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BYU

BYU 33 at Nebraska 28

NEB
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:07 · Jonny Linehan punt for 77 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Pregame prior+6.9Home team on offense+5.5Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:13: Taysom Hill run for 21 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +6.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:48: Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 15 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +8.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:39: Terrell Newby run for 10 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +16.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 5:31: Trey Foster 9 Yd pass from Tommy Armstrong Jr. (Drew Brown Kick) — NEB win probability +15.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 7:57: Trevor Samson 35 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +13.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BYU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 11:57BYU 4th & 7 at NEB 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    30.0%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:14BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:21NEB 4th & 2 at NEB 32, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:41NEB 4th & 20 at NEB 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−1.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:42BYU 4th & 8 at NEB 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−4.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:57NEB 4th & 29 at NEB 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−3.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:38BYU 4th & 3 at NEB 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    52.5%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:02NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:00BYU 4th & 4 at NEB 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    46.0%−2.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−2.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:07BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:00BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−1.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:12NEB 4th & 1 at NEB 40, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.6 ptsPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%−4.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:41BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.5%−3.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:57BYU 4th & 6 at NEB 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.7
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−12.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:48NEB 4th & 4 at NEB 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−1.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:22BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:48NEB 4th & 5 at BYU 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−4.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−27.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:10NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:50BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:16NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:13BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:48BYU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:39NEB Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:31NEB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:4929% → 29%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
71.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 14 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
71.4%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
71.3%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+9
71.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Terenn Houk for 9 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
71.1%
Algernon Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 49Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 12
OWN 49
-3
71.1%
Taysom Hill sacked by Freedom Akinmoladun for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 46Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+8
71.1%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Kurt Henderson for 8 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
71.0%
Jonny Linehan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jordan Westerkamp at the Neb 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 3:2171% → 73%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
71.0%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the Neb 15Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+11
70.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Lane Hovey for 11 yds to the Neb 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
70.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 7 yds to the Neb 33Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+13
71.0%
Alonzo Moore run for 13 yds to the Neb 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
71.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 18 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+21
71.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 21 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
71.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd to the BYU 14Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
71.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
73.0%
Jordan Westerkamp 14 Yd pass from Tommy Armstrong Jr. (Drew Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4928% → 27%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.5%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
72.5%
Adam Hine run for no gain to the BYU 25Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
72.8%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:14
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
73.0%
Jonny Linehan punt for 64 yds, downed at the Neb 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:3473% → 73%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
72.6%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the Neb 12Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 12
-6
72.7%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-6 Yards) to the Neb 6Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 15
OWN 6
+18
72.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 18 yds to the Neb 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
72.9%
Terrell Newby run for 4 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-8
73.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Logan Taele for a loss of 8 yards to the Neb 20 NEBRASKA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Neb 20Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+12
72.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 12 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q1 4:21
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
72.6%
Sam Foltz punt for 67 yds, downed at the BYU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 99 yds · 1:1827% → 33%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+24
73.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Terenn Houk for 24 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+53
72.9%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 53 yds to the Neb 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
71.4%
Taysom Hill run for 5 yds to the Neb 17Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+14
71.4%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the Neb 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
67.4%
Taysom Hill run for 3 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:1670% → 75%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
69.5%
Mikale Wilbon run for 5 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
70.1%
Mikale Wilbon run for 7 yds to the Neb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
70.1%
Imani Cross run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 45Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+14
70.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Mikale Wilbon for 14 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
70.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+19
70.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 19 yds to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
75.1%
Alonzo Moore 22 Yd pass from Tommy Armstrong Jr. (Drew Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5226% → 34%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
73.6%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
72.8%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 8 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
73.0%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
73.2%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+19
73.7%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Terenn Houk for 19 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
72.4%
Taysom Hill run for 11 yds to the Neb 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
71.7%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Algernon Brown for 8 yds to the Neb 21Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+21
65.8%
Taysom Hill run for 21 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 14 yds · 2:2669% → 68%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
69.1%
Alonzo Moore run for 11 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
69.7%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 31Similar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+2
69.1%
Mikale Wilbon run for 2 yds to the Neb 33Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
68.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+16
68.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 16 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
70.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
70.1%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 44Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 15
OWN 44
0
69.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 15
OWN 44
0
68.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 15
OWN 44
-5
68.1%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Neb 39Similar
Q2 10:41
4TH & 20
OWN 39
0
67.9%
Sam Foltz punt for 39 yds, downed at the BYU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:3333% → 38%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
67.3%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+9
67.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 9 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
66.4%
Tanner Mangum run for 9 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+7
64.9%
Mitchell Juergens run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
50
-10
64.4%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+21
65.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 21 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
63.1%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Neb 49Similar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+12
64.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 12 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+12
62.9%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 12 yds to the Neb 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
62.0%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
62.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Terenn Houk for 7 yds to the Neb 18Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 3
OPP 18
-5
62.5%
Nate Carter run for a loss of 5 yards to the Neb 23Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
61.7%
Trevor Samson 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:3163% → 63%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.8%
Mikale Wilbon run for 2 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
62.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the Neb 22 Tommy Armstrong Jr. fumbled, recovered by BYU Fred WarnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:5741% → 50%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
58.6%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 6 yds to the Neb 16Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+1
58.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Algernon Brown for 1 yd to the Neb 15Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+15
50.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 15 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -19 yds · 0:4551% → 49%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
50.9%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Neb 20Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
50.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-14
49.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Bronson Kaufusi for a loss of 14 yards to the Neb 6 NEBRASKA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Neb 6Similar
Q2 2:57
4TH & 29
OWN 6
+11
48.7%
Sam Foltz punt for 44 yds , Micah Hannemann returns for 11 yds to the Neb 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4652% → 53%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
48.2%
Adam Hine run for 1 yd to the Neb 38Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
48.2%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+6
46.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 6 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 3
OPP 32
0
47.4%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 46 yds · 1:3347% → 47%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
46.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-2
46.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Harvey Langi for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 30Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+15
44.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 15 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
47.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
46.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+16
45.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jamal Turner for 16 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
47.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+13
49.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 13 yds to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
49.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
48.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+40
46.9%
Drew Brown 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:4345% → 42%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.9%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
44.5%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Neb 18Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+7
43.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 7 yds to the Neb 25Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
41.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
42.3%
Sam Foltz punt for 34 yds, downed at the BYU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:4858% → 59%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
42.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 4 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+12
42.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 12 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+58
41.5%
Taysom Hill pass intercepted Nate Gerry return for 43 yds to the BYU 0 NEBRASKA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BYU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 1:0147% → 64%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
47.4%
Imani Cross run for 14 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
47.2%
Brandon Reilly run for 11 yds to the BYU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
63.6%
Terrell Newby run for 10 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:2844% → 46%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
56.5%
Nate Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+35
55.4%
Taysom Hill run for 35 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
51.6%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
51.6%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-5
52.3%
BYU Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Neb 48Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 15
OPP 48
+11
54.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 11 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 4
OPP 37
-1
53.6%
Taysom Hill sacked by Jack Gangwish for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:1459% → 78%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
58.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jamal Turner for 5 yds to the Neb 43Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+14
60.5%
Terrell Newby run for 14 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
61.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Mikale Wilbon for 14 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-7
62.8%
Mikale Wilbon run for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 17
OPP 36
+14
58.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan for 14 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+11
60.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 11 yds to the BYU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
62.4%
Imani Cross run for 2 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
77.7%
Trey Foster 9 Yd pass from Tommy Armstrong Jr. (Drew Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5926% → 25%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-6
73.6%
Nate Carter run for a loss of 6 yards to the BYU 13Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 16
OWN 13
+10
73.6%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Akile Davis for 10 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
74.1%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
75.0%
Jonny Linehan punt for 77 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:3174% → 77%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
74.0%
Terrell Newby run for 8 yds to the Neb 28 NEBRASKA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Neb 18Similar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 12
OWN 18
+16
73.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 16 yds to the Neb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
74.6%
Jamal Turner run for no gain to the Neb 34Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
74.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan for 5 yds to the Neb 39Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+10
75.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 10 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
76.9%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the Neb 49Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
76.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22PUNT
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:0527% → 25%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-7
72.9%
Taysom Hill sacked by Greg McMullen for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 21Similar
Q4 14:37
3RD & 17
OWN 21
+8
75.0%
Taysom Hill run for 8 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+5
75.5%
Jonny Linehan punt for 45 yds , Stanley Morgan returns for 5 yds to the Neb 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4376% → 74%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
75.5%
Imani Cross run for 4 yds to the Neb 35Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
76.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 5 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
76.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for no gain to the Neb 40Similar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
74.1%
Tyson Broekemeier punt for 48 yds, downed at the BYU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:0427% → 38%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+20
72.8%
Adam Hine run for 20 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
71.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 3 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+6
70.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Tyler Cook for 6 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
69.1%
Algernon Brown run for no gain to the BYU 41Similar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+38
77.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 38 yds to the Neb 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
70.1%
Tanner Mangum run for no gain to the Neb 21Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-5
70.5%
BYU Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Neb 26Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 15
OPP 26
0
73.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 15
OPP 26
+9
76.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 9 yds to the Neb 17Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+35
62.3%
Trevor Samson 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0269% → 67%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
68.9%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+6
68.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Lane Hovey for 6 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-3
70.2%
Terrell Newby run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 34Similar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
66.7%
Tyson Broekemeier punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Micah Hannemann at the BYU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1038% → 34%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
62.1%
Tanner Mangum run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
63.8%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+4
65.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 4 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
66.3%
Jonny Linehan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordan Westerkamp at the Neb 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 27MISSED FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:0469% → 80%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
69.0%
Imani Cross run for 14 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
73.6%
Imani Cross run for no gain to the Neb 44Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+27
74.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 27 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
78.5%
Imani Cross run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
80.0%
Mikale Wilbon run for 5 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 3
OPP 22
-2
81.3%
Jamal Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 24Similar
Q4 0:48
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
80.4%
Drew Brown 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 28TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 0:3929% → 97%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
71.1%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+11
71.9%
Tanner Mangum run for 11 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
74.7%
Adam Hine run for 16 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
68.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
71.8%
Tanner Mangum run for 7 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
3.1%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:39
Terrell Newby run for 10 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+16.4
TD · Q3 5:31
Trey Foster 9 Yd pass from Tommy Armstrong Jr. (Drew Brown Kick)
+15.3
FG · Q4 7:57
Trevor Samson 35 yd FG GOOD
-13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com