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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 25 at Illinois 27

ILL
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGSAFETYTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:44 · Ryan Frain punt for 37 yds , Ed'Marques Batties returns for 4 yds to the MTnSt 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Pregame prior+3.7Home team on offense+10.6Garbage-time factor+5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Score differential+0.9Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:05: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 63 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 2:14: Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 8 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +12.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:44: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 13 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +19.6 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 4:11: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 22 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MTSU win probability +25.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:09: Taylor Zalewski 51 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +21.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 9 of 11MTSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 12:55MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:49ILL 4th & 18 at MTSU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:44ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00MTSU 4th & 24 at MTSU 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−1.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:27ILL 4th & 7 at MTSU 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:07MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:07MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 47, down 11
    Close callPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:05ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 34, up 2
    Close callPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:11ILL 4th & 4 at MTSU 5, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    62.6%−5.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 32, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:51ILL 4th & 1 at MTSU 46, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%−4.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:51ILL 4th & 21 at MTSU 37, up 5
    Close callPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−2.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:39MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 12, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:29ILL 4th & 2 at MTSU 4, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    71.3%−2.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−13.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:24MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 7, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:14MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 32, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 49, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:44MTSU 4th & 4 at ILL 24, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−5.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:44ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 48, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:09ILL 4th & 6 at MTSU 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−7.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−14.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:09MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 25, down 2
    Close callWent for it · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.9%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.6%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:56MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 48, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.0%−9.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:04MTSU 4th & 7 at ILL 26, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−31.9
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−40.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:55ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:05MTSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:14ILL Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:44MTSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:11MTSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    55.9%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    56.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0569% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
68.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 8 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
68.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+42
68.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 42 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
68.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 18 yds to the MTnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
68.9%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
68.9%
Lunt,Wes pass incomplete to Allison, G., PENALTY MT illegal use of hands (BAILEY, Peter) 2 yards to the MT2, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
68.9%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
69.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 5 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
69.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 18
OWN 17
+7
69.3%
Jordan Parker run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
69.3%
Desmond Anderson run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
69.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 4 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+8
69.3%
Trevor Owens punt for 46 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 8 yds to the Illin 40 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Illin 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 33 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
69.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 7 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-2
69.8%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+10
69.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 10 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
69.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
69.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 30Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+19
69.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 19 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
70.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 7 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
70.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
70.0%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
70.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 1 yd to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
70.1%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 9
OPP 38
-9
70.0%
Wes Lunt sacked by Trey Wafford for a loss of 9 yards to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 18
OPP 47
0
69.6%
Ryan Frain punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 4:2530% → 32%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
70.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 7 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
70.2%
Jordan Parker run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
70.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 4 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
70.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-5
70.4%
STOCKSTILL, B. pass complete to PARKER, Jordan for 5 yards to the MT41 (Bentley, V.), PENALTY MT illegal formation 5 yards to the MT31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+41
70.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 41 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
69.2%
Jordan Parker run for 4 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+2
69.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 2 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+9
69.6%
Jordan Parker run for 9 yds to the Illin 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
69.2%
Jordan Parker run for 6 yds to the Illin 7Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+5
69.2%
Jordan Parker run for 5 yds to the Illin 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-14
69.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the Illin 16Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
0
69.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q1 6:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
-9
70.2%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Dawuane Smoot and Chunky Clements for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 1:44
4TH & 0
OPP 25
+42
68.0%
Cody Clark 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
68.3%
Josh Ferguson run for 12 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
68.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 3 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
68.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik Turner, broken up by D.J. SandersSimilar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
67.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q1 1:44
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
67.5%
Ryan Frain punt for 34 yds, downed at the MTnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 0:1633% → 31%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
67.4%
Desmond Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 37
-11
68.3%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Dawuane Smoot and Jihad Ward for a loss of 11 yards to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 26
0
68.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Jordan Parker for no gain to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 24
OWN 26
0
69.3%
Trevor Owens punt for 38 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for no gain to the Illin 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7MISSED FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:1569% → 68%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
68.6%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+11
69.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
50
+6
69.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+10
69.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 10 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
69.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+11
69.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 11 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
69.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 2 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+1
69.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
69.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Dionte TaylorSimilar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
68.3%
Taylor Zalewski 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT TD
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2032% → 24%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
68.0%
Jordan Parker run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 2
OWN 29
-5
67.1%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+1
68.0%
Jordan Parker run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
68.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ed'Marques Batties, broken up by Mason MonheimSimilar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
76.1%
TEAM punt blocked by blocked by Clayton Fejedelem return for no gain for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
75.2%
Jordan Parker run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+5
75.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Rod Ducksworth for 5 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+3
75.1%
Jordan Parker run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
74.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for no gain to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
75.2%
STOCKSTILL, B. pass incomplete to FRAZIER, D., PENALTY ILL offside defense (Ward,Jihad) 5 yards to the MT35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+5
74.5%
Jordan Parker run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
74.3%
Jordan Parker run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+6
74.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Demetrius Frazier for 6 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+2
74.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 2 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
75.1%
Trevor Owens punt for 52 yds, downed at the Illin 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
75.1%
Wes Lunt run for a loss of 1 yard, Wes Lunt fumbled, recovered by TEAM for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:4425% → 34%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
74.7%
Jordan Parker run for no gain to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+63
66.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 63 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
67.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 7 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 3
OWN 34
0
69.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
67.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Marchie Murdock, broken up by Raynard FeltonSimilar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
66.8%
Ryan Frain punt for 37 yds, downed at the MTnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
66.4%
Jordan Parker run for no gain to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+24
66.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 9 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (Joe Fotu) to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
64.0%
Jordan Parker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 49Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+17
64.9%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Dawuane Smoot for a loss of 11 yards to the MTnSt 11 Brent Stockstill fumbled, recovered by Illin Jihad Ward , return for 0 yards , return for 17 yds to the MTnSt 11 Jihad Ward fumbled, forced by Terry Pettis, recovered by Illin Chunky Clements , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0971% → 72%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
70.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
70.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+1
69.6%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
72.2%
Taylor Zalewski 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
69.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.5%
Jordan Parker run for no gain to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
69.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
69.5%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+9
70.5%
Trevor Owens punt for 43 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 9 yds to the Illin 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
14 plays · 29 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
72.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
72.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo Allison, broken up by Xavier WalkerSimilar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+11
71.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 11 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
73.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for no gain to the Illin 45Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
73.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+9
71.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 9 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+4
72.5%
Chayce Crouch run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
74.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik Turner, broken up by T.T. BarberSimilar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
74.2%
Josh Ferguson run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+8
73.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 8 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
74.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 5 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+1
74.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 4
OPP 20
-17
74.0%
Wes Lunt sacked by T.T. Barber for a loss of 17 yards to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 21
OPP 37
0
70.5%
Ryan Frain punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ed'Marques Batties at the MTnSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
70.4%
Jordan Parker run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+6
70.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 6 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 5
OWN 12
0
71.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ed'Marques Batties, broken up by Clayton FejedelemSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 5
OWN 12
+5
72.1%
Trevor Owens punt for 36 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 5 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:5375% → 74%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
74.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 3 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+5
74.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+6
74.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
75.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (Alexandro Antoine) to the MTnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
75.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+3
75.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+3
74.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 3 yds to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 2
OPP 4
0
73.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Marchie Murdock, broken up by Jeremy CutrerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
69.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Demetrius Frazier, broken up by Clayton FejedelemSimilar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+3
70.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Demetrius Frazier for 3 yds to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 7
OWN 7
0
71.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ed'Marques BattiesSimilar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 7
OWN 7
-6
72.0%
Trevor Owens punt for 36 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:1176% → 89%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
75.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 5 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (Quay Watt) to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
76.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 3 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+4
76.2%
Josh Ferguson run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+3
75.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
76.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 9 yds to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+2
76.2%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
89.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 8 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
84.4%
Jeremiah Bryson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
84.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ed'Marques BattiesSimilar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
85.3%
Trevor Owens punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:0688% → 88%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
88.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 3 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+24
88.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 24 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
89.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
89.3%
Henry Enyenihi run for 2 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
89.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 49
+19
88.4%
Ryan Frain punt for 42 yds , Ed'Marques Batties returns for 19 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:0014% → 38%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+42
85.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 42 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
82.4%
Jeremiah Bryson run for 7 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 3
OPP 23
-1
82.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 24Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
83.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Rod Ducksworth, broken up by Eric FinneySimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+5
84.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 5 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
82.1%
Jeremiah Bryson run for 3 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+3
82.1%
Jeremiah Bryson run for 3 yds to the Illin 13Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+13
62.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 13 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
77.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 11 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
77.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
77.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+5
76.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
77.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 8 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+2
80.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
80.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
80.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
78.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 6
OWN 48
+4
77.0%
Ryan Frain punt for 37 yds , Ed'Marques Batties returns for 4 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 4:4431% → 67%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
69.0%
Brent Stockstill run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+7
65.7%
Jordan Parker run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
67.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 11 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
63.6%
Jordan Parker run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+13
62.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 13 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
62.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 16 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
59.3%
Jordan Parker run for 2 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-2
59.3%
Brent Stockstill run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 22Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+22
33.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 22 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:0248% → 76%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
48.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 6 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+2
51.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 2 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+3
49.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 3 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+26
51.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 26 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
55.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+1
57.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 1 yd to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
54.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+51
76.2%
Taylor Zalewski 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 28MISSED FG
19 plays · 49 yds · 2:0533% → 19%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
67.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie James, broken up by Clayton FejedelemSimilar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
68.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ed'Marques BattiesSimilar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+16
70.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 16 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
61.9%
Jordan Parker run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
60.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 2 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
60.0%
Brent Stockstill run for no gain to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+6
69.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 6 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
64.0%
Jordan Parker run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+20
70.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 20 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
60.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
61.6%
Jordan Parker run for 3 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
65.5%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ed'Marques BattiesSimilar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+43
81.1%
Cody Clark 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
94.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:11
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 22 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-25.9
FG · Q4 2:09
Taylor Zalewski 51 yd FG GOOD
+21.5
TD · Q4 11:44
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 13 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)
-19.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com