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MINN

Minnesota 23 at Colorado State 20

CSU
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGFGTDFGTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:52 · Peter Mortell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the COLOST 21 MINNESOTA Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the ColSt 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 6Pregame prior−12.0Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:42: Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 38 yds for a TD (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +17.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:23: Coleman Key pass complete to Joe Hansley for 49 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +23.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 0:55: Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 22 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +62.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:00: Wyatt Bryan 37 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +36.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Rodney Smith run for 16 yds to the ColSt 2 for a 1ST down — MINN win probability +51.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11MINN made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 14:52MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:54MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:04CSU 4th & 16 at CSU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:11MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:15CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:33MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:20MINN 4th & 1 at CSU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−1.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:14CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 26, up 7
    Close callPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:19MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:43CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:51MINN 4th & 7 at CSU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−6.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:51CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:28MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 14, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:22CSU 4th & 12 at CSU 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−2.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:05CSU 4th & 7 at MINN 9, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−12.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:58MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−1.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:23MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:51CSU 4th & 11 at CSU 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−2.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:08MINN 4th & 6 at CSU 30, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.3%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−4.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:08CSU 4th & 3 at midfield, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%−2.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:40MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 16, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%−3.0
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:58CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:11MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.6%−3.8
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:43CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.4%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:05CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:42MINN Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:23CSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:55MINN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.0%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted Briean Boddy-Calhoun return for no gain to the Minn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
38.0%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
38.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Eric CarterSimilar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
38.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:52
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+27
38.0%
Peter Mortell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the COLOST 21 MINNESOTA Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the ColSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:5538% → 41%
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+31
38.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 31 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
38.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the Minn 33Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+2
38.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+10
38.4%
Nick Stevens run for 10 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
38.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the Minn 17Similar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
38.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+17
41.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 17 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
40.8%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+5
40.8%
Chris Streveler run for 5 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+1
40.8%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+60
40.9%
Peter Mortell punt for 55 yds, downed at the COLOST 11 COLORADO ST Penalty, IB (DeAndre Elliott) to the ColSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
42.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Joe Hansley, broken up by Briean Boddy-CalhounSimilar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+8
42.3%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 8 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+4
42.1%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
42.4%
STEVENS, Nick pass complete to HANSLEY, Joe for 33 yards to the MINN49 (Ayinde,Adekunle), PENALTY CS personal foul (CARLSON, Sam) 9 yards to the CS9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 19
OWN 9
-5
42.4%
STEVENS, Nick pass complete to DAWKINS, Dalyn for 8 yards to the CS17 (Lynn, Jack), PENALTY CS personal foul (ZERBLIS, Fred) 5 yards to the CS4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 24
OWN 4
+2
42.4%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 6Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 22
OWN 6
+5
42.3%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 17
OWN 11
+1
42.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 1 yd to the ColSt 12Similar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 16
OWN 12
+60
41.9%
Hayden Hunt punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Craig James at the COLOST 33 MINNESOTA Penalty, delay of game (Craig James) to the Minn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
44.9%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 4 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
44.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
45.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+7
45.5%
Peter Mortell punt for 53 yds , Joe Hansley returns for 7 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
45.9%
Treyous Jarrells run for 1 yd to the ColSt 23Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
45.9%
Treyous Jarrells run for no gain to the ColSt 23Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+2
45.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Deionte Gaines for 2 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 7
OWN 25
+4
45.1%
Hayden Hunt punt for 42 yds , Craig James returns for 4 yds to the Minn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
46.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
46.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 2 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
46.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+3
47.1%
Peter Mortell punt for 41 yds , Joe Hansley returns for 3 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2548% → 49%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
47.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
47.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
47.8%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
49.0%
Joe Hansley run for 1 yd to the ColSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-6
49.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 27 Dalyn Dawkins fumbled, recovered by Minn Steven RichardsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
46.1%
Chris Streveler run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+2
46.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+8
47.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 8 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 1
OPP 18
-1
47.7%
Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 19 Mitch Leidner fumbled, recovered by ColSt Josh LovingoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
50.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Joe Hansley, broken up by Eric MurraySimilar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+7
50.7%
Xavier Williams run for 7 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
50.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Treyous Jarrells, broken up by Hendrick EkpeSimilar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
49.5%
Hayden Hunt punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
50.5%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for no gain to the Minn 31Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
50.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd to the Minn 32Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
51.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+9
51.9%
Peter Mortell punt for 52 yds , Joe Hansley returns for 9 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Elroy Masters Jr. for no gain to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
52.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalyn DawkinsSimilar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
51.9%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalyn Dawkins, broken up by Steven RichardsonSimilar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
51.1%
Hayden Hunt punt for 73 yds, downed at the Minn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14FG
17 plays · 81 yds · 5:5747% → 49%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
53.3%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 8Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 4
OWN 8
0
53.5%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 8Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+9
54.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 9 yds to the Minn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
52.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 19 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
52.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
51.9%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
51.1%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+8
52.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 8 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
52.6%
Rodney Smith run for 11 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
51.3%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+4
50.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 4 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
50.9%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 3 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
53.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
55.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
51.5%
Ryan Santoso 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Deionte GainesSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
52.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Sammie Long IV for 6 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
52.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Kivon CartwrightSimilar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
51.5%
Hayden Hunt punt for 49 yds , Craig James returns for 5 yds to the Minn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 1:4543% → 53%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.6%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 2 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
56.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 6 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
55.8%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 7 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
54.6%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Wozniak, Nate (PIERRE-LOUIS, K), PENALTY CS holding (PIERRE-LOUIS, K) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
50
0
52.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
50
+4
54.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 4 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+7
52.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 7 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
52.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 6 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
51.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+50
47.1%
Ryan Santoso 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
53.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 8 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:1049% → 68%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
50.6%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+26
49.0%
Rodney Smith run for 26 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
31.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 38 yds for a TD (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19INT
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:0037% → 40%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
36.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 17 yds to the ColSt 42 COLORADO ST Penalty, IB (Kivon Cartwright) to the ColSt 32Similar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 3
OWN 32
0
38.9%
Xavier Williams run for no gain to the ColSt 32Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
38.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
36.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Xavier Williams for 7 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
38.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ColSt 39Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
38.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Joe Hansley, broken up by Antonio JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+14
36.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Sammie Long IV for 14 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
40.2%
Treyous Jarrells run for 3 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+4
40.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Deionte Gaines for 4 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-3
40.0%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted Jalen Myrick return for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
33.5%
Mitch Leidner run for 4 yds to the Minn 9Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+4
33.8%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 13Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 2
OWN 13
+1
34.1%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 14Similar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 1
OWN 14
+5
35.2%
Peter Mortell punt for 53 yds , Preston Hodges returns for 5 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0037% → 34%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
37.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
37.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-4
36.2%
Nick Stevens sacked by Steven Richardson for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 36Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
34.1%
Hayden Hunt punt for 57 yds, downed at the Minn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22FUMBLE
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
33.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 9 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 1
OWN 16
-5
32.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Brian Bobek) to the Minn 11Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
33.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ Maye, broken up by Tyree SimmonsSimilar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+2
34.0%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Maye, KJ, PENALTY CS pass interference (HODGES, Preston) 2 yards to the MINN13, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
32.7%
Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 12 Mitch Leidner fumbled, forced by Deonte Clyburn, recovered by ColSt Nick JanuskaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3041% → 44%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
40.7%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Nu'uvali Fa'apitoSimilar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
40.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the Minn 9Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 7
OPP 9
-1
38.7%
Coleman Key run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 9 Coleman Key fumbled, forced by Steven Richardson, recovered by ColSt Fred ZerblisSimilar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
43.7%
Wyatt Bryan 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
39.1%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Joe Kawulok for 0 yards to the Minn 17 MINNESOTA Penalty, intentional grounding (Mitch Leidner) to the Minn 12Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+1
39.7%
Chris Streveler run for 1 yd to the Minn 13Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 14
OWN 13
+19
41.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 19 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
38.1%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 30Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+5
39.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 5 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
39.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Melvin Holland JrSimilar
Q3 2:58
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+11
41.3%
Peter Mortell punt for 46 yds , Preston Hodges returns for 11 yds to the ColSt 46 MINNESOTA Penalty, IF (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:5542% → 70%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
42.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 9 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+7
46.1%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 7 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
69.6%
Coleman Key pass complete to Joe Hansley for 49 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
62.6%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 24Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
63.0%
Leidner, Mitch pass complete to Wozniak, Nate for 12 yards to the MINN36, out-of-bounds (SIMMONS, Tyree), PENALTY MINN IF 5 yards to the MINN19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+12
63.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 12 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-2
62.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 29Similar
Q4 14:23
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
65.2%
Peter Mortell punt for 32 yds, downed at the ColSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0069% → 65%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
68.5%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
68.0%
Treyous Jarrells run for 3 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+8
67.1%
Coleman Key run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
50
0
70.4%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 10
50
-15
69.7%
KEY, Coleman rush for 1 yard to the MINN49 (Ekpe, Hendrick), PENALTY CS personal foul (ZERBLIS, Fred) 15 yards to the CS35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 25
OWN 35
0
66.4%
Coleman Key pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for no gain to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 25
OWN 35
+14
64.6%
Treyous Jarrells run for 14 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
64.7%
Hayden Hunt punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 28MISSED FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 1:2835% → 37%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
65.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, IP (5 Yards) to the Minn 18Similar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 5
OWN 18
+7
64.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 7 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
64.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 11 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Trent Matthews) to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
58.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Eric CarterSimilar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+15
60.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 15 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
57.2%
Rodrick Williams Jr run for 4 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
56.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
59.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+47
62.9%
Ryan Santoso 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
70.2%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 31Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+8
70.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 8 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
71.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
72.8%
Treyous Jarrells run for 3 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
73.2%
Treyous Jarrells run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 3
50
0
72.6%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Xavier Williams, broken up by Jalen MyrickSimilar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 3
50
0
70.4%
Hayden Hunt punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0032% → 29%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
68.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rodney SmithSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+7
68.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 7 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 3
OWN 16
0
69.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ Maye, broken up by Tyree SimmonsSimilar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 3
OWN 16
+3
71.0%
Peter Mortell punt for 51 yds , Preston Hodges returns for 3 yds to the ColSt 19 COLORADO ST Penalty, IB (Elroy Masters Jr.) to the ColSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
82.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-1
82.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+2
81.1%
Coleman Key pass complete to Xavier Williams for 2 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
80.6%
Hayden Hunt punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Craig James at the Minn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 32TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 2:1627% → 92%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
73.5%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+11
72.1%
Mitch Leidner run for 11 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
71.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 4 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
69.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ Maye, broken up by Tyree SimmonsSimilar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
71.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rodney SmithSimilar
Q4 3:11
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+7
74.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 7 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
68.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
69.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 15 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
67.0%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Jonah Pirsig) to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 15
OPP 43
0
69.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rodney Smith, broken up by Joe KawulokSimilar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+14
70.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nick Hart for 14 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+7
66.1%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
8.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 22 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 33FG
13 plays · 0 yds · 15:5524% → 64%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.0%
Coleman Key pass complete to Xavier Williams for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
21.2%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Xavier Williams, broken up by Adekunle AyindeSimilar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
19.3%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+10
18.2%
Coleman Key pass complete to Joe Hansley for 10 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
22.4%
Coleman Key pass complete to Xavier Williams for 5 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+15
24.8%
KEY, Coleman pass incomplete to LONG, Sammie (Johnson,Antonio), PENALTY MINN pass interference (Johnson,Antonio) 15 yards to the MINN43, 1ST DOWN CS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
28.2%
Coleman Key pass complete to Steven Walker for 23 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+37
66.3%
Wyatt Bryan 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 25
0
63.7%
Coleman Key pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for no gain Dalyn Dawkins fumbled, forced by Cody Poock, recovered by Minn Scott EkpeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 34FG
1 play · 24 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+16
12.2%
Rodney Smith run for 16 yds to the ColSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:55
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 22 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
-62
FG · OT 0:00
Rodney Smith run for 16 yds to the ColSt 2 for a 1ST down
-51.5
FG · Q4 0:00
Wyatt Bryan 37 yd FG GOOD
+36
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com