2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreCMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:24 · Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 4 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:13: Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 5 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:08: Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +2.8 pts (now 9%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:24: Brian Eavey 42 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +2.5 pts (now 12%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 2:22: Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 9 yds to the MchSt 46 — MSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:37: Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 11:46CMU 4th & 8 at MSU 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.9%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call4.9%60% to makePunt4.6%−0.3average punt
- Q1 0:29CMU 4th & 6 at MSU 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.7% before the snapGo for it6.7%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call6.7%64% to makePunt6.0%−0.7average punt
- Q2 11:20MSU 4th & 3 at CMU 30, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snapGo for it92.8%52% to convertField goalTheir call92.6%−0.256% to makePunt92.3%−0.5average punt
- Q2 9:02CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 34, down 10Close callPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it7.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.0%−0.3average punt
- Q3 11:12MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 42, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snapGo for it90.3%−1.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.5%average punt
- Q3 6:24CMU 4th & 19 at MSU 25, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.7% before the snapGo for it7.8%−1.211% to convertField goalTheir call9.0%66% to makePunt5.4%−3.7average punt
- Q3 4:45MSU 4th & 26 at MSU 9, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snapGo for it85.3%−2.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.1%average punt
- Q3 2:28CMU 4th & 2 at MSU 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.7%57% to convertField goal12.6%−2.140% to makePunt12.4%−2.4average punt
- Q3 0:03MSU 4th & 6 at CMU 38, up 7Close callPunted · 90.6% before the snapGo for it91.0%40% to convertField goal90.1%−0.838% to makePuntTheir call90.1%−0.9average punt
- Q4 2:24CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 42, down 20Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.6%average punt
- Q4 1:23CMU 4th & 15 at CMU 41, down 20Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 8:56MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%97% to makeGo for two94.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:13MSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%97% to makeGo for two94.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:08CMU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.5%97% to makeGo for two7.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:37MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%−0.297% to makeGo for two95.4%45% to convert
- Q4 3:21MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · missedKickTheir call99.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCMUDrive 1MISSED FG9 plays · 49 yds · 2:594% → 5%
Q1 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+42
95.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 42 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
95.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 4 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 3
OPP 23
-5
95.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, False Start (Derek Edwards) to the MchSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD6 plays · 72 yds · 2:3495% → 95%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+42
95.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 42 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3MISSED FG18 plays · 54 yds · 8:125% → 7%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
95.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 7 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
95.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 5 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+12
94.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 12 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
94.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for no gain to the CMich 42Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+16
94.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 16 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+12
94.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 12 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
93.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Martez Walker for 1 yd to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+10
93.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 10 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q1 0:38
4TH & 1
OPP 21
-5
93.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, False Start (Ramadan Ahmeti) to the MchSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4FG11 plays · 44 yds · 4:0394% → 93%
Q2 14:52
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+10
93.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
93.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 7 yds Aaron Burbridge fumbled, forced by Amari Coleman, recovered by MchStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:037% → 7%
MSUDrive 6TD7 plays · 52 yds · 3:4293% → 96%
CMUDrive 7TD18 plays · 80 yds · 5:005% → 9%
Q2 4:21
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+16
95.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 16 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+14
95.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 14 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+27
94.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 27 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
94.0%
Cooper Rush sacked by Shilique Calhoun and Damon Knox for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+9
94.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jermaine Edmondson) to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
93.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jermaine Edmondson) to the MchSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT11 plays · 17 yds · 3:4392% → 91%
CMUDrive 10FG9 plays · 63 yds · 4:398% → 12%
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+13
90.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 13 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+17
89.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 17 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-23
89.1%
Cooper Rush sacked by Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 24 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ramadan Ahmeti) to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 33
OPP 39
+14
90.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 14 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT7 plays · -16 yds · 1:3590% → 88%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
89.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josiah Price) to the MchSt 15Similar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+4
89.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 4 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-10
89.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-10 Yards) to the MchSt 9Similar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 26
OWN 9
-2
87.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 44 yds , Emmitt Thomas returns for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12DOWNS7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1314% → 15%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
86.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Demetrius Cooper) to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
85.2%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joe Bacci) to the CMich 45Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 20
OWN 45
-5
86.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, False Start (Ramadan Ahmeti) to the CMich 40Similar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 25
OWN 40
+23
87.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 23 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 2:1990% → 91%
CMUDrive 14PUNT11 plays · 3 yds · 3:1713% → 11%
Q4 13:49
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+8
87.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 8 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
86.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 3 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-10
86.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ramadan Ahmeti) to the CMich 28Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 25
OWN 23
-11
88.7%
Cooper Rush sacked by Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 11 yards to the CMich 12Similar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 36
OWN 12
+49
89.1%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 46 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the MchSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD6 plays · 61 yds · 2:5591% → 97%
Q4 10:59
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+26
91.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 26 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+10
91.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 10 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
91.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 17 yds to the CMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16FUMBLE2 plays · 24 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+39
94.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 24 yds Jesse Kroll fumbled, recovered by MchSt Riley Bullough MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the MchSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17TD8 plays · 58 yds · 4:3997% → 100%
CMUDrive 18DOWNS11 plays · 3 yds · 1:471% → 0%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jahray Hayes for 4 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+2
99.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Martez Walker for 2 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+4
99.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 4 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 15
OWN 41
-2
99.6%
Cooper Rush sacked by Demetrius Cooper for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:37
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
+5.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:22
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 9 yds to the MchSt 46
+4.4
TD · Q2 5:13
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 5 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
+2.9