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Oklahoma 58 at Oklahoma State 23

OKST
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+4.2OKST 11.9%Ben Grogan 21 yd FG GOODAWAY 44 - HOME 23 · Q3 8:46
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:46 · Ben Grogan 21 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Home team on offense−25.9Score differential−14.2Pregame prior−6.0Garbage-time factor−6.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:49: Joe Mixon 66 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick) — OU win probability +5.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:25: Dimitri Flowers 5 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick) — OU win probability +9.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:41: James Washington 72 Yd pass from J.W. Walsh (Ben Grogan Kick) — OKST win probability +8.3 pts (now 24%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:14: Samaje Perine 25 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick) — OU win probability +5.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:00: Ben Grogan 36 Yd Field Goal — OKST win probability +10.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 12:34OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:13OU 4th & 13 at OKST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:49OKST 4th & 6 at OU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:20OU 4th & 1 at OU 32, down 3
    Close callPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:15OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:10OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 34, down 4
    Close callPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:17OKST 4th & 10 at OU 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:14OU 4th & 3 at OKST 22, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.3%−<0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:22OKST 4th & 3 at OKST 46, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:38OU 4th & 8 at OU 28, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:46OKST 4th & 4 at OU 4, down 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.8%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−8.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:52OU 4th & 1 at OKST 35, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.9%−1.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−2.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:33OKST 4th & 8 at OU 21, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:36OU 4th & 7 at OKST 46, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:26OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 19, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2OU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 6:33OU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:36OKST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:04OU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:49OU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:25OU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:59OU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 6:41OKST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 4:14OU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:42OU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:15OU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:1435% → 36%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
35.2%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 10 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
35.3%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Victor Salako) to the OKSt 30Similar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+2
35.5%
J.W. Walsh run for 2 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+3
35.8%
Rennie Childs run for 3 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
35.9%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
35.9%
Zach Sinor punt for 31 yds, downed at the Okla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2MISSED FG
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:0964% → 63%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
36.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jarvis Baxter for 17 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
35.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 22 yds to the OKSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
35.9%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Emmanuel Ogbah for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 30Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 13
OPP 30
0
36.1%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Mark AndrewsSimilar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 13
OPP 30
0
36.4%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Durron NealSimilar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 13
OPP 30
+47
36.7%
Austin Seibert 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 4:1237% → 39%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
36.7%
J.W. Walsh run for 7 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-4
37.3%
J.W. Walsh run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 33Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+23
37.1%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to James Washington for 23 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
38.1%
Chris Carson run for 6 yds to the Okla 38Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+8
38.4%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to James Washington for 8 yds to the Okla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
38.7%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
38.7%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Rennie Childs for 1 yd to the Okla 29Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+3
38.7%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jeff Carr for 3 yds to the Okla 26Similar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+43
39.4%
Ben Grogan 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
36.0%
Sterling Shepard 4 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:4037% → 42%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
36.9%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 13 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
37.7%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Austin Hays for 19 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
38.2%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 2 yds to the Okla 36Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+10
38.4%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 10 yds to the Okla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
41.5%
Jhajuan Seales 26 Yd pass from J.W. Walsh (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0359% → 59%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
40.6%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 24Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
40.9%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+8
41.4%
Baker Mayfield run for 8 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
41.5%
Austin Seibert punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5741% → 40%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
40.8%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
40.8%
Chris Carson run for 5 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
40.3%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+2
39.8%
Zach Sinor punt for 44 yds , Sterling Shepard returns for 2 yds to the Okla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
36.9%
Samaje Perine 68 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5037% → 37%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
37.4%
Raymond Taylor run for 1 yd to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
37.4%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to James Washington for 7 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
38.1%
J.W. Walsh run for 1 yd to the OKSt 34Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
37.3%
Zach Sinor punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:1262% → 68%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
37.6%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+3
37.2%
Baker Mayfield run for 3 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+3
37.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 3 yds to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
31.8%
Joe Mixon 66 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:2032% → 31%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
31.9%
Rennie Childs run for 2 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+10
31.8%
Walsh, J.W. pass incomplete to Seales, Jhajuan (TEAM), PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference (Sanchez, Zack) 10 yards to the OKLAST41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST, QB hurry by TEAM, QB hit by TEAM.Similar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
32.2%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 3 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+8
32.3%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 8 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
32.8%
J.W. Walsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
32.5%
Jeff Carr run for no gain to the Okla 48Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
31.9%
J.W. Walsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
31.1%
Zach Sinor punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:4069% → 82%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
30.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 14 yds to the Okla 34 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Durron Neal) to the Okla 24Similar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 6
OWN 24
-1
29.9%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Seth Jacobs for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 23Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+17
30.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 17 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
29.3%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+10
29.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 10 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
29.1%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
28.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Durron NealSimilar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+11
29.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 11 yds to the OKSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
28.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jarvis Baxter for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 31Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 12
OPP 31
0
28.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Durron NealSimilar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+26
28.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 26 yds to the OKSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
18.7%
Dimitri Flowers 5 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
18.4%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (P.L. Lindley) to the OKSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13INT TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1323% → 18%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
22.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+32
17.5%
Jordan Thomas 32 Yd Interception Return (Austin Seibert PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
23.6%
James Washington 72 Yd pass from J.W. Walsh (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:1380% → 87%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
20.3%
Baker Mayfield run for 13 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
19.5%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the Okla 48Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
19.4%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+9
19.3%
Baker Mayfield run for 9 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
18.7%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+10
18.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 10 yds to the OKSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
12.6%
Samaje Perine 25 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:3316% → 16%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
16.0%
Raymond Taylor run for 4 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+36
15.8%
J.W. Walsh pass intercepted Jordan Thomas return for 36 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4288% → 88%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
12.0%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the OKSt 28Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+4
12.3%
Baker Mayfield run for 4 yds to the OKSt 24Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+2
10.8%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+40
12.5%
Austin Seibert 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18END OF HALF
14 plays · 56 yds · 1:008% → 16%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
8.0%
J.W. Walsh run for 5 yds to the OKSt 30 J.W. Walsh fumbled, recovered by OKSt J.W. WalshSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
7.6%
J.W. Walsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
7.4%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to David Glidden for 9 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
8.0%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to David Glidden for 7 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
7.7%
J.W. Walsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
7.4%
J.W. Walsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+21
7.0%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to James Washington for 21 yds to the Okla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
8.4%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to David Glidden for 8 yds to the Okla 25Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 2
OPP 25
0
8.0%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+6
7.7%
J.W. Walsh run for 6 yds to the Okla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+36
16.1%
Ben Grogan 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4889% → 89%
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
10.6%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 27Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+1
10.0%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 28Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
10.6%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Sterling ShepardSimilar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
10.8%
Austin Seibert punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:3412% → 12%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
12.2%
J.W. Walsh run for 8 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 34
-1
12.5%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+10
9.9%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to James Washington for 10 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
9.5%
Chris Carson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+25
9.5%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 25 yds to the Okla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
10.0%
Chris Carson run for 11 yds to the Okla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
9.1%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the Okla 16 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Face Mask (8 yards) (Steven Parker) to the Okla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
8.6%
J.W. Walsh run for 5 yds to the Okla 3Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
8.0%
J.W. Walsh run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 4Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
7.7%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to Brandon SheperdSimilar
Q3 8:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
11.9%
Ben Grogan 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 3:5293% → 99%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
7.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 17 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
6.5%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Okla 47Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+9
6.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 9 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
6.5%
Joe Mixon run for 9 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 1
OPP 35
0
5.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for no gain to the OKSt 35Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
4.3%
Joe Mixon run for no gain to the OKSt 35Similar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+27
4.6%
Baker Mayfield run for 27 yds to the OKSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
3.8%
Joe Mixon run for 3 yds to the OKSt 5Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
3.7%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
1.5%
Baker Mayfield 5 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22DOWNS
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:574% → 2%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
3.8%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to Chris CarsonSimilar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
2.1%
J.W. Walsh run for 5 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+13
2.0%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 13 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
1.9%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 42Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+7
1.8%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Chris Carson for 7 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+28
1.8%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to James Washington for 28 yds to the Okla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
2.1%
J.W. Walsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
2.0%
Chris Carson run for 6 yds to the Okla 17Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 4
OPP 17
-4
1.9%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Chris Carson for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 21Similar
Q3 0:33
4TH & 8
OPP 21
0
1.7%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to Austin HaysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:4999% → 99%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
0.9%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 21Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+14
0.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 14 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
0.7%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
0.6%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Okla 42Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+9
0.7%
Baker Mayfield run for 9 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
0.6%
Samaje Perine run for no gain to the OKSt 49Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
0.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 3 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
0.6%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Sterling ShepardSimilar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
0.6%
Austin Seibert punt for 43 yds, downed at the OKSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
0.3%
J.W. Walsh run for 5 yds to the OKSt 8Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+11
0.3%
J.W. Walsh run for 11 yds to the OKSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
0.2%
Jeff Carr run for no gain to the OKSt 19Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
0.2%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
0.2%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q4 8:26
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
0.2%
Zach Sinor punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 6:01100% → 100%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
0.4%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 35Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+7
0.3%
Joe Mixon run for 7 yds to the Okla 42Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+5
0.3%
Mayfield, Baker pass incomplete to Westbrook, Dede, PENALTY OKLAST offside 5 yards to the OKLAHOMA47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
0.3%
Joe Mixon run for 12 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
0.2%
Joe Mixon run for 6 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+3
0.2%
Joe Mixon run for 3 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
0.2%
Baker Mayfield run for 3 yds to the OKSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
0.2%
Joe Mixon run for 15 yds to the OKSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
0.2%
Joe Mixon run for 6 yds to the OKSt 8Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+2
0.2%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the OKSt 6Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
0.2%
Joe Mixon run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
0.1%
Rennie Childs run for 7 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+21
0.1%
Raymond Taylor run for 21 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
0.1%
Chris Carson run for 5 yds to the Okla 46Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+7
0.1%
Rennie Childs run for 7 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:00
Ben Grogan 36 Yd Field Goal
+10.2
TD · Q2 7:25
Dimitri Flowers 5 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)
-9.9
TD · Q2 6:41
James Washington 72 Yd pass from J.W. Walsh (Ben Grogan Kick)
+8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com