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MSU

Michigan State 37 at Western Michigan 24

WMU
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2015 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:56 · J. Schroeder punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Pregame prior−36.7Home team on offense−6.2Score differential−2.2Garbage-time factor−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:00: Gerald Holmes run for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:40: Connor Cook pass incomplete to Paul Lang — MSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:42: Timeout WESTRN MICHIGAN, clock 01:42 — WMU win probability +5.8 pts (now 8%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:20: Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey Davis — WMU win probability +10.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 7:55: Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron Burbridge — MSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:46WMU 4th & 4 at MSU 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.8%−<0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:51MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:05WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 21, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:56WMU 4th & 7 at MSU 48, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:37WMU 4th & 10 at MSU 39, down 13
    Close callPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:46WMU 4th & 3 at MSU 3, down 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.2%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:21WMU 4th & 5 at MSU 27, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:40MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 46, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:09MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:56WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:07MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:24MSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:00MSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1MISSED FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:028% → 9%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
8.1%
Zach Terrell run for no gain to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
8.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 31Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+7
8.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 7 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q1 12:46
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+41
8.9%
Andrew Haldeman 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:5591% → 90%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
8.8%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
9.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+19
9.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 19 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
9.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 15
OWN 39
0
9.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aj TroupSimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+5
9.4%
R.J. Shelton run for 5 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
9.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
9.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:0810% → 10%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
9.6%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 13Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+4
9.9%
Zach Terrell run for 4 yds to the WMich 17Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
10.0%
Zach Terrell pass intercepted Montae Nicholson return for no gain to the WMich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:3490% → 91%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
9.8%
R.J. Shelton run for 3 yds to the WMich 24Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
9.3%
Madre London run for 24 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:3890% → 89%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
10.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 20 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
10.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
10.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 7 yds to the WMich 36Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
10.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
10.8%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 35Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
11.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Gerald Holmes for no gain to the WMich 35Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+20
11.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 20 yds to the WMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
11.3%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ronald Zamort) to the WMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
10.6%
Madre London 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0211% → 11%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
10.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the WMich 18Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-3
11.2%
Zach Terrell sacked by Joel Heath for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 15Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+6
11.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 6 yds to the WMich 21Similar
Q1 3:05
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
11.3%
J. Schroeder punt for 52 yds, downed at the MchSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 1:4189% → 91%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
11.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aj TroupSimilar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
11.8%
Lj Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+56
11.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 56 yds to the WMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
11.3%
Lj Scott run for 5 yds to the WMich 9Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
11.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
9.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:2810% → 11%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
10.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 11 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
10.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+6
10.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 6 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+7
10.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 7 yds to the WMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
10.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 4
OPP 45
-3
10.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
10.8%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Fabian Johnson WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chukwuma Okorafor) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
10.7%
J. Schroeder punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:5390% → 90%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
10.3%
Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 14Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+15
10.4%
Cook, Connor pass incomplete to Burbridge, Aaron, PENALTY WESTMICH pass interference (Zamort, Ronald) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
10.3%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+10
10.3%
Cook, Connor pass sacked for loss of 4 yards to the MICHIGANST27 (Braster, Nathan), PENALTY WESTMICH holding (Zamort, Ronald) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
10.1%
R.J. Shelton run for 3 yds to the MchSt 39 R.J. Shelton fumbled, forced by Keion Adams, recovered by WMich Rontavious AtkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2611% → 11%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
11.3%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
11.3%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
11.2%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Michael HenrySimilar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
11.0%
J. Schroeder punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:3789% → 94%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
10.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 25 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
10.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 15 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
10.2%
Gerald Holmes run for 9 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+7
10.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 7 yds to the WMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
10.1%
Damion Terry run for 2 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
10.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+14
10.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aj Troup for 14 yds to the WMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
5.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13FG
14 plays · 88 yds · 5:048% → 10%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
7.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 11Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 11
-5
7.3%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (John Keenoy) to the WMich 6Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 13
OWN 6
-2
7.2%
Zach Terrell sacked by Riley Bullough for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 4Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 15
OWN 4
+44
7.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 44 yds to the WMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
7.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
7.9%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Kendrick RobertsSimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+11
7.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 11 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
7.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 13 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
8.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 20 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
8.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the MchSt 3Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
8.0%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Jarvion FranklinSimilar
Q2 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
7.9%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q2 2:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+22
9.9%
Andrew Haldeman 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:4592% → 93%
Q2 2:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
7.6%
Lj Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
6.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
6.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
7.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:509% → 8%
Q2 0:50
2ND & 12
OWN 24
0
8.9%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+23
8.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 23 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
9.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 5 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 15
OWN 42
-15
8.8%
Terrell, Zach pass complete to Braverman, Daniel for 18 yards to the MICHIGANST40, PENALTY WESTMICH personal foul (Okorafor, Chukwuma) 15 yards to the WESTMICH27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 30
OWN 27
+5
8.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 5 yds to the WMich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3592% → 97%
Q3 14:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
7.9%
Madre London run for 5 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
7.8%
Madre London run for 5 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
7.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+6
7.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 6 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
7.4%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
7.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+15
7.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to DeAnthony Arnett for 15 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
7.1%
Madre London run for 7 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+1
6.9%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the WMich 28Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+7
7.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 7 yds to the WMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
2.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Paul LangSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 7:353% → 3%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
3.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 11 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
3.4%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
3.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+15
3.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 15 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
3.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 5 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 5
OPP 41
-4
3.5%
Zach Terrell sacked by Riley Bullough for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+13
3.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 13 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-15
3.4%
Terrell, Zach pass complete to Davis, Corey for 8 yards to the MICHIGANST24, PENALTY WESTMICH personal foul (Okorafor, Chukwuma) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 25
OPP 47
+3
3.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jamauri Bogan for 3 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 22
OPP 44
+1
3.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 1 yd to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 21
OPP 43
+16
2.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 16 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+7
2.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 7 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
2.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
2.9%
LeVante Bellamy run for no gain to the MchSt 15Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+3
2.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Fabian Johnson for 3 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q3 1:50
4TH & 2
OPP 12
-5
2.6%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Willie Beavers) to the MchSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3595% → 95%
Q3 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
5.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 14 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
4.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
4.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
4.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
4.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:206% → 16%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
6.4%
Zach Terrell sacked by Riley Bullough for a loss of 9 yards to the WMich 11Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+21
5.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jamauri Bogan for 6 yds to the WMich 17 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Montae Nicholson) to the WMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+26
5.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 26 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
5.9%
LeVante Bellamy run for 8 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+1
6.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 1 yd to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+4
5.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
15.6%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20FG
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:1488% → 96%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
12.0%
Lj Scott run for 17 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+28
10.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 28 yds to the WMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
9.0%
Lj Scott run for 8 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+4
8.7%
Lj Scott run for 4 yds to the WMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
8.7%
Lj Scott run for 10 yds to the WMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
8.7%
Lj Scott run for 4 yds to the WMich 4Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
8.5%
Lj Scott run for no gain to the WMich 4Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
4.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21PUNT
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:157% → 7%
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-9
6.9%
Zach Terrell sacked by Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 9 yards to the WMich 16Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
6.7%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey Davis WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:4596% → 96%
Q4 6:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-6
4.0%
Madre London run for a loss of 6 yards to the WMich 48Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
4.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aj TroupSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23INT
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:095% → 5%
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+12
5.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 12 yds to the WMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
5.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 18 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
5.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 7 yds to the WMich 47Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
4.9%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+11
4.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 11 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
5.0%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
4.8%
Terrell, Zach pass incomplete to Davis, Corey, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Williamson, Rj) 5 yards to the MICHIGANST37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTMICH.Similar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
4.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 15 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
6.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 2 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+13
5.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 13 yds to the MchSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
5.3%
Zach Terrell pass intercepted, touchback. Vayante Copeland return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:5698% → 98%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
2.5%
Lj Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 21Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
2.4%
Lj Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+11
2.3%
Lj Scott run for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:20
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey Davis
+10.1
TD · Q3 1:42
Timeout WESTRN MICHIGAN, clock 01:42
+5.8
TD · Q2 8:00
Gerald Holmes run for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
-4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com