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USF

South Florida 17 at Maryland 35

MD
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:35 · Caleb Rowe pass complete to D.J. Moore for 10 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Home team on offense−0.3Pregame prior+16.5Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Caleb Rowe pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 70 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK) — MD win probability +4.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:10: Brandon Ross 4 Yd Run (Brad Craddock Kick) — MD win probability +7.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:15: Caleb Rowe pass complete to Avery Edwards for 12 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK) — MD win probability +9.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:48: Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +6.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:06: Caleb Rowe pass complete to Avery Edwards for 22 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK) — MD win probability +6.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 2 of 5USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00USF 4th & 5 at USF 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:35MD 4th & 1 at USF 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:44USF 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:21MD 4th & 3 at USF 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    68.6%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:57USF 4th & 2 at USF 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:16USF 4th & 9 at USF 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:04MD 4th & 7 at USF 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:59USF 4th & 12 at MD 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−1.7
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−5.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:54USF 4th & 8 at MD 35, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:48USF 4th & 7 at MD 7, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−5.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00MD 4th & 3 at MD 42, up 11
    Close callPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:00USF 4th & 20 at USF 18, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:47MD 4th & 9 at USF 37, up 18
    Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:56USF 4th & 18 at USF 47, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:40USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:44MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:10MD Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:15MD Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:48USF Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:06MD Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
67.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Chris Barr, broken up by William LikelySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
67.2%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+4
67.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+11
67.2%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 53 yds , William Likely returns for 11 yds to the Mary 40 MARYLAND Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Mary 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
67.1%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
67.0%
Brandon Ross run for 2 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+42
67.0%
Caleb Rowe pass intercepted Devin Abraham return for 42 yds to the Mary 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
65.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 4 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:5166% → 67%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
66.3%
Brandon Ross run for 4 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+28
66.3%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to D.J. Moore for 28 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
66.4%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Levern Jacobs for no gain to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
66.4%
Caleb Rowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+9
66.3%
Caleb Rowe run for 9 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q1 12:35
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+10
66.3%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to D.J. Moore for 10 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
66.4%
Brandon Ross run for 7 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.2%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Kenneth Goins Jr. for 1 yd for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
66.2%
Marlon Mack run for 8 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
65.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for no gain to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
66.1%
Marlon Mack run for 10 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
65.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Sean Price for 5 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+4
65.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 1
OPP 48
-2
65.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 3
50
0
66.0%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 37 yds, downed at the Mary 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 43 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
65.8%
Caleb Rowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+7
65.8%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Ty Johnson for 7 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+9
65.5%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 9 yds to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
66.0%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 20 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
66.8%
Ty Johnson run for 7 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-1
67.0%
Brandon Ross run for 9 yds to the SFla 35 MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+1
67.0%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
66.8%
Caleb Rowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
66.2%
Brad Craddock punt for 27 yds, downed at the SFla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1535% → 35%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
64.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
64.9%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the SFla 19Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+6
65.4%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the SFla 25 Marlon Mack fumbled, forced by Sean Davis, recovered by SFla Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q1 0:57
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+11
65.2%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 57 yds , William Likely returns for 11 yds to the Mary 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 0:4465% → 69%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
65.4%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
65.2%
Brandon Ross run for 1 yd to the Mary 30Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+70
69.2%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 70 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
69.2%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 36
-3
68.4%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Yannick Ngakoue and Quinton Jefferson for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 33Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
69.4%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted Sean Davis return for no gain to the Mary 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10INT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
70.1%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 27Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+9
69.9%
Brandon Ross run for 9 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+4
70.2%
Brandon Ross run for 4 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
71.1%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to D.J. Moore for 9 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
71.3%
Brandon Ross run for 4 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
71.4%
Caleb Rowe run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 49 Caleb Rowe fumbled, recovered by Mary Caleb RoweSimilar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-5
70.8%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 46Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+3
70.5%
Wes Brown run for 3 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+27
69.8%
Caleb Rowe pass intercepted for a 1ST down Deatrick Nichols return for 12 yds to the MARYLAND 39 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, player disqualification (15 Yards) to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
69.1%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+2
69.4%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
69.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
70.8%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
70.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, offside defense (Nigel Harris) to the Mary 25Similar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 5
OWN 25
+9
71.4%
Caleb Rowe run for 9 yds to the Mary 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
71.2%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Taivon Jacobs, broken up by Mazzi WilkinsSimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
71.0%
Brandon Ross run for 6 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+13
71.6%
Brandon Ross run for 13 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
72.7%
Brandon Ross run for 1 yd to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-5
72.6%
MARYLAND Penalty, illegal procedure (Evan Mulrooney) to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+12
71.5%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 12 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
72.2%
Ty Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 2
OPP 39
-5
71.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (Mike Minter) to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 7
OPP 44
+24
71.1%
Brad Craddock punt for 39 yds, downed at the SFla 5 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 4:1228% → 31%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
71.7%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
71.9%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+28
72.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 28 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
69.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-1
68.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 44Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+6
69.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 6 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
69.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 12 yds to the Mary 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
67.8%
Marlon Mack run for 12 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
67.8%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the Mary 12Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 8
OPP 12
-10
67.8%
FLOWERS, Quinto pass complete to BARR, Chris for loss of 3 yards to the UMD15 (Hendy, A.J.), PENALTY USF holding 10 yards to the UMD22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 18
OPP 22
+6
70.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the Mary 16Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 12
OPP 16
0
71.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 12
OPP 16
+34
68.7%
Emilio Nadelman 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 0:4269% → 83%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
68.9%
Brandon Ross run for 5 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+10
70.4%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 10 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+49
70.8%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 49 yds to the SFla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
71.5%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+4
82.7%
Brandon Ross 4 Yd Run (Brad Craddock Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
80.3%
Marlon Mack run for 12 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16TD
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:3681% → 90%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
80.7%
Rowe, Caleb pass incomplete to Jacobs, Taivon (NICHOLS, Deatri), PENALTY USF roughing passer (BYRD, Jamie) 15 yards to the USF22, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
80.7%
Brandon Ross run for no gain to the SFla 22Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+11
80.7%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 11 yds to the SFla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
80.6%
Caleb Rowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 12 Caleb Rowe fumbled, recovered by Mary Caleb RoweSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 11
OPP 12
0
80.6%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 11
OPP 12
+12
90.3%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Avery Edwards for 12 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:1414% → 13%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
86.4%
Darius Tice run for 7 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+10
85.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 10 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
85.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-10
85.6%
MACK, Marlon rush for 34 yards to the UMD0, clock 11:54, PENALTY USF holding (AMICHIA, Kofi) 10 yards to the UMD44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 17
OPP 44
+12
87.7%
Darius Tice run for 12 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-3
86.4%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Jesse Aniebonam for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 35Similar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 8
OPP 35
-5
87.5%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Roman Braglio for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
92.1%
Brandon Ross run for no gain to the Mary 40Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
92.1%
Rowe, Caleb pass incomplete to Etta-Tawo, Amba, PENALTY USF face mask (NICHOLS, Deatri) 15 yards to the USF45, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
92.2%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Levern Jacobs for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 48Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+2
92.1%
Brandon Ross run for 2 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+13
91.9%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 13 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
92.2%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Avery Edwards for 2 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+13
92.2%
Caleb Rowe pass intercepted Jamie Byrd return for 13 yds to the SFla 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
19 plays · 69 yds · 6:559% → 16%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
90.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+11
91.1%
Darius Tice run for 11 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
90.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
90.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Sean PriceSimilar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+17
90.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 17 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
90.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+3
89.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
90.3%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the Mary 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
89.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 31Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+10
90.2%
Darius Tice run for 10 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+5
90.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the Mary 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
89.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 21Similar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+7
90.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+8
89.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 8 yds to the Mary 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
89.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Brynjar Gudmundsson) to the Mary 11Similar
Q3 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
0
89.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to D'Ernest JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
89.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the Mary 6Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
90.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 7Similar
Q3 0:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
84.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4886% → 87%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
86.3%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+7
87.2%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 7 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+1
87.5%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Brandon Ross for 1 yd to the Mary 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
86.6%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21INT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+17
86.3%
Steven Bench run for no gain to the SFla 32 Steven Bench fumbled, recovered by SFla Steven Bench for a 1ST down , return for 17 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
85.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
85.7%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to D'Ernest JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-15
87.0%
BENCH, Steven pass complete to ADAMS, Rodney for 23 yards to the UMD45 (Carter, Jermaine), PENALTY USF personal foul (BRONSON, Ryshen) 15 yards to the USF17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 25
OWN 17
+15
87.3%
BENCH, Steven pass intercepted by Hills, Perry at the USF47, Hills, Perry return to the USF39 (JOHNSON, D'Erne), PENALTY UMD roughing passer (Braglio, Roman) 15 yards to the USF32, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
85.1%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Sean PriceSimilar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
85.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+33
86.9%
Steven Bench pass intercepted Sean Davis return for 33 yds to the SFla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22TD
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:3991% → 97%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
90.9%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (Evan Mulrooney) to the SFla 22Similar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 15
OPP 22
0
90.9%
Brandon Ross run for no gain to the SFla 22Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 15
OPP 22
0
90.8%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Brandon RossSimilar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 15
OPP 22
+22
97.3%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Avery Edwards for 22 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
96.4%
FLOWERS, Quinto pass complete to ADAMS, Rodney for 9 yards to the USF37 (Ashiru, Jefferson), PENALTY USF holding (PRICE, Sean) 10 yards to the USF18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+8
96.6%
Marlon Mack run for 8 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 12
OWN 26
-3
96.6%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Roman Braglio for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 23 Quinton Flowers fumbled, recovered by SFla Kofi Amichia , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 15
OWN 23
-5
96.7%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Yannick Ngakoue for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 18Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 20
OWN 18
0
96.7%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 34 yds, downed at the Mary 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
97.7%
Ty Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
97.7%
Ty Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+7
97.6%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Shane Cockerille for 7 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
97.7%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+4
97.7%
Ty Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
97.6%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Kenneth Goins Jr.Similar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 4
OPP 32
-5
97.4%
MARYLAND Penalty, delay of game (Brad Craddock) to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
97.4%
Brad Craddock punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 31 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
98.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 5
OWN 13
0
98.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Sean Price, broken up by Jermaine Carter Jr.Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+26
98.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 26 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
98.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+14
98.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 14 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
98.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-15
98.0%
FLOWERS, Quinto pass incomplete to PRICE, Sean, PENALTY USF illegal block (JOHNSON, D'Erne) 15 yards to the USF40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 25
OWN 40
+7
98.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 7 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 18
OWN 47
0
98.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 18
OWN 47
-8
98.2%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Chandler Burkett for a loss of 8 yards to the SFla 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
99.0%
Ty Johnson run for 6 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+1
99.0%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
98.9%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds to the SFla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:15
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Avery Edwards for 12 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)
+9.7
TD · Q2 0:10
Brandon Ross 4 Yd Run (Brad Craddock Kick)
+7.9
TD · Q4 10:06
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Avery Edwards for 22 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com