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BALL

Ball State 19 at Northwestern 24

NU
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of GameFG-0.6NU 86.8%Morgan Hagee 30 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 9:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:06 · Morgan Hagee 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Pregame prior+35.9Home team on offense−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:20: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 66 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +6.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:56: Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 22 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +14.6 pts (now 32%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:05: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 21 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +6.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:06: Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 29 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee PAT BLOCKED) — BALL win probability +7.0 pts (now 17%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:34: Morgan Hagee 36 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +13.5 pts (now 27%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8BALL made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:06BALL 4th & 9 at NU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:06NU 4th & 1 at BALL 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    85.9%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:33BALL 4th & 6 at NU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:33NU 4th & 1 at NU 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:45BALL 4th & 12 at NU 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:45NU 4th & 2 at NU 31, down 3
    Close callPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:08BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:20BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 41, down 4
    Close callPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:05BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:01BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:51NU 4th & 1 at BALL 4, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    65% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.0%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    84.5%−4.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:43NU 4th & 8 at BALL 9, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−7.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:43BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 25, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:53NU 4th & 26 at NU 22, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−5.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:34BALL 4th & 9 at NU 44, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:46NU 4th & 4 at NU 8, up 8
    Close callPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:34BALL 4th & 10 at NU 19, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−2.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−7.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:08NU 4th & 13 at BALL 41, up 5
    Close callPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    91.1%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 6:20NU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:56BALL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:05NU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:01NU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:06BALL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    13.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.7%
Riley Neal run for 9 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
88.7%
Darian Green run for no gain to the BalSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
88.7%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
88.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
88.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Dylan Curry, broken up by Godwin IgwebuikeSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
88.7%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
88.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 6 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+5
88.3%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
88.3%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Jones, C., PENALTY NU holding (Mogus, Geoff) 10 yards to the NU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+6
88.3%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 14
OWN 29
0
88.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 14
OWN 29
+13
88.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 13 yds to the Nwest 49 Clayton Thorson fumbled, forced by Lamont McPhatter, recovered by BalSt Zack RyanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:3912% → 13%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
87.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Shillings for 5 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+14
87.6%
Darian Green run for 14 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
87.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 8 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+8
87.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Shillings for 8 yds to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
87.3%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the Nwest 13Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
87.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
87.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q1 9:06
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+30
86.8%
Morgan Hagee 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4DOWNS
12 plays · 36 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
86.8%
Warren Long run for 2 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
86.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+14
86.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 14 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
87.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 35Similar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+7
86.8%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+6
87.0%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
87.0%
Warren Long run for 3 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
87.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Miles ShulerSimilar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
87.1%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+4
87.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q1 9:06
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
87.0%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the BalSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:0915% → 16%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
85.2%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
85.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Nick VanHooseSimilar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-5
85.4%
BALL ST Penalty, delay of game (Riley Neal) to the BalSt 36Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+33
85.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 33 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
85.0%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
84.9%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
85.1%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+43
84.5%
Morgan Hagee 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
84.5%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
84.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 2 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+5
84.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
84.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:5816% → 19%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
83.6%
Darian Green run for 6 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+8
83.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 8 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
83.2%
Riley Neal run for 12 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
83.0%
Riley Neal run for 7 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+34
83.0%
James Gilbert run for 34 yds to the Nwest 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
81.4%
Riley Neal run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 4 Riley Neal fumbled, recovered by Nwest Traveon HenrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
82.7%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, substitution infraction (-2 Yards) to the Nwest 2Similar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 12
OWN 2
+6
82.7%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+5
82.7%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+2
82.4%
Warren Long run for 2 yds to the Nwest 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
82.7%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Tyree Holder return for no gain to the BalSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:2719% → 20%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
80.8%
Riley Neal run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 44Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+15
81.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 15 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
80.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
80.7%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+15
80.7%
Darian Green run for 15 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
80.3%
KeVonn Mabon run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+1
80.4%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the Nwest 22Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 12
OPP 22
0
80.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey Lacanaria BALL ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+40
79.8%
Morgan Hagee 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
80.0%
Solomon Vault run for 8 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 2
OWN 31
0
81.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for no gain to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
79.9%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
79.7%
Hunter Niswander punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1621% → 22%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
78.7%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
78.7%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
76.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
77.7%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 38 yds, downed at the Nwest 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:3377% → 84%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
76.7%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+66
83.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 66 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
82.9%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the BalSt 21Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
83.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Dylan Curry for 3 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+10
83.4%
NEAL, Riley pass complete to WILLIAMS, Jord. for 8 yards to the BALL32 (Harris, Matthew), PENALTY NU pass interference (Harris, Matthew) 10 yards to the BALL34, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
82.4%
Riley Neal run for 7 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
81.7%
Darian Green run for no gain to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
81.8%
Darian Green run for no gain to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
82.9%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 53 yds, downed at the Nwest 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:4882% → 83%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
81.8%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+5
81.7%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+4
81.9%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
82.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 3
OWN 24
-4
82.6%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 22 Clayton Thorson fumbled, recovered by BalSt Kevin WillisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15TD
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
68.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 22 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.8%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
73.1%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:5572% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
72.0%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+10
72.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Miles Shuler for 10 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
72.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 20 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
75.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Miles Shuler for 5 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+8
75.0%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
75.8%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+10
75.8%
Jelani Roberts run for 10 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
82.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 21 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
78.9%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+3
78.6%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
79.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
79.9%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 47 yds, downed at the Nwest 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:4581% → 89%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan Vitale, broken up by John Whitman IIISimilar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
80.8%
Solomon Vault run for 8 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+21
80.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Mike McHugh for 21 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
82.6%
Warren Long run for 6 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+3
83.0%
Warren Long run for 3 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+14
82.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Warren Long for 14 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
83.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Warren Long, broken up by Julian JacksonSimilar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
83.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 3 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+25
89.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 25 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.9%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the BalSt 26Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
87.9%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to MABON, KeVonn (Smith, Drew), PENALTY NU illegal use of hands (Thompson, J.) 15 yards to the BALL41, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
87.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Dylan CurrySimilar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
87.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 4 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
87.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q3 8:01
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
88.2%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21FG
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:3489% → 92%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+62
88.7%
Justin Jackson run for 62 yds to the BalSt 13 Justin Jackson fumbled, forced by Tyree Holder, recovered by Nwest for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
89.5%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 9Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
89.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan Vitale, broken up by Ben IngleSimilar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+5
88.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 5 yds to the BalSt 4Similar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+21
91.8%
Jack Mitchell 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:459% → 17%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.8%
Darian Green run for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
90.0%
Riley Neal run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+19
90.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 19 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
89.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Dean LowrySimilar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
89.6%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the BalSt 49Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+22
89.7%
Riley Neal run for 22 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
82.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 29 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23MISSED FG
17 plays · 65 yds · 5:2388% → 89%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
88.1%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
88.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Miles ShulerSimilar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+11
87.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 11 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
89.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Mike McHughSimilar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
88.9%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+7
88.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 7 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
89.7%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+6
89.8%
Solomon Vault run for 6 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+6
89.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 6 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
90.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 6 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
90.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Mike McHughSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+17
89.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 17 yds to the BalSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
90.1%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
90.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 7
-2
89.4%
Warren Long run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 9Similar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
89.1%
Jack Mitchell 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
87.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 5 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
87.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
88.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 48 yds, downed at the Nwest 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 0:0089% → 87%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
89.2%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+9
89.0%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
90.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
90.0%
Warren Long run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 9
OWN 39
-5
89.3%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 14
OWN 34
-7
88.1%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Anthony Winbush and Osazuwamen Igbinosun for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 21
OWN 27
-5
87.4%
Nisawnder, H. punt 34 yards to the BALL39, fair catch by LACANARIA, C., PENALTY NU illegal procedure (Shuler, Miles) 5 yards to the NU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 26
OWN 22
0
87.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0014% → 12%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
86.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 6 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+6
85.0%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
84.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Matthew HarrisSimilar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
85.1%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
86.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Matthew HarrisSimilar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
87.7%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 42 yds, downed at the Nwest 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
90.3%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 4Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+4
90.1%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 4
OWN 8
0
89.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:46
4TH & 4
OWN 8
0
88.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 32 yds, downed at the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 28FG
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:4914% → 27%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
85.7%
Darian Green run for 21 yds to the Nwest 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
83.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
84.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
86.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
72.9%
Morgan Hagee 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 29PUNT
17 plays · 34 yds · 3:2686% → 94%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
86.2%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
87.3%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+9
85.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 9 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+3
87.3%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
88.5%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+3
90.8%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+14
91.8%
Solomon Vault run for 14 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
92.9%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 40Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+6
94.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 6 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 6
OPP 34
-2
95.6%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 36Similar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 8
OPP 36
-5
94.5%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 41Similar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
94.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 32 yds, downed at the BalSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · 13 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
92.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 11 yds Jordan Williams fumbled, recovered by BalSt Corey Lacanaria for a 1ST down , return for 2 yds to the BalSt 22 Corey Lacanaria fumbled, recovered by BalSt Darian Green for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, illegal forward pass ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:56
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 22 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-14.6
FG · Q4 4:34
Morgan Hagee 36 yd FG GOOD
-13.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com