2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:31 · Matthew Wyman punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:33: Rushel Shell run for 26 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK) — WVU win probability +0.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 13:31: Taylor Cox run for no gain to the Kans 10 — WVU win probability +0.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:05: Skyler Howard pass complete to Cody Clay for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK) — WVU win probability +0.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:37: Skyler Howard run for 9 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK) — WVU win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:04: Wendell Smallwood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK) — WVU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 9 of 13WVU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 15:00WVU 4th & 14 at WVU 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snapGo for it94.9%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.0%average punt
- Q1 11:09KU 4th & 8 at KU 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q1 7:28KU 4th & 17 at KU 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it4.9%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.2%average punt
- Q1 3:20KU 4th & 3 at KU 37, down 28Close callPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00KU 4th & 5 at KU 44, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.7%average punt
- Q2 14:49WVU 4th & 5 at WVU 25, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.9%average punt
- Q2 13:31KU 4th & 5 at KU 15, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snapGo for it3.3%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q2 9:57KU 4th & 1 at KU 39, down 35Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 5:30KU 4th & 13 at KU 5, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q2 1:14WVU 4th & 10 at KU 24, up 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.9%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call98.0%68% to makePunt97.7%−0.3average punt
- Q2 1:14KU 4th & 13 at KU 21, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q3 14:52KU 4th & 2 at KU 37, down 42Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 9:56KU 4th & 18 at WVU 36, down 49Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%−0.113% to convertField goal0.5%42% to makePunt0.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 6:28WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 36, up 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%average punt
- Q3 5:03KU 4th & 9 at KU 21, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 4:11WVU 4th & 4 at KU 20, up 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.2%47% to convertField goal99.2%−<0.175% to makePunt98.8%−0.4average punt
- Q4 13:21WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 34, up 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 11:22KU 4th & 9 at KU 11, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 10:21WVU 4th & 5 at KU 44, up 49Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%41% to convertField goal99.6%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call99.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:52KU 4th & 3 at KU 33, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 11:34WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 11:15WVU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.4%97% to makeGo for two94.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:33WVU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.7%97% to makeGo for two94.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:26WVU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:05WVU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:37WVU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:04WVU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
KUDrive 2FUMBLE2 plays · 29 yds · 0:005% → 5%
WVUDrive 3TD5 plays · 63 yds · 1:4095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4INT TD3 plays · 0 yds · 0:135% → 5%
KUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
WVUDrive 6TD8 plays · 76 yds · 2:4495% → 96%
Q1 10:17
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+14
4.7%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 14 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
4.2%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 3 yds to the Kans 28 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-8
4.3%
Ryan Willis sacked by Christian Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the Kans 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2396% → 96%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
4.2%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 10 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+16
4.2%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 16 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+4
4.2%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 4 yds to the Kans 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
4.2%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Skyler Howard, broken up by Derrick NealSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 3:20
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+7
3.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Ke'aun Kinner for 7 yds to the Kans 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10INT5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
KUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:394% → 4%
Q1 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
4.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 5 yds Tyler Patrick fumbled, forced by Daryl Worley,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
4.4%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Rushel Shell for 4 yds to the WVirg 24Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+2
4.7%
Nick O'Toole punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kans 10 , Tre' Parmalee returns for 2 yds to the Kans 27 KANSAS Penalty, illegal block (12 Yards) to the Kans 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
WVUDrive 14TD5 plays · 50 yds · 1:2796% → 97%
Q2 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.0%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Cody Clay for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
2.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 7 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
2.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre' Parmalee, broken up by Shaq PettewaySimilar
Q2 9:57
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+1
2.6%
Matthew Wyman punt for 37 yds , Gary Jennings returns for 1 yd to the WVirg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2597% → 98%
Q2 9:02
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
3.0%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 13 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+12
2.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 12 yds to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+9
2.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 9 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
2.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Shelton Gibson for 9 yds to the Kans 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-6
1.4%
Ryan Willis sacked by Kyle Rose for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18MISSED FG7 plays · 15 yds · 2:5199% → 98%
KUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
KUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
WVUDrive 21TD11 plays · 72 yds · 4:0399% → 99%
KUDrive 22DOWNS11 plays · 38 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
0.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Jeremiah Booker, broken up by Ricky RumphSimilar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+27
0.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Kent Taylor for 27 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
0.5%
Ryan Willis sacked by Kyle Rose for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+15
0.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 15 yds to the WVirg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
0.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Ke'aun Kinner for 2 yds to the WVirg 26Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
0.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre' Parmalee, broken up by KJ DillonSimilar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 8
OPP 26
-10
0.5%
Willis,Ryan pass complete to Sims,Steven for 9 yards to the WVU17, out-of-bounds, PENALTY KU holding (Hughes,Larry) 10 yards to the WVU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 18
OPP 36
0
0.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tyler Patrick, broken up by Dravon Askew-HenrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 6:28
4TH & 5
OWN 41
-5
0.8%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Edward Muldrow) to the WVirg 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:03
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
0.3%
Matthew Wyman punt for 42 yds , Jovon Durante returns for no gain to the WVirg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 25DOWNS8 plays · 43 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q3 4:11
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+15
0.5%
KANSAS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Kans 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 26INT9 plays · 40 yds · 2:570% → 0%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
0.2%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre' Parmalee, broken up by Jeremy TylerSimilar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+12
0.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 12 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
0.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Ke'aun Kinner for 3 yds to the Kans 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+12
0.2%
Willis,Ryan pass incomplete to Taylor,Kent, PENALTY WVU pass interference (Preston, Xavier) 12 yards to the WVU46, 1ST DOWN KU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
0.1%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted Rasul Douglas return for no gain to the WVirg 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 27PUNT6 plays · 33 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
KUDrive 28PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:22
4TH & 9
OWN 11
+6
0.1%
Matthew Wyman punt for 44 yds , Gary Jennings returns for 6 yds to the Kans 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 29PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 30INT7 plays · 58 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:48
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
0.1%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted, touchback. Nana Kyeremeh return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 31PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:52
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
0.1%
Matthew Wyman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jovon Durante at the WVirg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 32END OF GAME3 plays · 32 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
0.1%
William Crest Jr. pass complete to Ricky Rogers for 6 yds to the Kans 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 33INT4 plays · 53 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:37
Skyler Howard run for 9 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)
-1.1
KEY PLAY · Q2 13:31
Taylor Cox run for no gain to the Kans 10
-0.8
TD · Q2 10:05
Skyler Howard pass complete to Cody Clay for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)
-0.7