.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 9 yds to the Neb 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
34.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Neb 18Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
34.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+8
34.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 8 yds to the Neb 10Similar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 1
OPP 10
-3
33.9%
Chayce Crouch run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
35.2%
Andy Janovich run for 2 yds to the Neb 15Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+5
35.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Andy Janovich for 5 yds to the Neb 20Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 3
OWN 20
0
35.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 3
OWN 20
+28
35.8%
Sam Foltz punt for 51 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 28 yds to the Neb 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7MISSED FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 4:0737% → 38%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
37.2%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 45Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+2
36.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Neb 43Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+26
36.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 26 yds to the Neb 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
37.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Neb 14Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-8
37.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 8 yards to the Neb 22Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 15
OPP 22
-2
39.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 24Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 17
OPP 24
+41
38.3%
Taylor Zalewski 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:2563% → 69%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
37.5%
Alonzo Moore run for 11 yds to the Neb 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
37.2%
Andy Janovich run for 4 yds to the Neb 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
36.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+32
37.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 32 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
35.5%
NEBRASKA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 34
0
35.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+15
36.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (Dawuane Smoot) to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
30.9%
Devine Ozigbo run for 19 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
32.9%
Wes Lunt sacked by Maliek Collins for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 18Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+1
32.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 19Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+20
32.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 20 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
33.5%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
33.4%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
32.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+49
32.4%
Ryan Frain punt for 38 yds, downed at the ILLINOIS 23 NEBRASKA Penalty, illegal helmet contact (Aaron Williams) to the Neb 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
33.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+6
33.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 6 yds to the Neb 18Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
33.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 4
OWN 18
+12
33.8%
Sam Foltz punt for 63 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 12 yds to the Illin 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
33.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+7
33.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 7 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+13
33.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 13 yds to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
34.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Nathan Echard for no gain to the Neb 48Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-5
34.6%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 47Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
33.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik Turner, broken up by Jonathan RoseSimilar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 15
OWN 47
0
32.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
32.4%
Ryan Frain punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
31.7%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
31.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 5
OWN 28
-3
31.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 25Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
32.7%
Sam Foltz punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0032% → 33%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
32.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 8 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+2
34.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
33.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
34.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 5
50
0
34.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 5
50
0
33.0%
Ryan Frain punt for 29 yds, downed at the Neb 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:2768% → 75%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
31.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 20Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+5
31.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 5 yds to the Neb 25Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+55
29.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 55 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-11
26.7%
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds to the Illin 16 NEBRASKA Penalty, personal foul (Nick Gates) to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 21
OPP 31
0
26.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 21
OPP 31
+5
27.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 5 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 16
OPP 26
+4
28.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 4 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+39
25.4%
Drew Brown 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 48 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+48
26.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 48 yds to the Neb 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
26.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 10 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
26.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
27.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-2
27.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 42Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+2
25.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 2 yds to the Illin 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17INT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
24.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan Carter, broken up by Taylor BartonSimilar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
24.2%
Alonzo Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 46Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 12
OPP 46
-5
25.0%
NEBRASKA Penalty, false start (Nick Gates) to the Neb 49Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 17
OWN 49
+18
25.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted Clayton Fejedelem return for 18 yds to the Illin 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
25.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Sam Mays for 6 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+8
26.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 8 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
26.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-15
26.3%
Lunt,Wes pass incomplete to Mays,Sam, PENALTY ILL personal foul (Vaughn,Ke'Shawn) 15 yards to the ILL32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 25
OWN 32
0
24.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 25
OWN 32
-3
23.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 28
OWN 29
0
23.1%
Ryan Frain punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Jordan Westerkamp at the Neb 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
23.8%
Andy Janovich run for 7 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+8
23.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 8 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
23.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon Reilly, broken up by V'Angelo BentleySimilar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
23.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 3 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
24.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
25.0%
Sam Foltz punt for 35 yds, downed at the Illin 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
23.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Illin 1Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+2
23.4%
Wes Lunt run for 2 yds to the Illin 3Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+1
22.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 4Similar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 7
OWN 4
0
21.9%
Ryan Frain punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jordan Westerkamp at the Illin 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:3179% → 87%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
20.8%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+12
20.6%
Alonzo Moore run for 12 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
20.6%
Terrell Newby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 18Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+7
20.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 7 yds to the Illin 11Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
21.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Terrell NewbySimilar
Q3 2:55
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
13.4%
Drew Brown 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3418% → 40%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
18.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+17
18.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
50
+2
19.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
19.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Neb 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+11
17.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 11 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
18.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
18.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 7 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+8
19.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 8 yds to the Neb 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
39.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 22 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
27.2%
Devine Ozigbo run for 6 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
26.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan Westerkamp, broken up by V'Angelo BentleySimilar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
27.7%
Sam Foltz punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0034% → 30%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
33.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
33.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-9
31.4%
Wes Lunt sacked by Maliek Collins and Freedom Akinmoladun for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 27Similar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 19
OWN 27
+50
29.6%
David Reisner punt for 50 yds , Jordan Westerkamp returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
26.1%
Andy Janovich run for 4 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+9
25.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 9 yds to the Neb 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
24.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
25.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for no gain to the Neb 35Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
26.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan Westerkamp, broken up by Eric FinneySimilar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
27.9%
Sam Foltz punt for 35 yds, fair catch by V'Angelo Bentley at the Illin 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
30.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
29.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 8 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
31.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
30.3%
David Reisner punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+31
23.2%
Devine Ozigbo run for 31 yds to the Neb 48 Devine Ozigbo fumbled, forced by Caleb Day, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
20.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 16 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
19.5%
Andy Janovich run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 40Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+5
20.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 5 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-15
19.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Dawuane Smoot for a loss of 15 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 24
50
0
24.1%
Sam Foltz punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 22%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
25.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
24.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
23.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
21.8%
David Reisner punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Westerkamp at the Neb 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 29DOWNS
14 plays · 35 yds · 3:4384% → 94%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
15.9%
Andy Janovich run for 3 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
15.8%
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+6
16.2%
Andy Janovich run for 6 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
14.8%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the Illin 48Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+8
9.4%
Andy Janovich run for 8 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+10
9.0%
Andy Janovich run for 10 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
5.8%
Andy Janovich run for no gain to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
5.8%
Andy Janovich run for 3 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
6.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Devine OzigboSimilar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 7
OPP 27
0
5.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Andy JanovichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 30TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 0:4112% → 90%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
11.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Sam Mays for 15 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+50
13.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 50 yds to the Neb 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
21.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
21.7%
Lunt,Wes pass incomplete to Allison, G., PENALTY NEB pass interference (Turner, Jamal) 5 yards to the NEB2, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
22.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Nathan EchardSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
21.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q4 0:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
18.7%
Lunt,Wes pass incomplete to Allison, G., PENALTY NEB pass interference (Morgan Jr., S.) 1 yards to the NEB1, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 1 yd for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
72.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:10
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 1 yd for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)
+71.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+27.1
TD · Q4 13:21
Wes Lunt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 22 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)
+20.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com