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BAY

Baylor 45 at Oklahoma State 35

OKST
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:13 · Chris Callahan 45 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior−6.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:57: Devin Chafin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +5.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:59: Chris Johnson pass complete to Jay Lee for 39 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +13.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:24: Chris Johnson pass complete to KD Cannon for 71 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +10.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:19: Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 9 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +11.0 pts (now 17%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:00: Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 19 yds for a TD BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +8.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 8 of 11BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:09OKST 4th & 3 at OKST 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:59BAY 4th & 4 at OKST 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    57.6%−0.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:13BAY 4th & 10 at OKST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:06OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:11OKST 4th & 18 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:44OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:12BAY 4th & 1 at OKST 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    61.8%−1.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−6.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:25BAY 4th & 5 at OKST 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−5.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:15OKST 4th & 19 at OKST 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−1.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:12OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:57OKST 4th & 11 at OKST 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:00BAY 4th & 2 at OKST 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%−2.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:04OKST 4th & 17 at BAY 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−1.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−1.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:44BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 49, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:00OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:59BAY 4th & 10 at OKST 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    92.2%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:16OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:22OKST 4th & 12 at midfield, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 14:04BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:56BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:38OKST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 6:40OKST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:57BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:59BAY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:24BAY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:19OKST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:00OKST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:10BAY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:12OKST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 0:4158% → 58%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+48
42.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for 48 yds to the OKSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
42.1%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the OKSt 10Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+5
42.2%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the OKSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
42.0%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4542% → 42%
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
42.1%
Chris Carson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+5
42.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 5 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
42.0%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
42.0%
Zach Sinor punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 1:0658% → 59%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
42.0%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+8
41.9%
TEAM run for no gain to the Bayl 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Bayl Shock Linwood for a 1ST down Shock Linwood run for 8 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
41.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
41.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+59
40.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to KD Cannon for 59 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 3:0541% → 43%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
40.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 4 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+8
40.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 8 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
40.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-4
40.4%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Taylor Young for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 31Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+38
40.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 38 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
40.6%
Chris Carson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
40.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Austin HaysSimilar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+18
40.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 18 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
40.4%
Jeff Carr run for 6 yds to the Bayl 3Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
42.5%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:2659% → 59%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
41.0%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+14
40.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to KD Cannon for 14 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
40.6%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
40.5%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
40.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q1 6:59
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
40.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6TD
2 plays · 58 yds · 0:1242% → 45%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
41.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Zac Veatch for 19 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
45.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 39 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7MISSED FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 1:1356% → 56%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
44.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
44.4%
Jarrett Stidham run for 3 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+42
44.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to KD Cannon for 42 yds to the OKSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
43.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
43.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Corey Coleman, broken up by Kevin PetersonSimilar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
43.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
44.5%
Chris Callahan 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0245% → 45%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
44.9%
Raymond Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+11
45.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 11 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
45.6%
J.W. Walsh run for no gain to the OKSt 37Similar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
44.9%
Zach Sinor punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 3:0155% → 62%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
45.0%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+3
44.9%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+7
44.7%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
44.3%
Jarrett Stidham run for 3 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+8
44.2%
Jarrett Stidham run for 8 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
43.7%
Corey Coleman run for 15 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
43.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Jarell Broxton) to the OKSt 47Similar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+17
43.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 17 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
42.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
42.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 5 yds to the OKSt 21Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+3
43.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
42.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for 14 yds to the OKSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
42.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 1Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.6%
Devin Chafin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:2240% → 38%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
39.7%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+25
39.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Carson for 25 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-9
41.3%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Travon Blanchard for a loss of 9 yards to the OKSt 49Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 19
OWN 49
+16
39.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 16 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-15
41.1%
Rudolph, Mason pass incomplete to Ateman, Marcell, PENALTY OKLAST pass interference (Ateman, Marcell) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 18
50
0
39.0%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 18
50
0
38.4%
Zach Sinor punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11FUMBLE
16 plays · 51 yds · 3:3561% → 64%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
38.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for 4 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
38.3%
Jarrett Stidham run for 5 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
38.2%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
37.9%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
37.9%
Linwood, Shock rush for 4 yards to the BAYLOR39, PENALTY OKLAST substitution infraction 5 yards to the BAYLOR40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+2
37.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+4
37.1%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
36.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Corey Coleman for 5 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-5
36.2%
Stidham, Jarrett pass complete to Coleman, Corey for 1 yard to the OKLAST48, PENALTY BAYLOR illegal formation 5 yards to the BAYLOR46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-5
36.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Gus Penning) to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 14
OWN 41
0
37.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 14
OWN 41
+16
38.1%
Jarrett Stidham run for 16 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
35.9%
Stidham, Jarrett pass incomplete to Coleman, Corey, PENALTY BAYLOR holding (Broxton, Jarell) 10 yards to the BAYLOR47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+8
36.7%
Shock Linwood run for 8 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+9
36.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Jay Lee for 9 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+7
35.8%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the OKSt 29 Shock Linwood fumbled, forced by Jordan Burton, recovered by OKSt Kevin PetersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3738% → 36%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
38.2%
Rennie Childs run for 8 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
38.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Rennie Childs for no gain to the OKSt 37Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
37.7%
J.W. Walsh run for no gain to the OKSt 37Similar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
36.4%
Zach Sinor punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:1064% → 67%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
35.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to KD Cannon for 24 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
34.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Jay Lee for 17 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
33.5%
Johnny Jefferson run for 5 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+3
33.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+1
33.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 25Similar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+3
34.3%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the OKSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
32.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
33.2%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the OKSt 21Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+4
33.4%
Jarrett Stidham run for 4 yds to the OKSt 17Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
33.2%
Chris Callahan 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:5533% → 31%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
33.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 7 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-6
34.0%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Aiavion Edwards for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-10
31.7%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Andrew Billings for a loss of 10 yards to the OKSt 23 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Mason Rudolph) to the OKSt 23Similar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 19
OWN 23
0
31.0%
Zach Sinor punt for 35 yds, downed at the Bayl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:2469% → 71%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
31.4%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
30.9%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+13
31.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for 13 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
29.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 35Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-3
29.5%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Emmanuel Ogbah for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 38 Jarrett Stidham fumbled, forced by Emmanuel Ogbah, recovered by OKSt Emmanuel Ogbah , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2531% → 30%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
31.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James Washington, broken up by Xavien HowardSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
31.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 5 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
30.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris CarsonSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
30.1%
Zach Sinor punt for 38 yds, downed at the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
31.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:5131% → 29%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
30.6%
Rudolph, Mason pass incomplete to Ateman, Marcell, PENALTY BAYLOR face mask (Waz, Chance) 15 yards to the OKLAST38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
31.6%
Chris Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 37Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
30.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris CarsonSimilar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
29.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 13:57
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
28.9%
Zach Sinor punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 3:5269% → 85%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
31.1%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
31.1%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to KD Cannon, broken up by Tre FlowersSimilar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+10
32.6%
Chris Johnson run for 10 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
30.4%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+16
30.0%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Jay Lee for 16 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
29.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
28.8%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Jay Lee for 6 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-1
28.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 41Similar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+3
29.9%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
28.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Jordan Feuerbacher) to the OKSt 43Similar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+4
28.5%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+39
15.0%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Jay Lee for 39 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:4918% → 18%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
18.2%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 21Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+41
17.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 41 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
19.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Brandon SheperdSimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-7
19.4%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Andrew Billings for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 17
OPP 45
0
18.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 17
OPP 45
0
17.8%
Zach Sinor punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:3285% → 96%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
14.8%
Corey Coleman run for 2 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+4
14.7%
Corey Coleman run for 4 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+8
14.6%
Shock Linwood run for 8 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
14.2%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+71
3.8%
Chris Johnson pass complete to KD Cannon for 71 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 2:566% → 17%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
6.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 6 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+11
6.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
50
0
6.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
50
+14
6.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 14 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
6.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+14
6.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 14 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
6.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan Seales, broken up by Ryan ReidSimilar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
6.2%
Chris Carson run for 9 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+4
6.2%
J.W. Walsh run for 4 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
6.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q3 3:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
17.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 9 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2790% → 92%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
10.4%
Chris Johnson run for 14 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
8.0%
Devin Chafin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 48Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+1
7.8%
Chris Johnson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
7.9%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
8.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 50 yds, downed at the OKSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:3713% → 11%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+9
13.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 9 yds to the OKSt 10Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 1
OWN 10
+5
13.2%
Chris Carson run for 5 yds to the OKSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
12.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 5 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+8
11.6%
Raymond Taylor run for 8 yds to the OKSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
11.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskey, broken up by Chance WazSimilar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
11.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 0:04
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
11.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+2
11.3%
Zach Sinor punt for 45 yds , Lynx Hawthorne returns for 2 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 3:5393% → 95%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
7.0%
Chris Johnson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
6.5%
Chris Johnson pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+9
6.6%
Devin Chafin run for 9 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
5.7%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+3
5.5%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+3
5.6%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
5.2%
Chris Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
5.2%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
4.9%
Devin Chafin run for no gain to the OKSt 40Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 5
OPP 40
-5
5.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
5.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:356% → 6%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
6.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Carson for 11 yds to the OKSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
6.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
6.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
5.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
5.8%
Zach Sinor punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 27INT
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:5895% → 97%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
4.6%
Devin Chafin run for 11 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
4.3%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Corey Coleman for 6 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+2
3.9%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
3.9%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
50
+34
3.3%
Chris Johnson pass intercepted Jordan Sterns return for 34 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 28TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 1:576% → 12%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
5.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Zac Veatch for no gain to the Bayl 48Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-6
5.2%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Jamal Palmer for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 46Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 16
OWN 46
+4
4.5%
Mason Rudolph run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 12
50
+36
3.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 36 yds to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
4.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
4.2%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (James Washington) to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 15
OPP 19
0
3.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Brandon Sheperd, broken up by Xavien HowardSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 15
OPP 19
+19
12.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 19 yds for a TD BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 29TD
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:3891% → 99%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
8.7%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
8.5%
Johnny Jefferson run for 5 yds to the OKSt 21Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
7.9%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the OKSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
6.6%
Chris Johnson run for 7 yds to the OKSt 12Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+4
6.1%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the OKSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
5.1%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the OKSt 4Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
1.4%
Chris Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 30TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 0:462% → 6%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
1.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 12 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+48
1.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 48 yds to the Bayl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
2.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
2.4%
J.W. Walsh run for 3 yds to the Bayl 2Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
6.3%
J.W. Walsh run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:4096% → 96%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
3.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 14
OPP 45
-3
3.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:59
Chris Johnson pass complete to Jay Lee for 39 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q3 3:19
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 9 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
+11
TD · Q3 6:24
Chris Johnson pass complete to KD Cannon for 71 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
-10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com