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RICH

Richmond 21 at Maryland 50

MD
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadRICH aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreRICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:44 · D.J. Helkowski punt for 45 yds , William Likely returns for 35 yds to the Richm 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Pregame prior+4.0Home team on offense+35.5Score differential+30.7Garbage-time factor+10.2Blowout margin+16.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:48: Jacobi Green 1 Yd Run for a TD (Peter Yoder Kick) — RICH win probability +3.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: RICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:35: Kyle Lauletta run for 4 yds for a TD (Peter Yoder KICK) — RICH win probability +6.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: RICH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 4:10: Brad Craddock 30 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +3.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:00: Perry Hills pass complete to Malcolm Culmer for 37 yds for a TD (Brad Craddock PAT MISSED) — MD win probability +8.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:12: Brandon Ross run for 21 yds for a TD (Brad Craddock KICK) — MD win probability +6.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 5RICH made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:06MD 4th & 8 at RICH 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:00RICH 4th & 7 at RICH 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:03RICH 4th & 6 at RICH 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:47RICH 4th & 2 at MD 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    41.7%−1.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:34MD 4th & 6 at RICH 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:10MD 4th & 12 at RICH 12, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−6.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:54RICH 4th & 16 at RICH 19, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−2.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:53RICH 4th & 7 at RICH 28, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:15RICH 4th & 11 at midfield, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:40MD 4th & 4 at MD 26, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:35RICH 4th & 21 at RICH 20, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−2.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:29MD 4th & 3 at RICH 9, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.9%−0.7
    89% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−6.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:25RICH 4th & 5 at RICH 25, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:30RICH 4th & 1 at RICH 34, down 22
    Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:44RICH 4th & 5 at RICH 30, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 5RICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:14MD Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:48RICH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:35RICH Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:00MD Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:12MD Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:55MD Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:26MD Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:22RICH Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:1976% → 76%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
76.4%
Brandon Ross run for 15 yds to the Richm 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
76.4%
Brandon Ross run for 4 yds to the Richm 35Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
76.3%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+17
76.2%
Wes Brown run for 17 yds to the Richm 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
76.3%
Brandon Ross run for 2 yds to the Richm 16Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
76.2%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Kenneth Goins Jr.Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
76.1%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Malcolm CulmerSimilar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+34
76.1%
Brad Craddock 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2924% → 24%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
76.0%
Jacobi Green run for 3 yds to the Richm 27Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
75.9%
Kyle Lauletta pass incomplete to Reggie DiggsSimilar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
76.0%
Kyle Lauletta pass incomplete to Reggie DiggsSimilar
Q1 11:00
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+22
76.1%
D.J. Helkowski punt for 39 yds , William Likely returns for 22 yds to the Richm 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
76.2%
Perry Hills pass intercepted David Jones return for no gain to the Richm 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2924% → 24%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
75.9%
Jacobi Green run for 8 yds to the Richm 13Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+2
75.7%
Jacobi Green run for 2 yds to the Richm 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
75.8%
Jeremiah Hamlin run for 3 yds to the Richm 18Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+1
75.6%
Kyle Lauletta run for 1 yd to the Richm 19Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
75.8%
Kyle Lauletta pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 6
OWN 19
+15
76.0%
D.J. Helkowski punt for 35 yds , William Likely returns for 15 yds to the Richm 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5TD
4 plays · 39 yds · 1:2376% → 78%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
75.9%
Brandon Ross run for 1 yd to the Richm 38Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+2
75.8%
Brandon Ross run for 2 yds to the Richm 36Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+13
75.6%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for 13 yds to the Richm 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
77.6%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 23 yds for a TD (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5223% → 28%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
76.9%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Brian Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the Richm 24Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
76.9%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Richm 29Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
76.7%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Jacobi Green for 15 yds to the Richm 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
76.4%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Brian Brown for 12 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
76.1%
Jeremiah Hamlin run for 1 yd to the Mary 43Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-1
76.6%
Kyle Lauletta run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 44Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+8
77.0%
Kyle Lauletta run for 8 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+24
77.2%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Jacobi Green for 24 yds to the Mary 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
76.1%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Porter Abell for 8 yds to the Mary 4Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+3
76.1%
Jacobi Green run for 3 yds to the Mary 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.3%
Jacobi Green 1 Yd Run for a TD (Peter Yoder Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:4674% → 77%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
74.4%
Wes Brown run for 15 yds to the Richm 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
74.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 6 yds to the Richm 39Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
74.9%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 39
-5
74.6%
MARYLAND Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Richm 44Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+13
74.3%
Perry Hills run for 13 yds to the Richm 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
75.0%
Wes Brown run for 14 yds to the Richm 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
75.0%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the Richm 15Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+2
74.9%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the Richm 13Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
74.4%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
76.5%
Brad Craddock 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 8TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2525% → 33%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.2%
Jeremiah Hamlin run for 7 yds to the Richm 32 Jeremiah Hamlin fumbled, recovered by RichmSimilar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
74.2%
Porter Abell run for 8 yds to the Richm 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+56
73.5%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Brian Brown for 52 yds to the MARYLAND 8 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Face Mask (4 yards) (4 Yards) to the Mary 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.0%
Kyle Lauletta run for 4 yds for a TD (Peter Yoder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 6:0670% → 72%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
70.0%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 9 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
71.2%
Brandon Ross run for 11 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
71.3%
Brandon Ross run for 4 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+4
70.7%
Perry Hills pass complete to Derrick Hayward for 4 yds to the Richm 47Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+6
70.3%
Brandon Ross run for 6 yds to the Richm 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
70.6%
Brandon Ross run for 14 yds to the Richm 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
71.2%
Perry Hills run for 9 yds to the Richm 18Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+11
71.0%
Brandon Ross run for 11 yds to the Richm 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
70.8%
MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Richm 22Similar
Q2 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 22
0
70.5%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
Q2 4:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
0
70.3%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Wes BrownSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
+10
68.0%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for 10 yds to the Richm 12Similar
Q2 4:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
71.9%
Brad Craddock 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:0529% → 27%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.3%
Jacobi Green run for 3 yds to the Richm 28Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
70.9%
Kyle Lauletta run for a loss of 6 yards to the Richm 22Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-3
72.0%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Jacobi Green for a loss of 3 yards to the Richm 19Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+27
72.7%
D.J. Helkowski punt for 44 yds , William Likely returns for 27 yds to the Richm 46 MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Richm 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 0:4074% → 81%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
74.1%
Perry Hills pass complete to Avery Edwards for 4 yds to the Richm 42Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+8
74.1%
Perry Hills pass complete to Avery Edwards for 8 yds to the Richm 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
74.7%
Perry Hills pass complete to Wes Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the Richm 37Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+37
80.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to Malcolm Culmer for 37 yds for a TD (Brad Craddock PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 12END OF HALF
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:2921% → 21%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.3%
Jacobi Green run for 3 yds to the Richm 28Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
78.9%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Porter Abell for 5 yds to the Richm 33Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
78.7%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Jacobi Green for 4 yds to the Richm 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
78.3%
Kyle Lauletta pass incomplete to Brian BrownSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-9
78.7%
Kyle Lauletta sacked by Quinton Jefferson for a loss of 9 yards to the Richm 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0020% → 19%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.9%
Kyle Lauletta pass incomplete to Brian BrownSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
80.0%
Kyle Lauletta pass incomplete to Reggie DiggsSimilar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.8%
Kyle Lauletta run for 3 yds to the Richm 28Similar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+19
81.2%
D.J. Helkowski punt for 55 yds , William Likely returns for 19 yds to the Mary 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:2682% → 89%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
81.9%
Brandon Ross run for 8 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+20
82.7%
Brandon Ross run for 20 yds to the Richm 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
82.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 15 yds to the Richm 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
89.0%
Brandon Ross run for 21 yds for a TD (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:5413% → 12%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.1%
Kyle Lauletta pass incomplete to Reggie DiggsSimilar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.3%
Kyle Lauletta run for 1 yd to the Richm 26Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+25
87.6%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Reggie Diggs for 25 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
86.0%
Kyle Lauletta pass incomplete to Brian BrownSimilar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
86.7%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Reggie Diggs for 7 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-8
86.5%
Kyle Lauletta sacked by Quinton Jefferson for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 11
50
0
88.3%
D.J. Helkowski punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0690% → 89%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
89.9%
Wes Brown run for 3 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
90.0%
Wes Brown run for 3 yds to the Mary 26Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
89.7%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
89.4%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 43 yds, downed at the Richm 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:4412% → 10%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
88.1%
Seth Fisher run for 2 yds to the Richm 33Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-10
88.9%
RICHMOND Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Richm 23Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 18
OWN 23
0
89.8%
Kyle Lauletta pass incomplete to Brian BrownSimilar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 18
OWN 23
-3
90.1%
Kyle Lauletta sacked by Jesse Aniebonam for a loss of 3 yards to the Richm 20Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 21
OWN 20
+47
90.3%
D.J. Helkowski punt for 43 yds , William Likely returns for 47 yds to the Richm 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5193% → 93%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
93.0%
Brandon Ross run for 1 yd to the Richm 15Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+3
93.3%
Brandon Ross run for 3 yds to the Richm 12Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+3
93.6%
Perry Hills run for 3 yds to the Richm 9Similar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+28
93.0%
Brad Craddock 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:369% → 8%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
90.6%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Brian Brown for 5 yds to the Richm 25Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
90.7%
Kyle Lauletta pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
91.8%
Kyle Lauletta pass incomplete to Reggie DiggsSimilar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+1
92.1%
D.J. Helkowski punt for 33 yds , William Likely returns for 1 yd to the Mary 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:5694% → 99%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
94.0%
Brandon Ross run for 6 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+18
94.2%
Brandon Ross run for 18 yds to the Richm 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
94.4%
Brandon Ross run for 3 yds to the Richm 30Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+12
94.6%
Perry Hills pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 12 yds to the Richm 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
94.7%
Wes Brown run for 4 yds to the Richm 14Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+4
94.6%
Wes Brown run for 4 yds to the Richm 10Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+6
94.7%
Wes Brown run for 6 yds to the Richm 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
94.9%
Wes Brown run for 3 yds to the Richm 1Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.2%
Wes Brown run for no gain to the Richm 1Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Wes Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 21PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:541% → 0%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.7%
Porter Abell run for 7 yds to the Richm 32Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
98.7%
Seth Fisher run for 1 yd to the Richm 33Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
98.8%
Seth Fisher run for 1 yd to the Richm 34Similar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+67
99.9%
D.J. Helkowski punt for 33 yds , William Likely returns for 67 yds for a TD (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.9%
Kyle Lauletta sacked by Sean Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the Richm 22Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
99.9%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Reggie Diggs for 8 yds to the Richm 30Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Kyle Lauletta pass incomplete to Seth FisherSimilar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+35
99.9%
D.J. Helkowski punt for 45 yds , William Likely returns for 35 yds to the Richm 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:54100% → 100%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
99.9%
Ty Johnson run for 7 yds to the Richm 33Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+9
99.9%
Ty Johnson run for 9 yds to the Richm 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Avery EdwardsSimilar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+23
99.9%
Ty Johnson run for 23 yds to the Richm 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
99.9%
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Richm 2Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 24TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:370% → 0%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Dashon Tibbs for 9 yds to the Richm 34Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
99.9%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Dashon Tibbs for 13 yds to the Richm 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
99.9%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Tyler Wilkins for 7 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+22
99.9%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Tyler Wilkins for 22 yds to the Mary 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
99.9%
Kyle Lauletta pass complete to Dashon Tibbs for 8 yds to the Mary 16Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
Seth Fisher run for 16 yds for a TD, (Peter Yoder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25END OF GAME
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:39100% → 100%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
99.9%
Ty Johnson run for 13 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.9%
Ty Johnson run for 4 yds to the Richm 47Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+20
100.0%
Ty Johnson run for 20 yds to the Richm 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
100.0%
Ty Johnson run for 4 yds to the Richm 23Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+2
100.0%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds to the Richm 21Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+9
100.0%
Caleb Rowe run for 9 yds to the Richm 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:00
Perry Hills pass complete to Malcolm Culmer for 37 yds for a TD (Brad Craddock PAT MISSED)
+8.2
TD · Q2 10:35
Kyle Lauletta run for 4 yds for a TD (Peter Yoder KICK)
-6.5
TD · Q3 12:12
Brandon Ross run for 21 yds for a TD (Brad Craddock KICK)
+6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com