Try the model
USM

Southern Miss 28 at Nebraska 36

NEB
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:38 · Jalen Richard run for no gain to the Neb 7 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Pregame prior+20.7Home team on offense+13.8Score differential+5.5Garbage-time factor+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.9Time remaining+2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:19: Ito Smith run for 17 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +4.9 pts (now 8%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:34: Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 21 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +4.5 pts (now 6%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:26: Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 19 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +7.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:30: Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 16 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) NEBRASKA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Neb 35 — NEB win probability +4.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:55: Jalen Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +7.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 9USM made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 10 at USM 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:24NEB 4th & 3 at USM 12, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:51USM 4th & 16 at NEB 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00NEB 4th & 1 at USM 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.1%−0.5
    79% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:49NEB 4th & 4 at USM 10, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.7%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    88.5%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:49USM 4th & 22 at USM 37, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:31NEB 4th & 17 at USM 23, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    90.2%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:26USM 4th & 6 at USM 19, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:34NEB 4th & 5 at USM 5, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    92.3%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:34USM 4th & 6 at USM 29, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00NEB 4th & 3 at USM 33, up 19
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%−0.6
    49% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:39NEB 4th & 6 at USM 34, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:46USM 4th & 13 at NEB 27, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:38USM 4th & 1 at NEB 7, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−1.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−4.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:26USM 4th & 4 at NEB 19, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−3.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:26NEB 4th & 11 at NEB 24, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−2.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:24USM 4th & 3 at USM 39, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.0%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:29NEB 4th & 8 at USM 8, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    90.2%−4.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 9:57NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:19USM Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:27NEB Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:34USM Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:26USM Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:30NEB Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:55USM Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.2%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
93.8%
Jalen Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
93.8%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
93.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Jalen RichardSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
93.8%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 46 yds, downed at the Neb 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:3594% → 93%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
93.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 15 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
93.5%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+8
93.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 8 yds Jordan Westerkamp fumbled, forced by Elijah Parker, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
93.5%
Terrell Newby run for 13 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
93.5%
Terrell Newby run for 17 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
93.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 11 yds to the SoMis 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
93.5%
Terrell Newby run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 6Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
93.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 6 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 33 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
93.0%
RICHARD, Jalen rush up middle for 4 yards to the USM32, PENALTY NEB offside defense (Collins, Maliek) 5 yards to the USM33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 5
OWN 33
0
92.9%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+25
93.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 25 yds to the Neb 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
92.9%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the Neb 40 Jalen Richard fumbled, forced by Greg McMullen, recovered by Neb Kevin Williams , return for 1 yd to the Neb 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 4:0393% → 93%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
93.0%
Brandon Reilly run for 2 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+28
93.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 28 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
93.1%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+6
93.1%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
93.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 18Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+4
93.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 4 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+2
93.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 2 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
92.5%
Drew Brown 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:288% → 8%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
92.1%
Jalen Richard run for 9 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 1
OWN 37
0
92.0%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-10
92.0%
MULLENS, Nick pass complete to MARTIN, Casey for 8 yards to the USM45 (Gerry, Nate), PENALTY USM holding (PETERSON, A.) 10 yards to the USM27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+17
92.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 17 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+50
92.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 50 yds to the Neb 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
91.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q1 4:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
91.7%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the Neb 6Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
91.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the Neb 16 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SoMis Nick MullensSimilar
Q1 0:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+33
91.9%
Parker Shaunfield 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 5:0292% → 93%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
91.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 22 yds to the Neb 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
92.1%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+25
92.0%
Andy Janovich run for 25 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
92.1%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+4
92.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+3
91.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 3 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+2
91.7%
Imani Cross run for 2 yds to the SoMis 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
92.1%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the SoMis 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
92.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+6
91.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 6 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
93.4%
Drew Brown 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.6%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
92.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for no gain to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+20
92.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 20 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
92.2%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the Neb 49Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-5
92.2%
Casey Martin sacked by Chris Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 13
OWN 46
-9
92.6%
Nick Mullens sacked by Freedom Akinmoladun for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 37 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 22
OWN 37
0
92.8%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8FG
5 plays · 46 yds · 2:2293% → 94%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+53
93.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Andy Janovich for 53 yds to the SoMis 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
93.4%
Devine Ozigbo run for 2 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+3
93.4%
Jamal Turner run for 3 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 5
OPP 11
-12
93.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Xavier Thigpen for a loss of 12 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 17
OPP 23
+40
93.9%
Drew Brown 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
93.2%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-8
93.3%
Nick Mullens sacked by Joshua Kalu for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 7Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 18
OWN 7
+12
93.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 12 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 6
OWN 19
+17
93.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 46 yds , Jordan Westerkamp returns for 17 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:5795% → 96%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
94.6%
Newby, Terrell rush over right end for no gain to the USM48, PENALTY NEB holding 10 yards to the NEB42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+49
94.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 49 yds to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
94.6%
NEBRASKA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+9
94.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 9 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.6%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the SoMis 5Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q2 1:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
95.9%
Drew Brown 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Dedrick YoungSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
94.9%
MULLENS, Nick pass complete to MARTIN, Casey for 17 yards to the USM42 (Rose, Jonathan), PENALTY USM illegal formation 5 yards to the USM20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+9
94.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 9 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
94.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+53
95.0%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 38 yds, downed at the NEBRASKA 33 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12FG
11 plays · 19 yds · 0:3497% → 98%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-15
96.9%
Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Morgan Jr., S., PENALTY NEB pass interference (Morgan Jr., S.) 15 yards to the NEB33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 25
OWN 33
+27
96.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 27 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
96.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
96.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+7
96.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 7 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+50
97.5%
Drew Brown 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13INT
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
97.6%
Imani Cross run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 28Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+45
97.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted D'Nerius Antoine return for 30 yds to the NEBRASKA 42 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Picasso Nelson Jr.) to the Neb 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:483% → 8%
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
96.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 8 yds to the Neb 17Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+17
91.6%
Ito Smith run for 17 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:3594% → 94%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
93.7%
Imani Cross run for 1 yd to the Neb 14Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+13
93.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Sam Cotton for 13 yds to the Neb 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
93.7%
Alonzo Moore run for 9 yds to the Neb 36Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+26
93.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 26 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
94.0%
Andy Janovich run for 4 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
94.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
93.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+51
93.6%
Drew Brown 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16MISSED FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 3:537% → 6%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
92.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+28
92.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 28 yds to the Neb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
92.2%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Neb 35Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+4
91.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 4 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-5
92.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 36Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+12
92.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 12 yds to the Neb 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
91.6%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Neb 21Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+5
91.6%
NEBRASKA Penalty, offside defense (Freedom Akinmoladun) to the Neb 16Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 2
OPP 16
-10
91.6%
MULLENS, Nick pass incomplete to SMITH, Ito, PENALTY USM holding (BATES, Oliver) 10 yards to the NEB26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 12
OPP 26
-1
91.9%
Jalen Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 27Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 13
OPP 27
0
92.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Jalen RichardSimilar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+44
93.6%
Parker Shaunfield 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
94.3%
Imani Cross run for 8 yds to the Neb 35 Imani Cross fumbled, forced by D'Nerius Antoine, recovered by SoMis D'Nerius AntoineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
92.2%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+15
92.0%
MULLENS, Nick pass incomplete to THOMPSON, D.J., PENALTY NEB pass interference (Jones, Chris) 15 yards to the NEB16, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
92.0%
Jalen Richard run for 6 yds to the Neb 10Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
92.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Daythan DavisSimilar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+3
92.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 3 yds to the Neb 7Similar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 1
OPP 7
0
92.7%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the Neb 7 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19TD
12 plays · 93 yds · 4:0495% → 99%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
95.3%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Neb 13Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 4
OWN 13
-5
95.4%
NEBRASKA Penalty, false start (Alex Lewis) to the Neb 8Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 9
OWN 8
0
95.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+14
95.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 14 yds to the Neb 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
95.4%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+3
95.5%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+28
95.4%
Andy Janovich run for 28 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
95.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 20 yds to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
95.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
95.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+11
95.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 11 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Taariq Allen for 10 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 1:471% → 6%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
98.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Daythan Davis for 6 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+8
98.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Daythan Davis for 8 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+53
98.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 53 yds to the Neb 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
98.6%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the Neb 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
98.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 11
-10
98.8%
MULLENS, Nick pass complete to MARTIN, Casey for 9 yards to the NEB2 (Kalu, Joshua), PENALTY USM holding (BATES, Oliver) 10 yards to the NEB21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 20
OPP 21
+21
94.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 21 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 1:066% → 12%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+28
94.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 28 yds to the Neb 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
93.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
93.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 6 yds to the Neb 19Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
93.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey Martin, broken up by Chris WeberSimilar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+19
88.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 19 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
91.7%
Terrell Newby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 24Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
91.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Terrell Newby, broken up by Xavier ThigpenSimilar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
91.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
90.6%
Sam Foltz punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Casey Martin at the SoMis 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
88.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
88.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 7 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
87.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
89.3%
Tyler Sarrazin pass incomplete SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24TD
4 plays · 39 yds · 1:1593% → 97%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
93.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 17 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
93.3%
Terrell Newby run for 7 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 3
OPP 15
-1
93.3%
Andy Janovich run for 9 yds to the SoMis 6 NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive holding (Alonzo Moore) to the SoMis 16Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+16
97.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 16 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) NEBRASKA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Neb 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:354% → 11%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
96.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 39 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
96.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+25
96.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 25 yds to the Neb 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
95.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 16Similar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 15
OPP 16
-5
96.1%
MULLENS, Nick pass complete to MARTIN, Casey for 16 yards to the NEB0, clock 08:15, PENALTY USM illegal motion (MARTIN, Casey) 5 yards to the NEB21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 20
OPP 21
+1
96.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 1 yd to the Neb 20Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 19
OPP 20
0
96.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 19
OPP 20
+6
96.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 6 yds to the Neb 14Similar
Q4 7:06
4TH & 13
OPP 0
+1
96.6%
MULLENS, Nick pass intercepted by Kalu, Joshua at the NEB0, Kalu, Joshua return to the NEB0, PENALTY NEB pass interference (Kalu, Joshua) 12 yards to the NEB2, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY, PENALTY NEB unsportsmanlike conduct (Kalu, Joshua) 1 yards to the NEB1, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.0%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26MISSED FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 6:2394% → 97%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
93.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 17 yds to the Neb 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
94.1%
Andy Janovich run for 2 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-1
94.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 47Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-10
93.5%
Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Turner, Jamal for 20 yards to the USM33, PENALTY NEB holding (Gates, Nick) 10 yards to the NEB37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 19
OWN 37
+41
93.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 41 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
94.6%
Terrell Newby run for 4 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+10
94.6%
Brandon Reilly run for 10 yds to the SoMis 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
96.9%
Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Westerkamp, J. for 8 yards to the USM0, clock 02:57, PENALTY NEB illegal shift 5 yards to the USM13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+1
96.8%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the SoMis 12Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
96.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 4 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.6%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the SoMis 8Similar
Q4 0:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+29
97.0%
Drew Brown 29 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Elijah ParkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:005% → 8%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
94.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 19 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
93.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 21 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
91.8%
Nick Mullens sacked by Freedom Akinmoladun for a loss of 8 yards to the Neb 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+8.2
TD · Q4 6:55
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-7.6
TD · Q4 12:26
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 19 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com