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BUF

Buffalo 14 at Penn State 27

PSU
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:30 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:57: Brandon Polk run for 22 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK) — PSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:33: Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 14 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +14.1 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q3 0:20: Joey Julius 21 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:04: Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 5 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK) — PSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:38: Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 10 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +3.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9BUF made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 12:47PSU 4th & 6 at BUF 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    85.6%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:24BUF 4th & 20 at BUF 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:42PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:29BUF 4th & 5 at PSU 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.0%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:44PSU 4th & 1 at BUF 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    81.4%−0.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:09PSU 4th & 7 at BUF 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:15BUF 4th & 23 at BUF 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:41PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:34BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:58PSU 4th & 3 at BUF 5, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.3%−0.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:10BUF 4th & 23 at BUF 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−1.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:21BUF 4th & 21 at BUF 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−2.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:12PSU 4th & 6 at BUF 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:24BUF 4th & 4 at PSU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    14.0%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−6.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:20PSU 4th & 4 at BUF 4, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.3%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−12.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:29BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:56BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 34, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:20BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 41, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:45PSU 4th & 16 at BUF 33, up 13
    Close callWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:39BUF 4th & 12 at PSU 44, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 6:57PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:33BUF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:04PSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:02PSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:38BUF Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3187% → 86%
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
86.5%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+6
86.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 6 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 2
OPP 34
-4
86.3%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+4
86.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 4 yds to the Buff 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:2014% → 14%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
86.0%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
85.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-7
85.7%
Joe Licata sacked by Carl Nassib for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 15
OWN 29
-5
85.8%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 20
OWN 24
0
85.7%
Tyler Grassman punt for 48 yds , Mark Allen returns for no gain to the PnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3886% → 85%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
85.6%
Akeel Lynch run for 7 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+2
85.5%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
85.3%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
85.0%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4MISSED FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:5515% → 17%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
84.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 2 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+6
84.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-5
84.4%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+15
84.6%
Licata, Joe pass incomplete to McGill, Marcus, PENALTY PENNST pass interference 15 yards to the BUFFALO48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BUFFALO.Similar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
84.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 17 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
83.9%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 15
OPP 40
-5
84.0%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+5
83.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 5 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+2
83.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+8
83.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+47
83.4%
Adam Mitcheson 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5MISSED FG
15 plays · 38 yds · 6:1484% → 82%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
83.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
83.5%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+12
83.0%
Akeel Lynch run for 12 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
83.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 9 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
83.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-5
83.4%
PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 44Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+10
83.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 10 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
83.5%
Akeel Lynch run for 7 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+1
83.3%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+1
82.9%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 0:44
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
82.4%
Christian Hackenberg run for 2 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
83.0%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
83.0%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
82.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+49
81.7%
Joey Julius 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 8 yds · 3:4520% → 20%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
80.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+6
80.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+1
79.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
79.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 3 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+8
78.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 8 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
78.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-5
78.0%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
78.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 11
OPP 48
-12
78.6%
Joe Licata sacked by Austin Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the Buff 40Similar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 23
OWN 40
0
79.8%
Tyler Grassman punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3080% → 78%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
79.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+2
79.4%
Mark Allen run for 2 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+2
78.6%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
78.0%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 55 yds, downed at the Buff 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4622% → 22%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
77.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Collin LisaSimilar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
77.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 4 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
76.9%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:49
4TH & 6
OWN 31
+5
77.6%
PENN ST Penalty, Offside Defense (5 Yards) to the Buff 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 7:34
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+58
76.6%
Tyler Grassman punt for 46 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 58 yds to the Buff 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10TD
2 plays · 24 yds · 0:3181% → 85%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
80.6%
Christian Hackenberg run for 2 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+22
85.3%
Brandon Polk run for 22 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11INT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:5217% → 16%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
83.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 18 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-15
82.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 25
OWN 33
0
83.4%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 25
OWN 33
+10
83.6%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Carl Nassib return for 10 yds to the Buff 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4486% → 85%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
85.5%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 14Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+7
85.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 7 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+2
85.0%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+22
85.2%
Joey Julius 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · -3 yds · 2:3114% → 13%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
85.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
86.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 7 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
85.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-15
85.2%
BUFFALO Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 23
OWN 22
0
86.0%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 23
OWN 22
0
86.4%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 23
OWN 22
+11
86.7%
Tyler Grassman punt for 40 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 11 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14END OF HALF
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:3888% → 87%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
88.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 9 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
87.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+7
87.2%
Akeel Lynch run for 7 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
88.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
88.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 11 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
88.0%
BUFFALO Penalty, Offside Defense (5 Yards) to the Buff 19Similar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 5
OPP 19
0
87.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+4
87.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 4 yds to the Buff 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 2:2815% → 13%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
85.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, Personal Foul (-12 Yards) to the Buff 13Similar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+6
85.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+1
86.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 1 yd to the Buff 20Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-6
86.8%
Joe Licata sacked by Austin Johnson and Garrett Sickels for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 14Similar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+38
87.1%
Tyler Grassman punt for 38 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0787% → 86%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
87.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 7
50
+5
87.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
87.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 1
OPP 44
-5
86.3%
PENN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
86.0%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 4:3214% → 31%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
86.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 5 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
85.8%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+29
86.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 29 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
84.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the PnSt 43Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+12
84.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 12 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
83.7%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 34Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+2
84.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+7
85.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 7 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+9
85.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 9 yds to the PnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
83.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
69.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 14 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18FG
16 plays · 56 yds · 5:1378% → 83%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
77.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, Offside Defense (5 Yards) to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
77.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 2 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+5
77.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 5 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+4
77.3%
Akeel Lynch run for 4 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
77.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
77.6%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+11
76.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 11 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
78.4%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (5 Yards) to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 5
OPP 25
+1
78.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+20
78.3%
Brandon Polk run for 20 yds to the Buff 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
78.2%
PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Buff 9Similar
Q3 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
78.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Buff 4Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
77.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q3 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
76.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q3 0:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
83.2%
Joey Julius 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4423% → 21%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
76.9%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 22Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
77.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 6 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
78.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for no gain to the Buff 28Similar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
79.0%
Tyler Grassman punt for 37 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 3 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:1684% → 95%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+33
84.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 33 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
86.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 17 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
86.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 7 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
95.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 5 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-15
94.8%
PENN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:588% → 7%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
92.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
92.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
92.8%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
93.1%
Tyler Grassman punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 1:4095% → 99%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
94.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 9 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+15
95.2%
BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
50
+3
95.4%
Brandon Polk run for 3 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
95.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+38
95.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 38 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
96.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q4 9:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 9 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23TD
16 plays · 82 yds · 4:121% → 5%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt WeiserSimilar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
99.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 5 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-5
99.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+14
99.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 14 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-11
99.1%
Joe Licata sacked by Carl Nassib for a loss of 11 yards to the Buff 21 BUFFALO Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Buff 21Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 21
OWN 21
+9
99.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 9 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+11
99.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 11 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 6:20
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+2
99.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
99.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
99.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 3
50
+21
99.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 21 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
99.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+17
99.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 17 yds to the PnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
95.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 10 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:4598% → 98%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+24
97.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 24 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
97.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Buff 22 PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Buff 37Similar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+2
97.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 18
OPP 35
+2
98.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 16
OPP 33
0
98.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 16
OPP 33
-11
98.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the Buff 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:013% → 2%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
97.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 14 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
97.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 9 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 1
OPP 33
-4
96.5%
Joe Licata sacked by Carl Nassib for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 5
OPP 37
-7
97.1%
Joe Licata sacked by Carl Nassib for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
97.7%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:33
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 14 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
-14.1
TD · Q4 12:04
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 5 yds for a TD, (Joey Julius KICK)
+8.7
FG · Q3 0:20
Joey Julius 21 yd FG GOOD
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com