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UNLV

UNLV 7 at Michigan 28

MICH
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Blake O'Neill punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Pregame prior+33.9Home team on offense+19.6Score differential+14.8Garbage-time factor+6.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:56: Jehu Chesson run for 36 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +0.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:50: Ty Isaac run for 76 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q2 1:46: Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 27 Lexington Thomas fumbled, forced by Chris Wormley, recovered by UNLV Lexington Thomas — UNLV win probability +0.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:51: MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST down — MICH win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:17: Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 6 yds for a TD, (Nicolai Bornand KICK) — UNLV win probability +0.9 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UNLV made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:30UNLV 4th & 14 at UNLV 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:42MICH 4th & 13 at UNLV 35, up 7
    Close callPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:33UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:56UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:28UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:50UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:53MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 48, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 30, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:31UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 11, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:30MICH 4th & 1 at UNLV 36, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:14UNLV 4th & 14 at MICH 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:18MICH 4th & 3 at UNLV 48, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:17MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 37, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:11UNLV 4th & 2 at UNLV 17, down 21
    Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:46MICH 4th & 7 at UNLV 36, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:28UNLV 4th & 5 at MICH 49, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNLV made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:30MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:56MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:50MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:31MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:17UNLV Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.0%
Keith Whitely run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
98.0%
Keith Whitely run for no gain to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+16
98.0%
Blake Decker run for 16 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
98.0%
Blake Decker pass intercepted Channing Stribling return for 30 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:2398% → 98%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
97.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+6
97.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
97.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
97.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 11 yds to the UNLV 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
97.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the UNLV 5Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.8%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 5 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
97.5%
Keith Whitely run for 7 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+6
97.4%
Keith Whitely run for 6 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
97.4%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the UNLV 31Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+2
97.4%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-7
97.5%
Blake Decker run for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 26 Blake Decker fumbled, recovered by UNLV Blake DeckerSimilar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 14
OWN 26
0
97.5%
Logan Yunker punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:4097% → 97%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
97.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 9 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+5
97.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
97.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+9
97.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Joe Kerridge for 9 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
97.2%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 35Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 13
OPP 35
0
97.2%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara Darboh, broken up by Torry McTyerSimilar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 13
OPP 35
0
97.1%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 13
OPP 35
0
96.8%
Blake O'Neill punt for 32 yds, downed at the UNLV 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
96.8%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the UNLV 4Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+7
96.8%
Keith Whitely run for 7 yds to the UNLV 11Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+12
96.8%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 12 yds to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
96.7%
Blake Decker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
96.7%
Blake Decker run for 1 yd to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
96.8%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Channing StriblingSimilar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
96.8%
Logan Yunker punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 2:0297% → 97%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
96.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 4
50
+3
96.6%
Jake Rudock run for 3 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+7
96.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Joe Kerridge for 7 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
96.5%
Amara Darboh run for 4 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+36
97.3%
Jehu Chesson run for 36 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.0%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 6 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
96.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
97.0%
Blake Decker pass complete to Kendal Keys for 2 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
97.0%
UNLV Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 26Similar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+24
97.0%
Logan Yunker punt for 50 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 24 yds to the Mich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
97.2%
Jake Rudock pass intercepted Fred Wilson return for 2 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
96.7%
Lexington Thomas run for 7 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
96.6%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 47Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
96.6%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Jourdan LewisSimilar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 3
OWN 47
-5
96.8%
UNLV Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 42Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
96.8%
Logan Yunker punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10TD
4 plays · 90 yds · 2:0797% → 98%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
96.9%
Joe Kerridge run for 6 yds to the Mich 16Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+3
96.9%
Ty Isaac run for 3 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+5
96.8%
Ty Isaac run for 5 yds to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
98.4%
Ty Isaac run for 76 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
98.1%
Blake Decker run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 17Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+9
98.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Anthony Williams for 9 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+3
98.1%
Blake Decker pass complete to Lexington Thomas for 3 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
98.1%
Blake Decker run for 11 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.0%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Jourdan LewisSimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
98.0%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
98.1%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q2 7:50
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
98.1%
Logan Yunker punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3599% → 99%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
98.5%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Mich 18Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+21
98.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Maurice Ways for 21 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.5%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
98.5%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+9
98.5%
Jake Rudock run for 9 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
98.6%
Blake O'Neill punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:312% → 2%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-8
98.1%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 27 Lexington Thomas fumbled, forced by Chris Wormley, recovered by UNLV Lexington ThomasSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+1
98.2%
Blake Decker run for 1 yd to the UNLV 28Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+5
98.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UNLV 33Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+18
98.1%
George Naufahu run for 18 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.5%
Joe Kerridge run for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
98.5%
Drake Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
98.5%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Drake JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
98.4%
Blake O'Neill punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
98.2%
Keith Whitely run for no gain to the UNLV 11Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-1
98.3%
Keith Whitely run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 10Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+1
98.3%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the UNLV 11Similar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 10
OWN 11
0
98.3%
Logan Yunker punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
98.7%
Drake Johnson run for 9 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+3
98.7%
Jake Rudock run for 3 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
98.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+5
98.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 5 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
98.7%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the UNLV 36Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
98.5%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the UNLV 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
98.4%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 3 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
98.4%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to George Naufahu for 8 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
98.4%
Xzaviar Campbell run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 44Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+14
98.5%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Andrew Price for 14 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
98.4%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Anthony WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-4
98.4%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Taco Charlton for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 46Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 14
OPP 46
0
98.5%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Kendal Keys for no gain to the Mich 46Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 14
OPP 46
0
98.5%
Logan Yunker punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
98.4%
Drake Johnson run for 9 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
98.4%
Drake Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
98.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Joe Kerridge for 8 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+6
98.5%
Ty Isaac run for 6 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
98.5%
Sione Houma run for 2 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+5
98.5%
Drake Johnson run for 5 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
98.5%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
98.3%
Blake O'Neill punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19INT
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
98.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
98.9%
Blake Decker pass intercepted Jeremy Clark return for no gain to the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:0299% → 100%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
99.4%
Ty Isaac run for 15 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
99.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 9 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+6
99.4%
Ty Isaac run for 6 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
99.4%
Ty Isaac run for 4 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+12
99.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 12 yds to the UNLV 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
99.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Drake Harris for 8 yds to the UNLV 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 5
-1
99.4%
Ty Isaac run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+5
99.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Sione Houma for 5 yds to the UNLV 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Sione Houma run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:140% → 1%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Keith Whitely run for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
99.9%
Blake Decker pass complete to Jake Phillips for 13 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+53
99.9%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 53 yds to the Mich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
99.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 6Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.0%
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 6 yds for a TD, (Nicolai Bornand KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
99.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 9 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-14
99.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, clipping (Mason Cole) to the Mich 32Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+5
99.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 5 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
99.5%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
99.5%
Blake O'Neill punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
99.3%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 4 yds to the UNLV 13Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 6
OWN 13
0
99.3%
Blake Decker pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Jourdan LewisSimilar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+4
99.3%
Blake Decker pass complete to George Naufahu for 4 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
99.3%
Logan Yunker punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the UNLV 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
99.6%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+6
99.6%
Derrick Green run for 6 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+2
99.6%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.6%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
99.6%
Ross Taylor-Douglas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
99.6%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
99.6%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Drake HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 25END OF GAME
15 plays · 41 yds · 3:151% → 0%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.4%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
99.4%
Kurt Palandech run for 2 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+5
99.4%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Anthony Williams for 5 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
99.4%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 47Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
99.5%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+4
99.5%
Kurt Palandech run for 4 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 5
OPP 49
+9
99.5%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Kendal Keys for 9 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
99.5%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to George Naufahu for 11 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
99.4%
Kurt Palandech run for 15 yds to the Mich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.4%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-9
99.4%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Maurice Hurst for a loss of 9 yards to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 19
OPP 23
0
99.8%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:50
Ty Isaac run for 76 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q4 9:17
Blake Decker pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 6 yds for a TD, (Nicolai Bornand KICK)
-0.9
TD · Q2 13:56
Jehu Chesson run for 36 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
+0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com