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RUTG

Rutgers 3 at Penn State 28

PSU
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreRUTG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:39 · Chris Gulla punt for 30 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Home team on offense+0.1Pregame prior+20.8Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:10: DeAndre Thompkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK) — PSU win probability +4.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:06: Saquon Barkley run for 15 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK) — PSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:04: Akeel Lynch run for 75 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK) — PSU win probability +9.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:10: Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 11 yds to the Rutgr 46 for a 1ST down — PSU win probability +2.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:17: PENN ST Penalty, sideline interference (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard line — PSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7RUTG made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00PSU 4th & 11 at RUTG 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:55RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:39PSU 4th & 15 at RUTG 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    68.0%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:59RUTG 4th & 5 at PSU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    32.9%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:10RUTG 4th & 8 at RUTG 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:44PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:28RUTG 4th & 8 at RUTG 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:06RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:54RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:51PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 40, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:17PSU 4th & 1 at RUTG 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    94.1%−0.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:54RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:24PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 48, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:35RUTG 4th & 14 at PSU 16, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:14PSU 4th & 11 at RUTG 40, up 25
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 12:10PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:06PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:04PSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:21PSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
73.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 9 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+6
73.1%
Akeel Lynch run for 6 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
73.1%
PENN ST Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+13
73.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 13 yds to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+3
73.1%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
73.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
73.1%
PENN ST Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 45
-15
73.1%
PENN ST Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 30
OWN 40
+6
73.1%
Akeel Lynch run for 6 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 46
+13
73.1%
Akeel Lynch run for 13 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
73.1%
Chris Gulla punt for 39 yds, downed at the Rutgr 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
72.3%
RUTGERS Penalty, illegal procedure (-1 Yards) to the Rutgr 1Similar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+4
72.3%
Paul James run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 5Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 7
OWN 5
-3
72.4%
RUTGERS Penalty, illegal procedure (-3 Yards) to the Rutgr 2Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
72.4%
Paul James run for no gain to the Rutgr 2Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+3
72.5%
Chris Laviano run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 5Similar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 7
OWN 5
+8
72.6%
Joey Roth punt for 38 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 8 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
72.5%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
72.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
72.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 10
OPP 35
-5
71.7%
PENN ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 15
OPP 40
0
71.5%
Chris Gulla punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 53 yds · 3:4928% → 30%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
71.6%
Josh Hicks run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 12Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+15
71.6%
PENN ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Rutgr 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
71.5%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Matt Flanagan for 7 yds to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+12
71.2%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Andre Patton for 12 yds to the Rutgr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
71.0%
Josh Hicks run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 48Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+6
71.0%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Carlton Agudosi for 6 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+4
71.0%
Josh Hicks run for 4 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
70.9%
Robert Martin run for 1 yd to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
70.9%
Chris Laviano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+4
70.1%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Janarion Grant for 4 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
70.4%
Joey Roth punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 6:0271% → 77%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
71.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
50
+4
72.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
72.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
72.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
72.1%
Akeel Lynch run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
72.5%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+6
72.0%
Brandon Polk run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
72.5%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+5
72.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+13
72.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 13 yds to the Rutgr 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
72.5%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 2Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.8%
DeAndre Thompkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.0%
RUTGERS Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
75.2%
Robert Martin run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
75.2%
Chris Laviano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+6
75.7%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Janarion Grant for 6 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
75.9%
Joey Roth punt for 40 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
75.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 6 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-2
76.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
75.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+52
75.0%
Chris Gulla punt for 52 yds , Janarion Grant returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
75.7%
Paul James run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 12Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+11
75.8%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Paul James for 11 yds to the Rutgr 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
75.6%
Paul James run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
75.5%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Charles Scarff for 6 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+12
75.3%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Carlton Agudosi for 12 yds to the Rutgr 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
74.7%
Justin Goodwin run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-2
74.1%
Paul James run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
75.1%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Carlton Agudosi, broken up by John ReidSimilar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
76.0%
Joey Roth punt for 45 yds, downed at the PnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 3:2777% → 86%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+48
76.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 48 yds to the Rutgr 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
78.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+11
78.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 11 yds to the Rutgr 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
78.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 8 yds to the Rutgr 16Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 2
OPP 16
0
78.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+5
78.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-4
78.7%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 15Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 14
OPP 15
+15
85.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 15 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.1%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Janarion Grant for 4 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
84.0%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Janarion Grant for 8 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
83.9%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Janarion Grant, broken up by Jordan LucasSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
84.0%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Carlton AgudosiSimilar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
84.4%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Janarion GrantSimilar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+6
84.6%
Joey Roth punt for 44 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 6 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
94.3%
Akeel Lynch run for 75 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12INT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:297% → 8%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Chris Laviano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.7%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Charles Scarff for 5 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
92.2%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Carlton Agudosi for 11 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
91.8%
Chris Laviano pass intercepted Grant Haley return for no gain to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
91.8%
RUTGERS Penalty, illegal use of hands ( Yards) to the Rutgr 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
94.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 11 yds to the Rutgr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
94.6%
TEAM run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
92.9%
Paul James run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 14Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 14
-2
93.0%
Paul James run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 12Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+7
93.0%
Chris Laviano run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 19Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 6
OWN 19
+6
93.0%
Joey Roth punt for 51 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 6 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
94.9%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+5
94.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to N/A for 5 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
94.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris Godwin, broken up by Isaiah WhartonSimilar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
94.4%
Chris Gulla punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the Rutgr 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16INT
8 plays · 54 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
94.3%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Matt Flanagan for 15 yds to the Rutgr 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
94.0%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Josh Hicks for 14 yds to the Rutgr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
94.0%
Josh Hicks run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 48Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+7
93.8%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Josh Hicks for 7 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
93.8%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Carlton Agudosi for 17 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
93.2%
Robert Martin run for 2 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-5
93.2%
RUTGERS Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+44
93.6%
Chris Laviano pass intercepted John Reid return for 44 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
96.0%
PENN ST Penalty, sideline interference (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
50
-1
95.9%
DeAndre Thompkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+10
95.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 10 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
95.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
95.5%
Christian Hackenberg run for no gain to the Rutgr 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
95.5%
Robert Martin run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
95.5%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Andre Patton, broken up by Grant HaleySimilar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+1
95.6%
Chris Laviano run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
95.6%
Joey Roth punt for 31 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
96.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 15 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
96.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 5 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
96.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 45Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+3
96.7%
Christian Hackenberg run for 3 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
96.4%
Chris Gulla punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the Rutgr 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20FG
17 plays · 71 yds · 7:133% → 4%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
97.0%
Chris Laviano pass complete to John Tsimis for 8 yds to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 2
OWN 21
0
96.8%
Paul James run for no gain to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+3
97.0%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Nick Arcidiacono for 3 yds to the Rutgr 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
97.0%
Paul James run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
96.9%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Charles Scarff for 5 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+3
98.1%
Chris Laviano run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
98.1%
Josh Hicks run for 16 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.1%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Matt FlanaganSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+13
98.1%
Robert Martin run for 13 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
98.1%
Josh Hicks run for 2 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+12
97.8%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Carlton Agudosi for 12 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
97.8%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Matt Flanagan for 7 yds Matt Flanagan fumbled, recovered by Rutgr John Tsimis for a 1ST down , return for 6 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
97.7%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Matt FlanaganSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+1
97.8%
Paul James run for 1 yd to the PnSt 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
98.0%
Chris Laviano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 11
-5
98.1%
RUTGERS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 16Similar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 14
OPP 16
+34
96.5%
Kyle Federico 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21INT
10 plays · 49 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
97.2%
RUTGERS Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 5
OWN 28
+1
97.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 29Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+40
97.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 40 yds to the Rutgr 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
97.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+4
97.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
97.4%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 14
OPP 23
0
97.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 14
OPP 23
-5
97.3%
PENN ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 19
OPP 28
0
97.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted Anthony Cioffi return for no gain to the Rutgr 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
97.1%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Carlton AgudosiSimilar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+19
97.2%
Josh Hicks run for 19 yds to the Rutgr 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
97.0%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Andre Patton for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
50
-13
96.7%
Chris Laviano sacked by Carl Nassib for a loss of 13 yards to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 23
OWN 37
-7
97.0%
Chris Laviano sacked by Jordan Lucas for a loss of 7 yards to the Rutgr 30 Chris Laviano fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Chris Laviano , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 30
OWN 30
-9
97.1%
Chris Laviano sacked by Austin Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 39
OWN 21
0
97.1%
Joey Roth punt for 49 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:4598% → 100%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+54
98.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 54 yds to the Rutgr 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 16 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.7%
Chris Laviano pass complete to John Tsimis for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+22
99.6%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Carlton Agudosi for 22 yds Carlton Agudosi fumbled, forced by Troy Apke, recovered by PnSt John Reid , return for 19 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:27100% → 100%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-15
99.8%
PENN ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
99.8%
Mark Allen run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-2
99.8%
Mark Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 11
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Mark Allen run for no gain to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 11
OPP 40
+5
99.8%
Nick Scott run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · -7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.4%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Justin Goodwin for 7 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
99.4%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Nick Arcidiacono for 4 yds to the Rutgr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
99.4%
Chris Laviano sacked by Antoine White and Torrence Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 13
OWN 43
-5
99.5%
RUTGERS Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 18
OWN 38
-19
99.3%
Chris Laviano sacked by Curtis Cothran for a loss of 19 yards to the Rutgr 19Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 37
OWN 19
0
99.2%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete, broken up by Jake CooperSimilar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 37
OWN 19
+9
99.2%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Justin Goodwin for 9 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:04
Akeel Lynch run for 75 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)
+9.7
TD · Q2 2:06
Saquon Barkley run for 15 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)
+7
TD · Q2 12:10
DeAndre Thompkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com