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TTU

Texas Tech 48 at Texas 45

TEX
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2015 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:28 · Taylor Symmank punt for 43 yds, downed at the Texas 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Home team on offense−2.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−1.3Pregame prior+2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 11:10: Tyrone Swoopes 1 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick) — TEX win probability +25.0 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q4 7:54: Tyrone Swoopes 46 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick) — TEX win probability +31.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:18: Justin Stockton 1 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick) — TTU win probability +36.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:41: Jakeem Grant 40 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick) — TTU win probability +26.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:06: Chris Warren III 8 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick) — TEX win probability +29.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:21TTU 4th & 9 at TEX 29, tied
    Close callWent for it · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    43.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:22TEX 4th & 22 at TEX 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:16TTU 4th & 13 at TTU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:35TEX 4th & 9 at TTU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:28TTU 4th & 6 at TEX 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:56TEX 4th & 14 at TTU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:47TEX 4th & 17 at TEX 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:28TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:47TEX 4th & 12 at TEX 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:25TTU 4th & 14 at TEX 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:15TTU 4th & 7 at TEX 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    54.3%−0.9
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:24TTU 4th & 7 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:54TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 25, down 7
    Close callPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:32TEX 4th & 16 at TTU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−2.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:33TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:07TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:51TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.2%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q2 14:28TTU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:59TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:48TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:58TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:47TEX Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:36TEX Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:29TTU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:10TEX Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:54TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:18TTU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−2.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:41TTU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:06TEX Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.8 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.6%−1.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1INT
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:2446% → 46%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
54.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 14 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
54.3%
Jakeem Grant run for 2 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+10
54.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 10 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
54.3%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+16
54.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 16 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
54.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 31Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+2
54.2%
Patrick Mahomes run for 2 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
54.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q1 12:21
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+16
54.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass intercepted Dylan Haines return for 16 yds to the Texas 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 11 yds · 3:4455% → 54%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
54.7%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+8
54.7%
Jerrod Heard run for 8 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
54.8%
Chris Warren III run for 1 yd to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+3
54.8%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Chris Warren III for 3 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+9
54.8%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 9 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
55.3%
John Burt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 45Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-5
55.1%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 40Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 17
OWN 40
-10
55.0%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 27
OWN 30
0
54.8%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Alex De La TorreSimilar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 27
OWN 30
+5
54.5%
Chris Warren III run for 5 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 22
OWN 35
0
54.4%
Michael Dickson punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5045% → 45%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
54.8%
DeAndre Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 22Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 11
OWN 22
-2
54.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Brad Pearson for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 20Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 13
OWN 20
0
55.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to DeAndre WashingtonSimilar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 13
OWN 20
+13
55.4%
Taylor Symmank punt for 40 yds , Daje Johnson returns for 13 yds to the Texas 33 TEXAS Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Texas 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:4156% → 55%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
55.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 3 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
56.0%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 3 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-2
56.0%
Tyrone Swoopes run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
55.8%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
55.0%
Michael Dickson punt for 24 yds, downed at the TexTc 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:5645% → 45%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
55.0%
DeAndre Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 13Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+36
55.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 36 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
54.0%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Hassan Ridgeway and Naashon Hughes for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 48Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+5
54.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 5 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
54.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 6
OPP 47
+9
54.8%
Taylor Symmank punt for 38 yds , Daje Johnson returns for 9 yds to the Texas 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4755% → 55%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
55.2%
Chris Warren III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 17Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+4
55.2%
Jerrod Heard run for 4 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
54.8%
Jerrod Heard pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
54.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 10 yds Devin Lauderdale fumbled, forced by Malik Jefferson, recovered by Texas Holton HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8FG
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:5957% → 56%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+32
57.0%
Kirk Johnson run for 32 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
57.4%
Kirk Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 10Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
57.5%
Kirk Johnson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 9Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
57.1%
Jerrod Heard sacked by Tevin Madison for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 14Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
56.2%
Nick Rose 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:2143% → 48%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
56.7%
DeAndre Washington run for no gain to the TexTc 35Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+65
52.4%
Jakeem Grant 65 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:2853% → 51%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.5%
Chris Warren III run for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
52.6%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-8
52.0%
Jerrod Heard sacked by J.J. Gaines for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 23Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-5
51.0%
TEXAS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Texas 18Similar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
51.0%
Michael Dickson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Keke Coutee at the TexTc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1449% → 48%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
51.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-10
51.7%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the TexTc 23Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 20
OWN 23
+15
52.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for 15 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
50.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
52.3%
Taylor Symmank punt for 43 yds, downed at the Texas 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:3452% → 51%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
52.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-2
52.0%
Tyrone Swoopes sacked by TEAM for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 17Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 12
OWN 17
0
51.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Lorenzo JoeSimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 12
OWN 17
0
50.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:1349% → 53%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
51.0%
Patrick Mahomes run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
50
+6
49.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 6 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+14
49.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 14 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
48.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-4
48.7%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Bryce Cottrell for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 34Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 14
OPP 34
0
50.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 14
OPP 34
+51
46.9%
Clayton Hatfield 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:3046% → 45%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
45.5%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
45.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass intercepted Nigel Bethel return for no gain to the TexTc 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:1457% → 57%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
43.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 8 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+10
42.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 10 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
42.1%
Patrick Mahomes run for 3 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
42.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
42.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
43.2%
Taylor Symmank punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Daje Johnson at the Texas 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16TD
1 play · 91 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+91
56.1%
Chris Warren III 91 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2149% → 47%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
51.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Justin StocktonSimilar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
51.6%
DeAndre Washington run for 8 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-5
51.0%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 7
50
0
51.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q2 4:24
4TH & 7
50
+2
53.4%
Taylor Symmank punt for 36 yds , Daje Johnson returns for 2 yds to the Texas 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:0757% → 57%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-7
56.6%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 2 yds to the Texas 18 TEXAS Penalty, Clipping (-9 Yards) to the Texas 9Similar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 17
OWN 9
+2
56.3%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+15
56.4%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
56.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Caleb Bluiett for 8 yds Caleb Bluiett fumbled, forced by Pete Robertson, recovered by TexTc J.J. GainesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:1450% → 63%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
49.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 14 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
49.1%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the Texas 19Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+16
49.0%
Patrick Mahomes run for 16 yds to the Texas 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
49.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the Texas 1Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.1%
Patrick Mahomes 1 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:3442% → 43%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
42.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Chris Warren III for 9 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 1
OWN 25
0
43.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
41.9%
Chris Warren III run for no gain to the Texas 25Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
42.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 48 yds, downed at the TexTc 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21FUMBLE
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:4459% → 65%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
40.8%
DeAndre Washington run for 6 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+9
39.6%
Patrick Mahomes run for 9 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
38.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 5 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+4
37.9%
Patrick Mahomes run for 4 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+9
37.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 9 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
34.6%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Shiro Davis for 0 yards to the Texas 32 Patrick Mahomes fumbled, recovered by Texas Hassan Ridgeway , return for 0 yards , return for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:1041% → 38%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
41.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Burt for 9 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+14
43.2%
Chris Warren III run for 14 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
43.8%
Chris Warren III run for 1 yd to the Texas 49Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
43.5%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+10
41.4%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 10 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-11
44.0%
Tyrone Swoopes sacked by D'Vonta Hinton for a loss of 11 yards to the Texas 48Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 21
OWN 48
+5
40.8%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 5 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 16
OPP 47
0
39.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 16
OPP 47
0
38.3%
Michael Dickson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23TD
13 plays · 91 yds · 3:2561% → 82%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+18
38.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 18 yds to the TexTc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
37.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
38.1%
Patrick Mahomes run for 8 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+3
36.6%
Patrick Mahomes run for 3 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
35.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+19
34.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 19 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
34.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-10
33.2%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Texas 45Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 16
OPP 45
0
34.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 16
OPP 45
+31
36.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 31 yds to the Texas 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
32.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
32.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 12 yds to the Texas 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
18.5%
DeAndre Washington 2 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2022% → 21%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.4%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Chris Warren IIISimilar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.0%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
21.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Burt for 4 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
21.3%
Michael Dickson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:1082% → 81%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
18.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to DeAndre WashingtonSimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-1
18.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for a loss of 1 yard Ian Sadler fumbled, forced by John Bonney, recovered by Texas Charles OmenihuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 26TD
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:1225% → 43%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
24.7%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Burt for 7 yds to the TexTc 21Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+21
43.4%
Chris Warren III 21 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:3867% → 72%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
33.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for 1 yd to the TexTc 31Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+59
33.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 59 yds to the Texas 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
29.6%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the Texas 9Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
29.4%
DeAndre Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 12Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-9
29.3%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Naashon Hughes for a loss of 9 yards to the Texas 21Similar
Q3 2:55
4TH & 0
OPP 21
+38
27.6%
Clayton Hatfield 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 28TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:0229% → 54%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
29.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Burt for 3 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+8
29.3%
Chris Warren III run for 8 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
30.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Alex De La Torre for 6 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+23
53.8%
Chris Warren III 23 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 29TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5657% → 78%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
43.5%
DeAndre Washington run for 7 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+14
41.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 14 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
40.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 6 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+14
39.0%
Justin Stockton run for 14 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
38.0%
Patrick Mahomes run for 17 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
37.5%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the Texas 16Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+16
22.2%
DeAndre Washington 16 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 30TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:1024% → 51%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+25
23.8%
Chris Warren III run for 25 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
25.5%
Chris Warren III run for 21 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
27.6%
Chris Warren III run for 5 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+3
27.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Daje Johnson for 3 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+6
25.7%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 6 yds to the TexTc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
26.2%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 15 yds to the TexTc 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
26.0%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 1 yd to the TexTc 1Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.1%
Tyrone Swoopes 1 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 31PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:5261% → 64%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
39.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 20 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
33.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 5
50
-2
31.5%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 48Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
32.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Justin StocktonSimilar
Q4 9:07
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+22
35.8%
Taylor Symmank punt for 43 yds , Daje Johnson returns for 22 yds to the Texas 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 32TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:0642% → 77%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
41.6%
Chris Warren III run for 16 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
45.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
44.9%
Chris Warren III run for 7 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+46
76.7%
Tyrone Swoopes 46 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 33TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2732% → 75%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.3%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
67.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 15 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
64.8%
DeAndre Washington run for 10 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
61.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 6 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+40
61.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 40 yds to the Texas 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.7%
Justin Stockton 1 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 34DOWNS
10 plays · 15 yds · 3:2038% → 33%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
38.4%
Chris Warren III run for 7 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
41.5%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 27Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
37.0%
Chris Warren III run for 10 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
38.0%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 1 yd to the Texas 38Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-5
38.1%
TEXAS Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Texas 33Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
35.7%
Chris Warren III run for no gain to the Texas 33Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+7
33.5%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 7 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
32.5%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 35TD
1 play · 40 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
6.0%
Jakeem Grant 40 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 36TD
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:0510% → 39%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
9.5%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 16 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
39.1%
Chris Warren III 8 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 37END OF GAME
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:4088% → 95%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
12.5%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+5
10.4%
Patrick Mahomes run for 5 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
9.9%
Patrick Mahomes run for 3 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
7.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 48Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 12
OPP 48
-3
5.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:18
Justin Stockton 1 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)
-36.3
TD · Q4 7:54
Tyrone Swoopes 46 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)
+31.8
TD · Q4 2:06
Chris Warren III 8 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)
+29.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com