Try the model
BAY

Baylor 21 at TCU 28

TCU
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2015 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:45 · Ethan Perry punt for 44 yds, downed at the Bayl 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseTime remainingScore differentialDefense timeoutsOffense timeoutsScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 103Home team on offense+0.6Time remaining−0.2Score differential−0.8Defense timeouts+0.0Offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:55: Josh Carraway 56 Yd Fumble Return (Jaden Oberkrom Kick) — TCU win probability +6.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:51: Kyle Hicks run for 8 yds to the Bayl 47 — TCU win probability +16.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Devin Chafin 4 Yd pass from Chris Johnson (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +17.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Trevone Boykin 1 Yd Run (Jaden Oberkrom Kick) — TCU win probability +36.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: KaVontae Turpin 8 Yd pass from Trevone Boykin (Jaden Oberkrom Kick) — TCU win probability +15.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 11 of 14BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 13:55BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:40BAY 4th & 1 at TCU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    52.7%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:03TCU 4th & 7 at BAY 31, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    44.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    44.6%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:21BAY 4th & 15 at BAY 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:48TCU 4th & 20 at TCU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−1.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:06TCU 4th & 11 at TCU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:24BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:42TCU 4th & 13 at TCU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:21BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:09TCU 4th & 12 at TCU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:45TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:12BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:02TCU 4th & 12 at TCU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−2.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:20BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:47TCU 4th & 7 at BAY 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:34BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−1.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:40TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:38BAY 4th & 15 at BAY 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−5.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  19. Q3 1:00TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−1.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:41TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−2.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  21. Q4 11:34BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.8%−6.3
    average punt
  22. Q4 10:16BAY 4th & 6 at TCU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−6.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%−0.6
    average punt
  23. Q4 8:52TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−3.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  24. Q4 7:09BAY 4th & 5 at TCU 45, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    46.0%−5.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%−1.6
    average punt
  25. Q4 5:04TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 45, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%−1.5
    average punt
  26. Q4 2:10TCU 4th & 11 at BAY 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    49.7%−2.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:40BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:55TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:28BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:55TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
15 plays · 61 yds · 4:0452% → 53%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
48.4%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
48.4%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+2
48.5%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q1 13:55
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+1
48.5%
Chris Johnson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
48.5%
Johnson, Chris pass incomplete to Coleman, Corey, PENALTY TCU pass interference (O'Meally, Corry) 15 yards to the TCU36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
48.5%
Chris Johnson pass complete to KD Cannon for 11 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
48.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Jarell Broxton) to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+15
48.5%
Johnson, Chris pass pass intended for Lee, Jay intercepted by Lewis, Julius at the TCU0, Lewis, Julius return 0 yards to the TCU0, PENALTY TCU roughing passer (Carraway, Josh) 15 yards to the TCU15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
48.5%
Chris Johnson run for 9 yds to the TCU 6Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+2
48.5%
Chris Johnson run for 2 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
48.5%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the TCU 2Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
48.5%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 3Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
48.6%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q1 10:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.3%
Devin Chafin 1 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:2848% → 51%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
47.7%
Aaron Green run for 8 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+15
48.0%
Boykin, Trevone pass incomplete to Porter, Emanuel, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference (Reid, Ryan) 15 yards to the BAYLOR40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
48.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 14 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
48.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 1 yd to the Bayl 25Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+25
50.5%
Jarrison Stewart 25 Yd pass from Trevone Boykin (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:1951% → 54%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
49.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 8 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
49.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
49.1%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+44
49.2%
Johnny Jefferson run for 44 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
48.6%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Jay Lee for 7 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+5
48.5%
Chris Johnson run for 5 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
45.8%
Devin Chafin 5 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:0047% → 47%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+33
46.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 33 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
48.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 9 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 1
OPP 25
-10
48.0%
Boykin, Trevone rush for no gain to the BAYLOR25, PENALTY TCU holding (Noteboom, Joseph) 10 yards to the BAYLOR35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
47.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+4
47.2%
Trevone Boykin run for 4 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 5:03
4TH & 7
OPP 31
0
46.7%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Jarrison StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2854% → 54%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
45.7%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 11
OWN 30
-3
46.0%
Chris Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 27Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 14
OWN 27
-1
46.2%
Chris Johnson sacked by Davion Pierson for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
46.4%
Drew Galitz punt for 41 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:2646% → 44%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
46.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 3 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
46.1%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Shaun NixonSimilar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-5
45.4%
TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (Trevone Boykin) to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 12
OWN 31
-8
44.9%
Trevone Boykin sacked by Andrew Billings for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 20
OWN 23
+1
44.4%
Ethan Perry punt for 48 yds , Lynx Hawthorne returns for 1 yd to the Bayl 30 Lynx Hawthorne fumbled, recovered by TCU Paul WhitmillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4647% → 47%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
47.4%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
47.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+14
46.6%
Trevone Boykin pass intercepted Xavien Howard return for 14 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8INT
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:1055% → 56%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
44.7%
Corey Coleman run for 14 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
44.2%
Chris Johnson pass intercepted Nick Orr return for no gain to the TCU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1945% → 44%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
44.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 4
OWN 30
-7
45.5%
Trevone Boykin sacked by Jamal Palmer for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
43.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kyle HicksSimilar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
43.5%
Ethan Perry punt for 46 yds, downed at the Bayl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:0456% → 51%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
43.8%
Shock Linwood run for 12 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
42.9%
Shock Linwood run for 15 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
42.5%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
42.4%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to Davion HallSimilar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-56
48.9%
Josh Carraway 56 Yd Fumble Return (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2250% → 49%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
50.4%
Johnny Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+1
49.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+1
50.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 11:24
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
51.2%
Drew Galitz punt for 39 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 4:3252% → 52%
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
52.1%
Trevone Boykin run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 26Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+2
52.0%
KaVontae Turpin run for 2 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+11
51.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 11 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
53.5%
Aaron Green run for 7 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
54.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
50
0
54.9%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
50
-3
54.6%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 13
OWN 47
0
52.4%
Trevone Boykin run for no gain to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
51.5%
Ethan Perry punt for 39 yds, downed at the Bayl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:1450% → 49%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
49.9%
Chris Johnson pass complete to KD Cannon for 11 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
49.7%
Corey Coleman run for a loss of 1 yards to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
50.0%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+6
51.0%
Chris Johnson pass complete to KD Cannon for 6 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
51.5%
Drew Galitz punt for 32 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:1654% → 55%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
54.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 2 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+9
54.8%
Trevone Boykin run for 9 yds to the TCU 49 Trevone Boykin fumbled, forced by Jamal Palmer, recovered by Bayl Taylor YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15FUMBLE
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:0553% → 51%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
47.2%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
47.4%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+15
48.8%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Shock Linwood for 15 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
46.5%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
46.5%
Chris Johnson run for 4 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-8
47.5%
Chris Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 38 Chris Johnson fumbled, recovered by Bayl Corey Coleman, Corey Coleman rush for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 14
OPP 38
-5
49.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TCU 43Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 19
OPP 43
0
49.3%
Drew Galitz punt for 28 yds, downed at the TCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:2553% → 51%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
53.0%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+6
53.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 6 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
53.6%
Aaron Green run for 6 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+10
54.8%
Aaron Green run for 10 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
55.2%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-2
54.1%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 12
OWN 40
0
52.0%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
51.1%
Ethan Perry punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
46.5%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Corey Coleman for 8 yds to the TCU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0054% → 52%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
53.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
53.8%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
52.6%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
Q3 13:45
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
51.6%
Ethan Perry punt for 44 yds, downed at the Bayl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:2050% → 49%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
49.8%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
48.3%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to Jordan FeuerbacherSimilar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
49.5%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
51.0%
Drew Galitz punt for 37 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0155% → 52%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
54.5%
Aaron Green run for 6 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+13
55.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Dominic Merka for 13 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
56.8%
Trevone Boykin run for no gain to the TCU 47Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
56.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kyle HicksSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+3
54.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 7
50
-5
53.5%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Niko Small) to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
52.3%
Ethan Perry punt for 52 yds, downed at the Bayl 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3649% → 46%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
51.4%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+5
51.7%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 8Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 5
OWN 8
0
52.9%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 5
OWN 8
0
54.0%
Drew Galitz punt for 43 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2257% → 54%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
57.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 3 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
58.3%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the Bayl 48Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
57.2%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Jarrison Stewart, broken up by Taion SellsSimilar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
54.3%
Ethan Perry punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0649% → 46%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
51.3%
Johnson, Chris pass complete to Coleman, Corey for 7 yards to the BAYLOR20, PENALTY BAYLOR ineligible downfield on pass (Broxton, Jarell) 5 yards to the BAYLOR8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+5
51.7%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+2
51.7%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+2
53.1%
Chris Johnson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
54.4%
Drew Galitz punt for 56 yds, downed at the TCU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4655% → 53%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
55.0%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the TCU 27Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
54.5%
Aaron Green run for 6 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+2
54.6%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q3 4:40
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
53.1%
Ethan Perry punt for 42 yds, downed at the Bayl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 1:5249% → 47%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
50.9%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+2
50.0%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+5
50.9%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
49.9%
Devin Chafin run for 6 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+8
47.6%
Devin Chafin run for 8 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
47.0%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to Chris Platt, broken up by Derrick KindredSimilar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
47.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Pat Colbert) to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
50.0%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 15
OWN 43
0
51.1%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to Devin ChafinSimilar
Q3 2:38
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
53.2%
Drew Galitz punt for 51 yds, downed at the TCU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:3154% → 52%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+14
54.1%
Aaron Green run for 14 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
54.9%
Shaun Nixon run for 3 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
54.9%
Shaun Nixon run for 1 yd to the TCU 24Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
53.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kolby Listenbee, broken up by Xavien HowardSimilar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+11
52.0%
TEAM punt blocked by Terence Williams blocked by Terence WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 27FUMBLE
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:4255% → 53%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
45.0%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
45.1%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+15
47.0%
Devin Chafin run for 15 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
44.4%
Chris Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 23Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 14
OPP 23
+4
46.4%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-3
47.2%
Chris Johnson sacked by Josh Carraway for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 22 Chris Johnson fumbled, forced by Josh Carraway, recovered by TCU Davion Pierson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1555% → 52%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
55.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 5 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+3
56.1%
Trevone Boykin run for 3 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 2
OWN 30
-5
54.9%
TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (Shaun Nixon) to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
53.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
52.3%
Ethan Perry punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:1850% → 50%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
49.6%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
47.1%
Devin Chafin run for 1 yd to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+4
48.2%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+4
49.4%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
50
+4
45.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
46.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for no gain to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
46.6%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to Jordan FeuerbacherSimilar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
50.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 39 yds, downed at the TCU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1855% → 51%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
55.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 6 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+1
55.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Aaron Green for 1 yd to the TCU 14Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
53.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kyle HicksSimilar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 3
OWN 14
-5
51.8%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 9Similar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 8
OWN 9
0
51.4%
Ethan Perry punt for 41 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3454% → 51%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
50
0
45.9%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to KD Cannon, broken up by Julius LewisSimilar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 10
50
+2
46.8%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+3
47.3%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
48.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 35 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 32PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 1:5655% → 57%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+17
55.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 17 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
56.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+6
58.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
58.6%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-5
60.6%
Green, Aaron rush for 4 yards to the TCU46, PENALTY TCU illegal formation 5 yards to the TCU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 12
OWN 37
0
56.6%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Dominic MerkaSimilar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+8
54.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 8 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 5:04
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
56.8%
Ethan Perry punt for 8 yds, downed at the Bayl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 33FUMBLE
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
44.8%
Devin Chafin run for 8 yds to the TCU 45 Devin Chafin fumbled, recovered by TCU Derrick KindredSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 34PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:4161% → 55%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
60.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 8 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+3
62.7%
Trevone Boykin run for 3 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
62.7%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+1
61.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-1
59.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kyle Hicks for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
55.0%
Ethan Perry punt for 44 yds, downed at the Bayl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 35END OF GAME
9 plays · 24 yds · 1:4949% → 50%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
50.6%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the Bayl 4Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+4
51.4%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the Bayl 8Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+5
51.4%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
48.6%
Devin Chafin run for 7 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+15
47.4%
Devin Chafin run for 15 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
47.3%
Corey Coleman run for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 29Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 16
OWN 29
-4
50.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 36TD
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 77%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
40.5%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the TCU 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
40.5%
Chris Johnson run for 6 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
40.5%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the TCU 11Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+2
40.5%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the TCU 9Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+7
43.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for 7 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
40.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 3Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
40.5%
Chris Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 4Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
22.9%
Devin Chafin 4 Yd pass from Chris Johnson (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 37TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
28.1%
Trevone Boykin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 28Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+7
22.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Dominic Merka for 7 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+15
25.6%
Boykin, Trevone pass incomplete to Listenbee, Kolby, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference (Waz, Chance) 15 yards to the BAYLOR6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
28.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 5 yds to the Bayl 1Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.7%
Trevone Boykin 1 Yd Run (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 38TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 80%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
64.7%
KaVontae Turpin run for 7 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+8
64.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 8 yds to the Bayl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
64.7%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 12Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
64.5%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the Bayl 8Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
79.6%
KaVontae Turpin 8 Yd pass from Trevone Boykin (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 39Uncategorized
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0020% → 12%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
80.4%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the TCU 23Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+2
80.4%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the TCU 21Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+5
86.0%
Chris Johnson run for 5 yds to the TCU 16Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
88.3%
Devin Chafin run for no gain to the TCU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Trevone Boykin 1 Yd Run (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)
+36.6
TD · OT 0:00
Devin Chafin 4 Yd pass from Chris Johnson (Chris Callahan Kick)
-17.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:51
Kyle Hicks run for 8 yds to the Bayl 47
+16.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com