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KSU

Kansas State 45 at Kansas 14

KU
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Matthew Wyman run for no gain to the Kans 12 Matthew Wyman fumbled, recovered by Kans Matthew Wyman
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−40.2Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 13:09: Winston Dimel run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK) — KU win probability +0.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 11:15: Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 27 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK) — KU win probability +1.2 pts (now 12%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 1:30: Glenn Gronkowski run for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 9:17: Joe Hubener run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 8:18: Matthew McCrane 33 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +0.4 pts (now 2%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00KU 4th & 8 at KU 25, tied
    Close callWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:30KU 4th & 20 at KU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:07KSU 4th & 18 at KSU 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−0.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:04KU 4th & 11 at KU 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:22KU 4th & 10 at KU 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00KSU 4th & 1 at KU 15, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.2%−0.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:17KSU 4th & 2 at KU 2, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:59KU 4th & 2 at KSU 5, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:55KSU 4th & 9 at KSU 18, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:57KU 4th & 5 at KU 45, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:18KSU 4th & 11 at KU 16, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:13KU 4th & 1 at KSU 9, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:13KU 4th & 5 at KU 35, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:28KSU 4th & 6 at KU 37, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:51KU 4th & 6 at KU 24, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:09KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:15KU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:48KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:30KSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:17KSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:20KSU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:28KU Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KUDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
9.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Ke'aun Kinner for 5 yds to the Kans 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+3
9.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 3 yds to the Kans 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 31
-6
9.8%
Ryan Willis sacked by Jordan Willis for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 25Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
9.8%
Matthew Wyman run for no gain to the Kans 12 Matthew Wyman fumbled, recovered by Kans Matthew WymanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
10.3%
Winston Dimel run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 1:4710% → 12%
Q1 13:02
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+11
10.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 11 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
11.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 27 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:2089% → 89%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
11.4%
Charles Jones run for 6 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+3
11.3%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+5
11.3%
Joe Hubener run for 5 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
11.3%
Charles Jones run for 13 yds to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
11.2%
Joe Hubener run for 1 yd to the Kans 45Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+44
11.2%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Winston Dimel for 44 yds to the Kans 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.4%
Winston Dimel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5PUNT TD
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:1312% → 11%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.8%
Ryan Schadler run for no gain to the Kans 25Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
11.8%
Willis,Ryan pass complete to Booker,Jeremiah for no gain to the KU25 (Adams, Kendall), PENALTY KU holding (Banks,D'Andre) 10 yards to the KU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
11.7%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tyler PatrickSimilar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
11.6%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:30
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
10.9%
Matthew Wyman punt blocked by Sam Sizelove blocked by Sam Sizelove Morgan Burns return for no gain for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
11.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Ben Johnson for 11 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
11.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Ben JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
11.0%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted Morgan Burns return for no gain to the KanSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
10.6%
Justin Silmon run for 17 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
10.4%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Kody Cook for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 39Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 13
OWN 39
0
10.5%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Winston DimelSimilar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 13
OWN 39
-5
10.6%
Joe Hubener sacked by Anthony Olobia and Damani Mosby for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 34Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 18
OWN 34
-6
10.7%
Nick Walsh punt for 43 yds , Tre' Parmalee returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
11.3%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 4 yds to the Kans 21Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
11.3%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Ke'aun KinnerSimilar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-5
11.2%
Ryan Willis sacked by Jordan Willis for a loss of 5 yards to the Kans 16Similar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 11
OWN 16
0
11.2%
Matthew Wyman punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kans 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 37 yds · 1:1789% → 92%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
10.6%
Justin Silmon run for no gain to the Kans 37Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+29
10.6%
Joe Hubener run for 29 yds to the Kans 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
7.7%
Glenn Gronkowski run for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
8.5%
Taylor Cox run for no gain to the Kans 17Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
8.4%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
8.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
8.4%
Matthew Wyman punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11TD
13 plays · 54 yds · 6:1992% → 93%
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
7.7%
Joe Hubener run for 7 yds to the Kans 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+9
7.5%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Deante Burton for 9 yds to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
7.6%
Charles Jones run for 9 yds to the Kans 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+5
7.5%
Jones, Charles rush for no gain to the KU29 (Glatczak, M.), PENALTY KU offside (Roberts,M.) 5 yards to the KU24, 1ST DOWN KSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
7.5%
Joe Hubener run for 7 yds to the Kans 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
7.5%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+2
7.6%
Joe Hubener run for 2 yds to the Kans 15Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+2
7.8%
Joe Hubener run for 2 yds to the Kans 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
7.5%
Winston Dimel run for 12 yds to the Kans 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
7.4%
Winston Dimel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
7.5%
Charles Jones run for no gain to the Kans 2Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
7.6%
Charles Jones run for no gain to the Kans 2Similar
Q2 9:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.1%
Joe Hubener run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12DOWNS
15 plays · 53 yds · 4:127% → 4%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
6.6%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+10
6.4%
De'Andre Mann run for 10 yds to the Kans 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
6.9%
De'Andre Mann run for 2 yds to the Kans 42Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+19
6.8%
De'Andre Mann run for 19 yds to the KanSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
7.3%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 4 yds to the KanSt 35Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+9
7.3%
Ryan Willis run for 9 yds to the KanSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
7.6%
Tre' Parmalee run for 2 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
7.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre' ParmaleeSimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+11
7.1%
Ryan Willis run for 11 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
7.5%
Taylor Cox run for 5 yds to the KanSt 8Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+4
7.2%
Taylor Cox run for 4 yds to the KanSt 4Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 1
OPP 4
-1
7.0%
Ryan Willis run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 5Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 2
OPP 5
-12
3.8%
Keaton Perry run for a loss of 12 yards to the KanSt 17 Keaton Perry fumbled, recovered by Kans Keaton PerrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
6.8%
Joe Hubener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
6.9%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+1
7.3%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Zach Reuter for 1 yd to the KanSt 18Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
7.6%
Nick Walsh punt for 42 yds, downed at the Kans 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
6.2%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 3 yds to the Kans 43Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
6.0%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 3 yds to the Kans 46Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-1
5.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Taylor Cox for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 45Similar
Q2 3:57
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+15
5.1%
Matthew Wyman punt for 47 yds , Dominique Heath returns for 15 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15END OF HALF
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:2694% → 96%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
6.5%
Joe Hubener run for 9 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+6
5.9%
Charles Jones run for 6 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
6.2%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Andre Davis for 8 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
5.6%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Stanton Weber, broken up by Dorance Armstrong Jr.Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
5.8%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Deante Burton for 3 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-8
3.7%
Joe Hubener sacked by Tevin Shaw for a loss of 8 yards to the KanSt 41Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 18
OWN 41
+13
3.8%
Charles Jones run for 13 yds to the Kans 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16FG
17 plays · 59 yds · 6:4296% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
4.0%
Winston Dimel run for 1 yd to the KanSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
4.0%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Kody Cook for 13 yds to the KanSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
3.9%
Charles Jones run for 6 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+7
3.8%
Charles Jones run for 7 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
3.8%
Charles Jones run for 1 yd to the Kans 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+22
3.8%
Joe Hubener run for 7 yds to the Kans 40 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, player disqualification (Derrick Neal) to the Kans 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
3.7%
Charles Jones run for 6 yds to the Kans 19Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
1.8%
Charles Jones run for no gain to the Kans 19Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+4
1.8%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Deante Burton for 4 yds to the Kans 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
1.6%
Glenn Gronkowski run for 2 yds to the Kans 13Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-3
1.6%
Joe Hubener run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 16Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 11
OPP 16
0
1.6%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Kody Cook, broken up by Bazie Bates IVSimilar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+33
2.0%
Matthew McCrane 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17DOWNS
11 plays · 77 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
1.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Kent Taylor for 7 yds to the Kans 21Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+1
1.3%
Taylor Cox run for 1 yd to the Kans 22Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+4
1.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 4 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
1.3%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the Kans 28Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+1
1.2%
De'Andre Mann run for 1 yd to the Kans 29Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+53
1.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 53 yds to the KanSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
1.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 5 yds to the KanSt 13Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
1.5%
Taylor Cox run for 3 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+1
1.5%
Taylor Cox run for 1 yd to the KanSt 9Similar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 1
OPP 9
0
1.4%
Taylor Cox run for no gain to the KanSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18TD
14 plays · 91 yds · 6:0698% → 99%
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
1.6%
Joe Hubener run for 4 yds to the KanSt 13Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+7
1.3%
Joe Hubener run for 7 yds to the KanSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
1.2%
Joe Hubener run for no gain to the KanSt 20Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
1.2%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Winston Dimel, broken up by Marcquis RobertsSimilar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+8
1.3%
Hubener, Joe pass incomplete to Burton, Deante, QB hurry by Roberts,M., PENALTY KU pass interference (Glatczak, M.) 8 yards to the KSU28, 1ST DOWN KSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
1.2%
Justin Silmon run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 27Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+1
1.2%
Justin Silmon run for 1 yd to the KanSt 28Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-5
1.2%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Luke Hayes) to the KanSt 23Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 15
OWN 23
+23
1.3%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Kody Cook for 23 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+31
0.5%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Glenn Gronkowski for 31 yds to the Kans 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
0.4%
Justin Silmon run for no gain to the Kans 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+1
0.4%
Justin Silmon run for 1 yd to the Kans 22Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+22
0.7%
Joe Hubener run for 22 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
0.2%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
0.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 5 yds to the Kans 35Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
0.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Ke'aun Kinner, broken up by Matt SeiwertSimilar
Q4 13:13
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
0.1%
Matthew Wyman punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
0.6%
Dalvin Warmack run for 8 yds to the Kans 48Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+4
0.6%
Dalvin Warmack run for 4 yds to the Kans 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
0.6%
Kody Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 45Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+4
0.6%
Kody Cook pass complete to Stanton Weber for 4 yds to the Kans 41Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
0.6%
Kody Cook pass intercepted Bazie Bates IV return for no gain to the Kans 41 KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21TD
16 plays · 93 yds · 6:230% → 0%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
0.1%
Taylor Cox run for 8 yds to the Kans 15Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 2
OWN 15
0
0.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Jeremiah BookerSimilar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+6
0.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 6 yds to the Kans 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
0.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tyler PatrickSimilar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
0.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Kent Taylor for 6 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+9
0.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Ben Johnson for 9 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to De'Andre MannSimilar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
0.1%
De'Andre Mann run for 5 yds to the Kans 41Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+9
0.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
50
+21
0.1%
Ryan Willis run for 21 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
0.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Jeremiah BookerSimilar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
0.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 8 yds to the KanSt 21Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+3
0.1%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 3 yds to the KanSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-7
0.1%
Ryan Willis sacked by Elijah Lee for a loss of 7 yards to the KanSt 25Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 17
OPP 25
-1
0.1%
Taylor Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 26Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 18
OPP 26
+26
0.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 26 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.2%
Dalvin Warmack run for no gain to the Kans 41Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
0.2%
Dalvin Warmack run for 4 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
0.2%
Zach Davidson pass incomplete to Tanner Langvardt KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
0.2%
Mitch Lochbihler punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
0.0%
Ryan Willis sacked by Craig Settles Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 14Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+10
0.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to De'Andre Mann for 10 yds to the Kans 24Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
0.0%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
0.0%
Matthew Wyman punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
0.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the KanSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:30
Glenn Gronkowski run for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
-2.9
TD · Q1 11:15
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 27 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q2 9:17
Joe Hubener run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
-0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com