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TROY

Troy 3 at Wisconsin 28

WIS
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Ryan Kay punt for 45 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Pregame prior+42.2Home team on offense+0.2Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 1:13: Ryan Kay 32 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +1.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 8:19: Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the Troy 24 — TROY win probability +1.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 3:17: Joel Stave pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 20 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST down — TROY win probability +1.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:39: Joel Stave run for 4 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +2.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:16: Tanner McEvoy run for 32 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +3.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00WIS 4th & 16 at WIS 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:07TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:13TROY 4th & 6 at WIS 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:08WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 28, up 4
    Close callPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TROY 4th & 2 at WIS 45, down 4
    Close callPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:12WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:12WIS 4th & 2 at TROY 48, up 4
    Close callPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:32TROY 4th & 18 at WIS 38, down 4
    Close callPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:09TROY 4th & 17 at TROY 17, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:21WIS 4th & 3 at TROY 34, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    97.3%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:09TROY 4th & 9 at WIS 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:09WIS 4th & 8 at TROY 44, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:56TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 23, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:55TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:14TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 28, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:22WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 37, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:49WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:39WIS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:16WIS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:07WIS Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
97.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
97.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+9
97.9%
Taiwan Deal run for 9 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
97.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+1
97.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the Wisc 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-11
97.9%
Team run for a loss of 11 yards to the Wisc 37 Team fumbled, recovered by Wisc Joel StaveSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 37
0
97.9%
Drew Meyer punt for 46 yds , Teddy Ruben returns for no gain to the Troy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
97.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 4 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-2
97.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 19Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
97.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
97.4%
Ryan Kay punt for 49 yds , Alex Erickson returns for no gain to the Wisc 19 Alex Erickson fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 2:5597% → 97%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+30
97.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 30 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
97.2%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 7 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+13
97.2%
Taiwan Deal run for 13 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
97.2%
Taiwan Deal run for 8 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+6
97.2%
Taiwan Deal run for 6 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
97.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 17 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4FG
16 plays · 65 yds · 5:313% → 4%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
97.0%
Silvers, B. pass incomplete to Johnson, John, PENALTY WIS pass interference (Hillary, Darius) 8 yards to the TROY28, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
97.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 5 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+4
97.0%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
96.9%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
96.9%
Silvers, B. pass incomplete to Farmer, L., PENALTY WIS personal foul (Jacobs, Leon) 15 yards to the WIS46, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
96.9%
Brandon Burks run for 6 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
96.9%
Ismail Saleem run for 3 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+5
96.9%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
96.8%
Brandon Silvers run for 9 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+4
96.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 4 yds to the Wisc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
96.8%
Andre Flakes run for 7 yds to the Wisc 12Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+2
96.8%
Andre Flakes run for 2 yds to the Wisc 10Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 1
OPP 10
-5
96.9%
TROY Penalty, false start (Dalton Bennett) to the Wisc 15Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
96.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Andre FlakesSimilar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+32
95.6%
Ryan Kay 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
95.7%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex Erickson, broken up by LaMarcus FarmerSimilar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
95.7%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 6 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
95.6%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex Erickson, broken up by Demetrius CainSimilar
Q1 1:08
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
95.5%
Drew Meyer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:145% → 5%
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
95.4%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
95.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+9
95.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 9 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
95.2%
Brandon Silvers run for no gain to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
95.2%
WISCONSIN Penalty, offside defense (Vince Biegel) to the Wisc 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
95.1%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
95.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Brandon Burks, broken up by Chris OrrSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
95.3%
Ryan Kay punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
95.0%
Taiwan Deal run for 9 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
95.1%
Taiwan Deal run for 4 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
95.0%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Robert WheelwrightSimilar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
95.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 3 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+6
94.9%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 6 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
94.9%
Taiwan Deal run for 2 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
95.2%
Taiwan Deal run for 8 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 2
OPP 48
-1
95.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+1
95.2%
Taiwan Deal run for 1 yd to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
95.0%
Drew Meyer punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8PUNT
14 plays · 42 yds · 0:477% → 7%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
93.5%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
93.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Ismail Saleem for 8 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
93.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Ismail Saleem for 9 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
92.7%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+6
92.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 6 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
92.6%
Brandon Burks run for 11 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
92.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
92.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Nick McLaughlin for 12 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
92.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jarvis Bentley, broken up by Sojourn SheltonSimilar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-15
92.3%
Silvers, B. pass incomplete to Ruben, Teddy, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Quisenberry, C.) 15 yards to the WIS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 25
OPP 45
+6
92.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 6 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 19
OPP 39
+1
93.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 1 yd to the Wisc 38Similar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 18
OPP 38
0
93.4%
Ryan Kay punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the Wisc 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 2:3892% → 95%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+20
92.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 20 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
92.3%
Stave, Joel pass complete to Traylor, Austin for 6 yards to the WIS36 (Kitchens, M.), PENALTY WIS personal foul (Marz, Tyler) 15 yards to the WIS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 25
OWN 15
+21
92.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 21 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+45
92.9%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 45 yds to the Troy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
93.1%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q2 3:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
93.1%
Reggie Love run for 6 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+9
92.7%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 9 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.1%
Joel Stave run for 4 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
94.6%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the Troy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11FUMBLE
11 plays · 56 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
94.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 10 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
94.6%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the Troy 22Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+12
94.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 12 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
94.5%
Brandon Burks run for 8 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 42
0
94.2%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+23
94.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 23 yds to the WISCONSIN 35 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
93.8%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 38Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+12
94.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 12 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+1
94.0%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-8
93.7%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Joe Schobert for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 33 Brandon Silvers fumbled, recovered by Wisc Michael Caputo , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 3:1694% → 98%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
94.2%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+7
94.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 7 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
94.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Derek Watt for 5 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
94.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+6
94.4%
Taiwan Deal run for 6 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
94.6%
Tanner McEvoy run for 9 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+32
97.9%
Tanner McEvoy run for 32 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
97.2%
Burks, Brandon rush for 2 yards to the TROY26 (Edwards, TJ), PENALTY TROY illegal formation 5 yards to the TROY19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 15
OWN 19
-9
97.2%
Burks, Brandon rush for 2 yards to the TROY21 (Hayes, Jesse), PENALTY TROY holding (Lawrence, Luke) 9 yards to the TROY10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 24
OWN 10
+7
97.2%
Brandon Burks run for 7 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 17
OWN 17
0
97.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 17
OWN 17
0
97.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 17
OWN 17
0
97.3%
Ryan Kay punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the Wisc 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14MISSED FG
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:0398% → 98%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
97.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 21 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
97.9%
Taiwan Deal run for 5 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+1
97.9%
Taiwan Deal run for 1 yd to the Troy 35Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+1
97.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 1 yd to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+52
97.7%
Rafael Gaglianone 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15MISSED FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 4:123% → 3%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
97.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy Ruben, broken up by Derrick TindalSimilar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+14
97.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 14 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
97.1%
Burks, Brandon rush for 4 yards to the WIS48 (McEvoy, Tanner), PENALTY TROY holding (Garcia, Antonio) 10 yards to the TROY38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+2
97.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 2 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 18
OWN 40
+5
97.3%
Silvers, B. pass incomplete to Johnson, John, PENALTY WIS DO (Cichy, Jack) 5 yards to the TROY45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 13
OWN 45
-3
97.3%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Conor Sheehy for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 16
OWN 42
+27
97.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Ismail Saleem for 12 yds to the WISCONSIN 46 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, personal foul (Derrick Tindal) to the Wisc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
96.7%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
97.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for no gain to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
97.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+47
97.5%
Ryan Kay 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
98.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 11 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
98.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 8 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+5
98.4%
Taiwan Deal run for 5 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
98.4%
Taiwan Deal run for 1 yd to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-1
98.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+2
98.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 2 yds to the Troy 44 WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
98.2%
Drew Meyer punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17DOWNS
11 plays · 25 yds · 3:462% → 2%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
98.0%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 5
OWN 19
-1
97.9%
Brandon Burks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 18Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+5
98.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 5 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+1
98.0%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
98.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 12 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
97.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 15
OWN 31
-7
98.0%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Vince Biegel for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 22
OWN 24
+15
98.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Ismail Saleem for 15 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
98.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel Thompson TROY Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18TD
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:5799% → 100%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+38
98.9%
Joel Stave pass complete to Austin Traylor for 38 yds to the Troy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Austin Traylor for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:470% → 0%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
99.9%
Josh Anderson run for 2 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Josh Anderson run for 2 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete to Jarvis BentleySimilar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 6
OWN 33
-5
99.9%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 11
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Ryan Kay punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.9%
Taiwan Deal run for 4 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Taiwan Deal run for 2 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Bart Houston pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+2
99.9%
Drew Meyer punt for 46 yds , Teddy Ruben returns for 2 yds to the Troy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
99.9%
Josh Anderson run for 3 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+6
99.9%
Josh Anderson run for 6 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Josh Anderson run for 2 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:16
Tanner McEvoy run for 32 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q2 0:39
Joel Stave run for 4 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+2.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 8:19
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the Troy 24
-1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com