Try the model
TCU

TCU 29 at Oklahoma 30

OU
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:13 · Austin Seibert punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 177Pregame prior+7.4Home team on offense+27.5Garbage-time factor+12.9Score differential+13.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.2Time remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:06: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 36 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +4.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:43: Aaron Green run for 26 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TCU win probability +5.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:55: Samaje Perine run for 72 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +7.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:59: Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 86 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +4.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:51: Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 14 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TCU win probability +25.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Inside the two-minute warning).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 12 of 15TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:47TCU 4th & 12 at TCU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:23OU 4th & 21 at TCU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:50OU 4th & 9 at OU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:43TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:01OU 4th & 4 at OU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:46TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:16OU 4th & 3 at TCU 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.4%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:00OU 4th & 1 at TCU 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.8%−1.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    78.8%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:12OU 4th & 15 at TCU 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−1.0
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−3.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:44TCU 4th & 3 at OU 42, down 13
    Close callPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00OU 4th & 10 at TCU 20, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−3.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:49OU 4th & 7 at OU 41, up 16
    Close callWent for it · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.2%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:05OU 4th & 8 at TCU 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−4.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:39TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:33OU 4th & 16 at OU 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−2.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:15TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 38, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%−1.3
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:10OU 4th & 10 at OU 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:44TCU 4th & 2 at OU 47, down 17
    Close callPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q3 2:15OU 4th & 7 at OU 13, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  20. Q3 0:52TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  21. Q4 14:08OU 4th & 8 at midfield, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  22. Q4 12:45TCU 4th & 16 at TCU 5, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  23. Q4 9:13OU 4th & 12 at TCU 39, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  24. Q4 6:27TCU 4th & 3 at OU 26, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.9%−0.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−3.4
    average punt
  25. Q4 4:22OU 4th & 2 at OU 33, up 7
    Close callPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 9:34TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:22OU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:06OU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:43TCU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:55OU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:59TCU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:51TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 2.6 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.0%−2.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0811% → 11%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.1%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-4
88.9%
Foster Sawyer sacked by Charles Tapper for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
88.8%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Aaron GreenSimilar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
88.8%
Ethan Perry punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:1789% → 88%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
88.7%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 35Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+14
88.6%
Joe Mixon run for 14 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
88.7%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
88.6%
Baker Mayfield run for no gain to the Okla 49Similar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+14
88.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jarvis Baxter for 14 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
88.4%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
88.4%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Sterling ShepardSimilar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-15
88.3%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Sterling Shepard OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Orlando Brown) to the TCU 48Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 21
OPP 48
0
88.0%
Austin Seibert punt for 45 yds, downed at the TCU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 97 yds · 1:3612% → 14%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+44
88.0%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 44 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
87.8%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 7
50
+1
87.5%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 1 yd to the Okla 49Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+9
87.4%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 9 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
87.3%
Foster Sawyer run for 3 yds to the Okla 37Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+37
86.3%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 37 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:2387% → 86%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
86.5%
Samaje Perine run for 20 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
86.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Michiah Quick for 4 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-3
86.3%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Denzel Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 49Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
85.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Samaje PerineSimilar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
85.6%
Austin Seibert punt for 42 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:5815% → 16%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
85.5%
KaVontae Turpin run for 2 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+7
85.2%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 7 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+3
85.0%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
84.8%
Shaun Nixon run for no gain to the TCU 21Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
84.5%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 2 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 8
OWN 23
-1
84.1%
Foster Sawyer sacked by Charles Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 22Similar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
84.1%
Ethan Perry punt for 49 yds, downed at the Okla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1484% → 83%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
83.6%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Corry O'Meally and Josh Carraway for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 27Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+9
83.3%
Samaje Perine run for 9 yds to the Okla 36Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 3
OWN 36
-1
83.3%
Baker Mayfield run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 35Similar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
82.5%
Austin Seibert punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:4818% → 19%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
82.1%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+3
81.7%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 3 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
81.2%
Foster Sawyer pass intercepted Zack Sanchez return for no gain to the TCU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:0883% → 86%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
82.5%
Joe Mixon run for no gain to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+11
82.2%
Joe Mixon run for 11 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
82.5%
Joe Mixon run for 10 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
82.8%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the TCU 21Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+21
85.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 21 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3116% → 16%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.0%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.0%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
84.0%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+48
84.3%
Ethan Perry punt for 48 yds , Sterling Shepard returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:1484% → 84%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
84.4%
Baker Mayfield run for 12 yds to the Okla 34 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Dede Westbrook) to the Okla 19Similar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 13
OWN 19
+7
84.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Durron Neal for 7 yds to the Okla 26Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+10
84.3%
Joe Mixon run for 10 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+30
84.4%
Baker Mayfield run for 30 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
85.2%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Josh Carraway for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 40 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (Ty Summers) to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
85.1%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-1
85.0%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 26Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+8
84.3%
Baker Mayfield run for 8 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
84.4%
Austin Seibert 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
83.7%
Foster Sawyer pass intercepted Zack Sanchez return for no gain to the Okla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 4:3384% → 85%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
84.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 15 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
84.4%
Joe Mixon run for 13 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
84.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Sterling ShepardSimilar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
84.4%
Samaje Perine run for 11 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
84.5%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
84.4%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+3
83.7%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
83.4%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
84.3%
Mayfield, Baker rush for 6 yards to the TCU3, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Brown, Orlando) 10 yards to the TCU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
0
84.1%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Sterling ShepardSimilar
Q2 6:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
0
83.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+4
82.9%
Joe Mixon run for 4 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q2 6:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
85.1%
Austin Seibert 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:2015% → 15%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
85.3%
Aaron Green run for 11 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
85.0%
Trevorris Johnson run for 8 yds to the TCU 37 Trevorris Johnson fumbled, forced by Charles Tapper, recovered by Okla Charles Tapper , return for 1 yd to the TCU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 37 yds · 0:2487% → 91%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
86.7%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+36
90.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 36 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:1010% → 11%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
89.9%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
90.1%
Aaron Green run for 6 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+8
89.4%
Shaun Nixon run for 8 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
89.2%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Zack Sanchez) to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
88.5%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
88.3%
Foster Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+3
88.4%
Foster Sawyer run for 3 yds to the Okla 42Similar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
88.6%
Ethan Perry punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16END OF HALF
14 plays · 66 yds · 2:4089% → 93%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
89.0%
Baker Mayfield run for no gain to the Okla 14Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+11
89.0%
Samaje Perine run for 11 yds to the Okla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 8 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
89.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
89.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 7 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
90.0%
Samaje Perine run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
50
+4
90.2%
Baker Mayfield run for 4 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+11
91.1%
Dede Westbrook run for 11 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
91.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 15 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
91.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
91.2%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
90.7%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Joe MixonSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
92.6%
Austin Seibert 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 7 yds · 1:5692% → 92%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
91.9%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 20Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+2
91.9%
Trevor Knight run for 2 yds to the Okla 22Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+16
91.6%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Samaje Perine for 16 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
92.0%
Joe Mixon run for 1 yd to the Okla 39Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
92.0%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+2
92.5%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 7
OWN 41
-15
92.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 15 yards to the Okla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
1 play · 26 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
86.3%
Aaron Green run for 26 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19MISSED FG
7 plays · 53 yds · 1:2589% → 88%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
88.5%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 26 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+25
89.1%
Joe Mixon run for 25 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
89.6%
Daniel Brooks run for 2 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
89.8%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
89.1%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Sterling ShepardSimilar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
88.4%
Austin Seibert 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2012% → 11%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
88.4%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
88.2%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Shaun NixonSimilar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
88.7%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
89.1%
Ethan Perry punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:4789% → 87%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
88.5%
Trevor Knight run for 1 yd to the Okla 29Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-7
88.5%
Trevor Knight sacked by Josh Carraway for a loss of 7 yards to the Okla 22Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 16
OWN 22
0
87.7%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Jarvis BaxterSimilar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 16
OWN 22
0
87.3%
Austin Seibert punt for 39 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22INT
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:1812% → 13%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
87.9%
Aaron Green run for 6 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jordan Wade) to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
87.3%
Foster Sawyer pass intercepted Ahmad Thomas return for no gain to the Okla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 92 yds · 1:0588% → 96%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
88.2%
Daniel Brooks run for 3 yds to the Okla 11Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+17
88.1%
Trevor Knight run for 17 yds to the Okla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
95.5%
Samaje Perine run for 72 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:207% → 6%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
93.4%
Aaron Green run for 7 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
93.8%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 1
OWN 38
0
93.9%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the TCU 38Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
94.4%
Ethan Perry punt for 55 yds, downed at the Okla 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:5896% → 95%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+13
95.6%
Samaje Perine run for 13 yds to the Okla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
95.8%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 21Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
95.8%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Jeffery MeadSimilar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
95.7%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
95.4%
Austin Seibert punt for 34 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:165% → 5%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
94.6%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
94.9%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+7
95.2%
Foster Sawyer run for 7 yds to the Okla 47Similar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
95.0%
Ethan Perry punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1796% → 96%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
96.0%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Okla 13Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
96.1%
Samaje Perine run for no gain to the Okla 13Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
96.2%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
95.9%
Austin Seibert punt for 41 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:085% → 4%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
95.3%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Aaron Green for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+2
95.4%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
95.6%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Shaun NixonSimilar
Q3 0:52
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
95.8%
Ethan Perry punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the Okla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:3496% → 97%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+32
96.4%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 32 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
96.7%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-3
96.9%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 8
50
0
97.1%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Samaje PerineSimilar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 8
50
0
96.9%
Austin Seibert punt for 39 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:153% → 3%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
96.6%
Shaun Nixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 9Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 12
OWN 9
-4
96.8%
Hicks, Kyle rush for 8 yards to the TCU17, PENALTY TCU illegal formation 4 yards to the TCU5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 16
OWN 5
0
96.9%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 16
OWN 5
0
96.9%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 16
OWN 5
0
97.0%
Ethan Perry punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Sterling Shepard at the TCU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 31PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 3:2898% → 98%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
97.5%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Michiah QuickSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
97.5%
Samaje Perine run for 6 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
97.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 5 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
98.0%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+4
98.0%
Trevor Knight run for 4 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 4
OPP 31
-3
98.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Sterling Shepard for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 7
OPP 34
-5
97.8%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TCU 39Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 12
OPP 39
0
97.9%
Austin Seibert punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 32TD
1 play · 86 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+86
93.7%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 86 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 33INT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:1493% → 93%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.7%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 26Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
93.3%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Sterling ShepardSimilar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
93.1%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (Orlando Brown) to the Okla 21Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
93.1%
Trevor Knight pass intercepted Derrick Kindred return for no gain to the Okla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 34FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:348% → 12%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
92.0%
Aaron Green run for 13 yds to the Okla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
91.9%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
92.1%
Aaron Green run for 6 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+1
91.9%
Shaun Nixon run for 1 yd to the Okla 26Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+43
87.9%
Jaden Oberkrom 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 35PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5691% → 92%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.2%
Trevor Knight run for 2 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
91.3%
Samaje Perine run for 6 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
91.2%
Samaje Perine run for no gain to the Okla 33Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
92.1%
Austin Seibert punt for 43 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 36TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 3:269% → 41%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
90.7%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 19Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+14
91.5%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 14 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
89.8%
Bram Kohlhausen run for 2 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
89.7%
Aaron Green run for 24 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
87.2%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
87.3%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+8
87.8%
Bram Kohlhausen run for 8 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
85.1%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 9 yds to the Okla 22Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+6
83.5%
Aaron Green run for 6 yds to the Okla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
83.6%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the Okla 14Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
85.1%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Kyle HicksSimilar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+14
59.5%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 14 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 37END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:2079% → 83%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
79.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 36Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 12
OWN 36
-2
83.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:51
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 14 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-25.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+16.7
TD · Q3 7:55
Samaje Perine run for 72 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com