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ILST

Illinois State 14 at Iowa 31

IOWA
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadILST aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreILST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:55 · C.J. Beathard run for 2 yds to the IllSt 21 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 109Home team on offense+19.7Pregame prior+9.4Score differential+9.7Garbage-time factor+8.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:29: C.J. Beathard run for 6 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK) — IOWA win probability +1.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:35: Jordan Canzeri run for 5 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK) — IOWA win probability +5.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Marshall Koehn 40 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +1.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:18: LeShun Daniels Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 38 — IOWA win probability +2.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:22: C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 9 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK) — IOWA win probability +5.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ILST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 8:49IOWA 4th & 2 at ILST 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    51.1%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    50.2%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:29ILST 4th & 4 at IOWA 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    46.0%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:17ILST 4th & 17 at ILST 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:05IOWA 4th & 10 at ILST 30, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.0%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    68.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:39ILST 4th & 16 at ILST 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−2.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:01IOWA 4th & 6 at ILST 38, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    69.8%−1.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:37ILST 4th & 14 at IOWA 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00IOWA 4th & 16 at ILST 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−2.0
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00ILST 4th & 4 at ILST 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:18IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:00ILST 4th & 9 at ILST 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−2.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:55IOWA 4th & 1 at ILST 23, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%−2.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    80.4%−8.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00ILST 4th & 4 at IOWA 34, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ILST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:29IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:35IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:22IOWA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:54IOWA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:34ILST Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:49ILST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 7:3174% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
74.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 5 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+6
74.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 6 yds to the Iowa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
74.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+7
74.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for 7 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
74.2%
C.J. Beathard run for 2 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
74.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 27 yds to the IllSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
74.2%
IOWA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the IllSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+15
74.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 15 yds to the IllSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
74.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 6 yds to the IllSt 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+2
74.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 2 yds to the IllSt 14Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
74.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the IllSt 14Similar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+5
72.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 5 yds to the IllSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
73.4%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the IllSt 6Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
75.3%
C.J. Beathard run for 6 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
74.6%
Tre Roberson run for a loss of 2 yards to the IllSt 22Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+15
74.8%
Tre Roberson pass complete to Anthony Warrum for 15 yds to the IllSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
74.4%
Tre Roberson pass incomplete to Christian GibbsSimilar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
74.5%
Marshaun Coprich run for 3 yds to the IllSt 40Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+11
74.4%
Tre Roberson run for 11 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
74.0%
Tre Roberson pass complete to Michael Clements for 7 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 3
OPP 42
-1
73.9%
Marshaun Coprich run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 43Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
74.1%
Tre Roberson pass incomplete to Anthony Warrum, broken up by Greg MabinSimilar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
74.3%
Tre Roberson punt for 42 yds, downed at the Iowa 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3TD
12 plays · 99 yds · 5:3075% → 81%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
74.7%
C.J. Beathard run for 2 yds to the Iowa 3Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+10
74.6%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 10 yds to the Iowa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+18
74.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jacob Hillyer for 18 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
75.0%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jacob HillyerSimilar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+21
74.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for 21 yds to the IllSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
75.9%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the IllSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
75.9%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jacob Hillyer, broken up by David PerkinsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+17
75.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 17 yds to the IllSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
76.1%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 9 yds to the IllSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+17
76.1%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 17 yds to the IllSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
76.1%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the IllSt 5Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
81.1%
Jordan Canzeri run for 5 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 2:1821% → 18%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
79.0%
Tre Roberson sacked by Drew Ott for a loss of 11 yards to the IllSt 14Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+7
79.2%
Tre Roberson pass complete to Marshaun Coprich for 7 yds to the IllSt 21Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+6
79.4%
Tre Roberson sacked by Drew Ott for a loss of 9 yards to the IllSt 18 Tre Roberson fumbled, recovered by IllSt Dan Pawlak , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the IllSt 18Similar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+17
81.7%
Reece Attard punt for 40 yds , Desmond King returns for 17 yds to the IllSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
82.8%
C.J. Beathard run for 4 yds to the IllSt 37Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+7
82.8%
Jordan Canzeri run for 7 yds to the IllSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
82.9%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jordan CanzeriSimilar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
82.8%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
82.5%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jacob Hillyer, broken up by Alex DonnellySimilar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+8
81.8%
Marshall Koehn run for 8 yds to the IllSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
81.9%
Tre Roberson run for no gain to the IllSt 22Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
82.1%
Tre Roberson pass incomplete to Christian GibbsSimilar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-6
82.2%
Tre Roberson sacked by Ben Niemann for a loss of 6 yards to the IllSt 16Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 16
OWN 16
+9
82.4%
Reece Attard punt for 35 yds , Desmond King returns for 9 yds to the IllSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
83.1%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the IllSt 40Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
83.1%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the IllSt 38Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
82.6%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jordan CanzeriSimilar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
82.1%
Dillon Kidd punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 8MISSED FG
17 plays · 47 yds · 4:5217% → 15%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
82.8%
Marshaun Coprich run for a loss of 1 yard to the IllSt 19Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+7
83.1%
Marshaun Coprich run for 7 yds to the IllSt 26Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
82.8%
Tre Roberson pass complete to Marshaun Coprich for 7 yds to the IllSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
82.5%
Brady Tibbits run for 4 yds to the IllSt 37Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+7
82.3%
Marshaun Coprich run for 7 yds to the IllSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
82.2%
Tre Roberson run for 3 yds to the IllSt 47Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-2
81.8%
Tre Roberson sacked by Parker Hesse for a loss of 2 yards to the IllSt 45Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+11
82.6%
[SG], Roberson,Tre pass incomplete to Warrum,Anthony, PENALTY IOWA pass interference (Mabin, Greg) 11 yards to the IOWA44, 1ST DOWN ILS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
81.5%
Tre Roberson pass incomplete to Anthony WarrumSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
82.0%
[SG], Roberson,Tre pass incomplete to Clements,Mike, PENALTY IOWA pass interference (Lomax, Jordan) 15 yards to the IOWA29, 1ST DOWN ILS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
80.5%
Tre Roberson pass incomplete to Anthony WarrumSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
80.9%
Tre Roberson pass incomplete to Anthony Warrum, broken up by Maurice FlemingSimilar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-9
81.8%
Tre Roberson sacked by Nate Meier for a loss of 9 yards to the Iowa 38Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 19
OPP 38
+5
83.7%
[SG], PENALTY IOWA substitution infraction 5 yards to the IOWA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+50
85.5%
Sean Slattery 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Nathan BazataSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 0:3788% → 88%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+51
87.5%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for 51 yds to the IllSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
88.4%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
88.4%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jordan CanzeriSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 10
OPP 16
-15
87.5%
[SG], Beathard, C.J. pass incomplete to Hillyer, Jacob, PENALTY IOWA personal foul (Welsh, Sean) 15 yards to the ILS31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 25
OPP 31
+9
87.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 9 yds to the IllSt 22Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 16
OPP 22
+40
87.7%
Marshall Koehn 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.5%
Marshaun Coprich run for 2 yds to the IllSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
87.5%
Marshaun Coprich run for 3 yds to the IllSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
87.3%
Tre Roberson run for 7 yds to the IllSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
87.0%
Tre Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-2
87.2%
Marshaun Coprich run for a loss of 2 yards to the IllSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-5
87.8%
ILLINOIS ST Penalty, false start (Dan Pawlak) to the IllSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+13
88.0%
Tre Roberson pass complete to Marshaun Coprich for 13 yds to the IllSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
87.4%
Reece Attard punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
90.1%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 38Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+6
90.0%
C.J. Beathard run for 6 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
89.8%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jordan CanzeriSimilar
Q3 11:18
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
89.3%
Dillon Kidd punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
90.0%
Tre Roberson run for 4 yds to the IllSt 24Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
89.8%
Marshaun Coprich run for 1 yd to the IllSt 25Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-5
90.2%
ILLINOIS ST Penalty, false start (Christian Gibbs) to the IllSt 20Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+1
90.4%
Marshaun Coprich run for 1 yd to the IllSt 21Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
90.4%
Reece Attard punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13TD
13 plays · 57 yds · 6:3393% → 98%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
93.1%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 3
50
+2
93.1%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the IllSt 48Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+5
92.9%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 5 yds to the IllSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
93.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the IllSt 43Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+11
93.1%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for 11 yds to the IllSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
93.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the IllSt 30Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+4
93.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 4 yds to the IllSt 26Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+3
93.0%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the IllSt 23Similar
Q3 7:55
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
92.5%
C.J. Beathard run for 2 yds to the IllSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
93.2%
Jordan Canzeri run for 6 yds to the IllSt 15Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+3
93.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the IllSt 12Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+3
93.0%
C.J. Beathard run for 3 yds to the IllSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.3%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 9 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 1:222% → 2%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.0%
Marshaun Coprich run for 7 yds to the IllSt 32Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
97.9%
Tre Roberson run for 2 yds to the IllSt 34Similar
Q3 1:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
97.9%
Marshaun Coprich run for 5 yds to the IllSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
98.2%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Anthony Warrum for 21 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
98.2%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Marshaun Coprich for 6 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
97.9%
Marshaun Coprich run for no gain to the Iowa 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
98.1%
Jake Kolbe pass incomplete to Anthony Warrum, broken up by Greg MabinSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 34
0
98.2%
Jake Kolbe pass incomplete to Jake KolbeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 5:2099% → 100%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
98.7%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 14 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
98.8%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jacob Hillyer for 20 yds to the IllSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
98.8%
Jordan Canzeri run for 9 yds to the IllSt 23Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+5
98.8%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 5 yds to the IllSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
98.8%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 5 yds to the IllSt 13Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
98.8%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the IllSt 10Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+4
98.7%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the IllSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
98.8%
Jordan Canzeri run for 1 yd to the IllSt 5Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
98.8%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the IllSt 1Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
C.J. Beathard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 16TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:200% → 1%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
99.9%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Jamal Towns for 1 yd to the IllSt 28Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Jamal Towns run for 2 yds to the IllSt 30Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+52
99.9%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Christian Gibbs for 52 yds to the Iowa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
99.9%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Anthony Fowler for 17 yds to the Iowa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.2%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Brady Tibbits for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Slattery KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0099% → 100%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.4%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 26Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
99.4%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Jameer Outsey for 10 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
99.4%
Akrum Wadley run for 13 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
99.5%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the IllSt 48 Akrum Wadley fumbled, forced by David Kenney, recovered by IllSt Matt SwaineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 18TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:531% → 2%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
99.5%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Michael Clements for 9 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+3
99.4%
George Moreira run for 3 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.4%
Jake Kolbe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
99.4%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Tylor Petkovich for 7 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+8
99.4%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Matt Biegalski for 8 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.3%
Jake Kolbe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.4%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Brannon Barry for 3 yds to the Iowa 22Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+22
97.9%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Anthony Warrum for 22 yds for a TD, (Sean Slattery KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19END OF GAME
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.8%
Marcel Joly run for 8 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:22
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 9 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)
+5.3
TD · Q2 12:35
Jordan Canzeri run for 5 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)
+5
KEY PLAY · Q3 11:18
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 38
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com