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TEX

Texas 23 at Baylor 17

BAY
2015 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2015 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of GameFG—BAY 85.1%Nick Rose 23 Yd Field GoalAWAY 10 - HOME 0 · Q1 5:45
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:45 · Nick Rose 23 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior+35.6Home team on offense−2.7Score differential−1.4Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:11: Tyrone Swoopes 9 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick) — TEX win probability +5.3 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:01: Nick Rose 53 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +5.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:27: Johnny Jefferson run for 20 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +18.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:40: Lynx Hawthorne run for 8 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +26.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. FG · Q4 3:59: Nick Rose 37 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +10.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 10 of 11TEX made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 12:20BAY 4th & 1 at TEX 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.7%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:59BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:45TEX 4th & 5 at BAY 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:54BAY 4th & 19 at BAY 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:21TEX 4th & 12 at TEX 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:59TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 27, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:11BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:53TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 33, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:45TEX 4th & 14 at BAY 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:29BAY 4th & 6 at TEX 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−4.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:01TEX 4th & 5 at BAY 35, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.5%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:17BAY 4th & 7 at TEX 37, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.9%
    40% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:14TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 30, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:41TEX 4th & 3 at BAY 42, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    54.8%−4.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%−2.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:35BAY 4th & 1 at TEX 45, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    36.7%−4.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−2.9
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:33BAY 4th & 7 at TEX 7, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−7.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:03TEX 4th & 1 at BAY 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    59.2%−5.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−4.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:59TEX 4th & 3 at BAY 19, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.5%−2.9
    77% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−24.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:31BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.4%−5.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:24TEX 4th & 13 at BAY 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    88.1%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:40BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−5.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:00BAY 4th & 11 at TEX 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.3%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:27TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:11TEX Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:27BAY Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:40BAY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:3590% → 90%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
90.1%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Corey Coleman for 1 yd to the Bayl 26 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 16Similar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+5
90.0%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+15
89.9%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Corey Coleman for 15 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
89.9%
Corey Coleman run for 8 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+17
89.8%
Chris Johnson run for 17 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
89.7%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Texas 38Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+8
89.7%
Shock Linwood run for 8 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
89.6%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 12:20
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
89.5%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Texas 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:4511% → 12%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
89.3%
Chris Warren III run for 8 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+5
89.2%
Chris Warren III run for 5 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
88.5%
Caleb Bluiett 57 Yd pass from Tyrone Swoopes (Nick Rose Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2189% → 88%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
88.4%
Johnny Jefferson run for no gain to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
88.2%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Johnny Jefferson for 4 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
87.9%
Drew Galitz punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Daje Johnson at the Texas 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 4:0012% → 15%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
87.7%
Chris Warren III run for 5 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
87.4%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Burt for 6 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Marcus JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+24
87.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Daje Johnson for 24 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
86.6%
Chris Warren III run for 5 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 5
OPP 26
-1
86.4%
Chris Warren III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 27Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+18
85.9%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 18 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
85.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
85.5%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 4 yds to the Bayl 5Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
85.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q1 5:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
85.1%
Nick Rose 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 4 yds · 1:4385% → 84%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
85.4%
Chris Johnson run for 8 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
85.4%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
85.2%
Chris Johnson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
85.2%
LaQuan McGowan run for 2 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-10
84.8%
Johnson, Chris rush for 12 yards to the TEXAS44, PENALTY BAYLOR holding (Fuller, Kyle) 10 yards to the BAYLOR34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
84.3%
Lynx Hawthorne pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 14
OWN 34
-5
84.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Raaquan Davis) to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 19
OWN 29
0
84.2%
Drew Galitz punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Daje Johnson at the Texas 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2816% → 17%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
84.1%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Caleb BluiettSimilar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
84.1%
Jerrod Heard run for 7 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-9
83.4%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Andrew Billings for a loss of 9 yards to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
83.3%
Michael Dickson punt for 48 yds, downed at the Bayl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:1283% → 82%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
82.5%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-4
82.3%
Chris Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 18 Chris Johnson fumbled, forced by P.J. Locke III, recovered by Texas Anthony WheelerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:3818% → 24%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
82.0%
Chris Warren III run for 1 yd to the Bayl 17Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+8
81.7%
Chris Warren III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Beau Blackshear) to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
76.4%
Tyrone Swoopes 9 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9INT
4 plays · 33 yds · 0:3477% → 77%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
77.2%
Shock Linwood run for 16 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
77.6%
Lynx Hawthorne run for 17 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+45
77.2%
Lynx Hawthorne pass intercepted Duke Thomas return for 30 yds to the Texas 12 TEXAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kevin Vaccaro) to the Texas 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0625% → 26%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.5%
Chris Warren III run for no gain to the Texas 25Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.2%
Jerrod Heard run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
73.7%
Jerrod Heard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
73.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Corey Coleman at the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:2974% → 72%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
74.3%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-5
73.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Jarell Broxton) to the Bayl 25Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 14
OWN 25
0
73.4%
Lynx Hawthorne pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+11
73.0%
Lynx Hawthorne run for 11 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 3
OWN 36
-5
72.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+2
72.0%
Drew Galitz punt for 42 yds , Daje Johnson returns for 2 yds to the Texas 29 Daje Johnson fumbled, recovered by Texas Jake OliverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0730% → 32%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
69.6%
Chris Warren III run for no gain to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
69.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Chris Warren III for 4 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
68.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
68.3%
Michael Dickson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Corey Coleman at the Bayl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1670% → 68%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
69.9%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-5
69.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Corey Coleman) to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+2
68.7%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+27
67.7%
Lynx Hawthorne pass intercepted Jason Hall return for 17 yds to the Bayl 46 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (P.J. Locke III) to the Bayl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14MISSED FG
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:3536% → 36%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
64.1%
Chris Warren III run for 9 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+2
63.4%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
63.1%
Chris Warren III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+2
62.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Ryan Newsome for 2 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
63.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Ryan NewsomeSimilar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 9
OPP 30
-5
64.2%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 14
OPP 35
+30
63.8%
Nick Rose 53 yd FG RETURNED , Orion Stewart return for 30 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15MISSED FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:1066% → 64%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
65.9%
Lynx Hawthorne run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+15
65.4%
Hawthorne, Lynx pass incomplete to Coleman, Corey, PENALTY TEXAS personal foul (Hill, Holton) 15 yards to the BAYLOR44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
66.4%
Johnny Jefferson run for 13 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
66.4%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+6
66.1%
Lynx Hawthorne run for 6 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+7
65.9%
Devin Chafin run for 7 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
66.2%
Lynx Hawthorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+9
65.6%
Devin Chafin run for 9 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 1
OPP 18
-5
64.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Kyle Fuller) to the Texas 23Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
64.6%
Lynx Hawthorne pass incomplete to Devin ChafinSimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
63.7%
Chris Callahan 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:1442% → 56%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+26
57.9%
Chris Warren III run for 26 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
56.3%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 3 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+8
55.1%
Chris Warren III run for 8 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
54.1%
Chris Warren III run for 1 yd to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
52.5%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Burt for no gain to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+5
51.9%
Swoopes, Tyrone pass incomplete to Johnson, Daje, PENALTY BAYLOR offside (Palmer, Jamal) 5 yards to the BAYLOR34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-1
49.6%
Tyrone Swoopes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+53
44.5%
Nick Rose 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17MISSED FG
14 plays · 38 yds · 1:2849% → 44%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
48.5%
Lynx Hawthorne pass complete to Corey Coleman for 8 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
48.9%
Lynx Hawthorne pass complete to KD Cannon for 3 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
48.8%
Lynx Hawthorne run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+10
48.5%
Lynx Hawthorne pass complete to KD Cannon for 10 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
49.3%
Lynx Hawthorne pass complete to Corey Coleman for 1 yd to the Bayl 49Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
49.0%
Lynx Hawthorne pass incomplete to Davion HallSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+11
48.0%
Devin Chafin run for 11 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
49.0%
Lynx Hawthorne pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
48.5%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
45.9%
Lynx Hawthorne pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+54
43.9%
Spencer Evans 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
33.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2860% → 62%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.9%
Chris Warren III run for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
38.6%
Chris Warren III run for 1 yd to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
39.7%
Tyrone Swoopes run for no gain to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
37.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Corey Coleman at the Bayl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:4143% → 55%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
42.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 11 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
39.5%
Johnny Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+5
39.7%
Johnny Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
38.5%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+8
36.0%
Terence Williams run for 8 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
35.4%
Terence Williams run for 9 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+2
36.2%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
54.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 20 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:3254% → 57%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
45.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Daje Johnson for 11 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
44.7%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Daje Johnson for 16 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
41.9%
Chris Warren III run for 1 yd to the Bayl 48Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
40.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Andrew BeckSimilar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+6
40.8%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 6 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 8:41
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
42.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 31 yds, downed at the Bayl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22FG
19 plays · 82 yds · 8:0247% → 37%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
46.8%
Lynx Hawthorne pass complete to Corey Coleman for 6 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+7
45.5%
Johnny Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
44.7%
Lynx Hawthorne pass complete to Corey Coleman for 6 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+6
44.7%
Johnny Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
44.2%
Lynx Hawthorne pass complete to Jay Lee for 5 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
44.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+2
43.3%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
42.9%
Lynx Hawthorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
41.7%
Terence Williams run for 8 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
41.4%
Johnny Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Texas 45Similar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+10
40.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for 10 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
42.5%
Lynx Hawthorne pass complete to Corey Coleman for 12 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
42.2%
Corey Coleman run for 2 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+7
41.4%
Lynx Hawthorne run for 7 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+5
38.7%
Jefferson, Johnny rush for 2 yards to the TEXAS12, PENALTY TEXAS offside 5 yards to the TEXAS9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q3 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
38.5%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Texas 8Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
38.1%
Lynx Hawthorne run for 2 yds to the Texas 6Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
34.8%
Terence Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 7Similar
Q3 0:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
36.6%
Chris Callahan 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1067% → 64%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
32.9%
Chris Warren III run for 1 yd to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
32.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:36
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+8
33.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Burt for 8 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
36.0%
Tyrone Swoopes run for no gain to the Bayl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 4:1736% → 57%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
35.7%
Johnny Jefferson run for 13 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
37.7%
Johnny Jefferson run for 10 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
36.7%
Johnny Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+5
38.1%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
35.7%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+11
34.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 11 yds to the Texas 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
34.4%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Texas 10Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+2
30.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
56.8%
Lynx Hawthorne run for 8 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 5:2256% → 84%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
44.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Burt for 7 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
41.9%
Chris Warren III run for no gain to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+10
42.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Andrew Beck for 10 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
39.6%
Chris Warren III run for 12 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
36.8%
Chris Warren III run for 5 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+3
34.1%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+6
32.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Andrew Beck for 6 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
29.0%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 12 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
26.6%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 1 yd to the Bayl 25Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
25.5%
Chris Warren III run for no gain to the Bayl 25Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+6
26.3%
Chris Warren III run for 6 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
15.9%
Nick Rose 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26FUMBLE
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:2426% → 22%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.6%
Lynx Hawthorne pass incomplete to Johnny JeffersonSimilar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
24.1%
Johnny Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+12
22.4%
Johnny Jefferson run for 12 yds to the Bayl 43 Johnny Jefferson fumbled, forced by Poona Ford, recovered by Texas Poona FordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 1:0189% → 94%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
10.9%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+1
8.6%
Chris Warren III run for 1 yd to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 6
OPP 39
-5
9.3%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (John Burt) to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+3
9.3%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 8
OPP 41
-5
6.2%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
6.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 42 yds, downed at the Bayl 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28DOWNS
11 plays · 49 yds · 1:2012% → 10%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
12.0%
Lynx Hawthorne pass complete to KD Cannon for 8 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 2
OWN 12
+30
12.5%
Lynx Hawthorne run for 30 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-16
13.9%
Lynx Hawthorne sacked by TEAM for a loss of 16 yards to the Bayl 26 BAYLOR Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Lynx Hawthorne) to the Bayl 26Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 26
OWN 26
+24
12.3%
Corey Coleman run for 24 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 2
50
-1
13.6%
Terence Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 3
OWN 49
+5
12.0%
Lynx Hawthorne pass complete to KD Cannon for 5 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
13.7%
Jay Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 47Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
11.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
11.1%
Lynx Hawthorne pass incomplete to Davion HallSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
9.6%
Johnny Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:40
Lynx Hawthorne run for 8 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+26.8
TD · Q3 10:27
Johnny Jefferson run for 20 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+18.6
FG · Q4 3:59
Nick Rose 37 yd FG GOOD
-10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com