Try the model
KU

Kansas 17 at TCU 23

TCU
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:19 · Ethan Perry punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tre' Parmalee at the Kans 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 191Pregame prior+11.8Home team on offense+15.3Garbage-time factor+9.8Score differential+2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:29: Taylor Cox run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK) — KU win probability +1.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:51: Foster Sawyer pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 42 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +6.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 9:51: Jaden Oberkrom 36 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +3.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:19: Ryan Willis pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK) — KU win probability +14.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:54: Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the TCU 46 — TCU win probability +10.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12KU made the numbers' call on 11 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00KU 4th & 12 at KU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:48TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:45KU 4th & 8 at KU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:50KU 4th & 17 at TCU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:05TCU 4th & 5 at KU 25, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:34KU 4th & 6 at TCU 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:34TCU 4th & 13 at TCU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:29TCU 4th & 8 at KU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:33KU 4th & 12 at KU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:44TCU 4th & 1 at KU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%−0.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:28KU 4th & 2 at KU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.3
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:41KU 4th & 7 at KU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:58TCU 4th & 14 at TCU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:48KU 4th & 8 at KU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:01TCU 4th & 7 at KU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−5.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:01KU 4th & 2 at KU 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00TCU 4th & 3 at KU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    84.9%−0.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−8.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:10KU 4th & 1 at KU 16, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%−1.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:51KU 4th & 10 at KU 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:51TCU 4th & 7 at KU 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    90.2%−2.8
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:19KU 4th & 5 at TCU 10, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−2.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:19TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 34, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%−1.5
    average punt
  23. Q4 4:50KU 4th & 10 at KU 26, down 6
    Close callPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%−0.4
    average punt
  24. Q4 4:36TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 21, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−3.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  25. Q4 2:01TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 48, up 6
    Close callPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−0.1
    average punt
  26. Q4 1:54KU 4th & 7 at KU 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1KU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 11:29KU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 11:51TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:19KU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.4%
Taylor Cox run for 3 yds to the Kans 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+8
99.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 8 yds to the Kans 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
99.4%
Tre' Parmalee run for 3 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
99.4%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-5
99.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Kans 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
99.4%
Matthew Wyman punt for 37 yds, downed at the TCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
99.3%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+3
99.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 3 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+4
99.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 4 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
99.3%
Ethan Perry punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tre' Parmalee at the Kans 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:271% → 1%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.2%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+3
99.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 3 yds to the Kans 19Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 7
OWN 19
-1
99.2%
Ryan Willis sacked by Aaron Curry for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 18Similar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 8
OWN 18
+49
99.1%
Matthew Wyman punt for 31 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 49 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 1:551% → 1%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.1%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 3 yds to the Kans 28Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+30
99.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Ben Johnson for 30 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
99.1%
Ke'aun Kinner run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 12
OPP 44
0
99.1%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+5
99.1%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 5 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 7
OPP 39
-5
99.0%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 12
OPP 44
-5
99.0%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 17
OPP 49
0
99.0%
Matthew Wyman punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:3699% → 99%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.0%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the TCU 20Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 9 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
99.0%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.0%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
99.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 6 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+30
99.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 30 yds to the Kans 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.1%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the Kans 25Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
99.1%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kyle HicksSimilar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
99.1%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Shaun NixonSimilar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
98.9%
Jaden Oberkrom 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6FG
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:311% → 1%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
98.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 7 yds to the Kans 16Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+43
98.9%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 43 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
98.9%
Taylor Cox run for 3 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+10
98.9%
Taylor Cox run for 10 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
98.8%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 4 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
98.8%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
98.9%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
98.6%
Matthew Wyman 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.7%
Aaron Green run for 6 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
98.7%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
98.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Aaron Green for 5 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.7%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
98.7%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-4
98.7%
Trevone Boykin sacked by Damani Mosby for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 33Similar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+14
98.6%
Ethan Perry punt for 51 yds , Tre' Parmalee returns for 14 yds to the Kans 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:312% → 3%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
98.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 6 yds to the Kans 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+6
98.4%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 6 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
98.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre' Parmalee, broken up by Terrell LathanSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-5
98.4%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kans 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+20
98.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 20 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
98.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 11 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
98.3%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 1 yd to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+8
98.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 8 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
98.3%
Taylor Cox run for 3 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
98.3%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 2 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+15
98.3%
Willis,Ryan pass incomplete to Hartzog,Bobby, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Orr, Nick) 15 yards to the TCU3, 1ST DOWN KU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.0%
Taylor Cox run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9PUNT
13 plays · 39 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
97.5%
KaVontae Turpin run for 7 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 3
OWN 30
0
97.6%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Shaun NixonSimilar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+5
97.5%
Bram Kohlhausen run for 5 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
97.5%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 7 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+6
97.7%
Aaron Green run for 6 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.7%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
97.6%
Aaron Green run for 8 yds to the Kans 44Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+4
97.7%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 4 yds to the Kans 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
97.7%
Bram Kohlhausen run for 6 yds to the Kans 34Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 4
OPP 34
-4
97.8%
Bram Kohlhausen sacked by Ben Goodman for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 38Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
97.7%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to KaVontae Turpin, broken up by Marnez OgletreeSimilar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
97.5%
Ethan Perry punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Tre' Parmalee at the Kans 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
96.2%
Ke'aun Kinner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 9Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 13
OWN 9
+40
96.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 40 yds to the Kans 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
95.8%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kans 44Similar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+7
96.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 7 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
95.8%
Ke'aun Kinner run for no gain to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-4
95.9%
Ryan Willis sacked by Aaron Curry for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 47Similar
Q2 7:33
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
96.3%
Matthew Wyman punt for 44 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for no gain to the TCU 4 KaVontae Turpin fumbled, recovered by TCU KaVontae TurpinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11DOWNS
12 plays · 84 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
95.8%
Hicks, Kyle rush for 1 yard to the TCU5 (Roberts,M.), PENALTY TCU holding (Thompson, B.) 2 yards to the TCU2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 12
OWN 2
0
95.8%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Shaun NixonSimilar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 12
OWN 2
+18
95.8%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 18 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
95.9%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 8 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+23
96.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 23 yds to the Kans 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
96.3%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the Kans 49Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+14
96.2%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Aaron Green for 14 yds to the Kans 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
96.4%
Aaron Green run for 14 yds to the Kans 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
96.4%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the Kans 20Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+7
96.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds to the Kans 13Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+1
96.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the Kans 12Similar
Q2 4:44
4TH & 1
OPP 12
0
96.1%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the Kans 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:216% → 7%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
93.6%
Taylor Cox run for 3 yds to the Kans 15Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 7
OWN 15
-1
93.2%
Ke'aun Kinner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 14Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+6
93.4%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 6 yds to the Kans 20Similar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
93.5%
Matthew Wyman punt for 47 yds, downed at the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
93.8%
Aaron Green run for 10 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
94.3%
Aaron Green run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14INT
11 plays · 52 yds · 0:0094% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.8%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
93.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
93.5%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 16 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
94.4%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 9 yds to the Kans 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+2
94.6%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the Kans 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
94.6%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Josh Doctson for 12 yds to the Kans 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
94.7%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 3 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+17
94.7%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 17 yds to the Kans 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
94.7%
Johnson, T. rush for 10 yards to the KU3, out-of-bounds (Ogletree,Marnez), PENALTY TCU holding (Morris, Patrick) 10 yards to the KU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+22
94.6%
Bram Kohlhausen pass intercepted Fish Smithson return for 22 yds to the Kans 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
90.7%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (Jacob Bragg) to the Kans 27Similar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+8
91.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 8 yds to the Kans 35Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
90.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 2 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-2
90.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 35Similar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+1
91.6%
Matthew Wyman punt for 47 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 1 yd to the TCU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
90.9%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 18Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 11
OWN 18
-3
90.7%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to Aaron Green for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 15Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 14
OWN 15
0
90.2%
Bram Kohlhausen pass incomplete to Kyle HicksSimilar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 14
OWN 15
-2
90.0%
Ethan Perry punt for 55 yds , Tre' Parmalee returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
88.7%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre' Parmalee, broken up by Denzel JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-3
89.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 25Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+5
89.5%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 5 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q3 8:48
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
89.8%
Matthew Wyman punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:2389% → 90%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.1%
Aaron Green run for 8 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
89.9%
Aaron Green run for 11 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
90.3%
Aaron Green run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 4
50
+9
90.6%
Foster Sawyer run for 9 yds to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
90.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 17 yds to the Kans 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
91.0%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
91.0%
Foster Sawyer run for 3 yds to the Kans 21Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
90.5%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q3 5:01
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
90.2%
Jaden Oberkrom 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 6 yds to the Kans 31Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
88.3%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 2 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
88.7%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr., broken up by Ty SummersSimilar
Q3 5:01
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
89.4%
Matthew Wyman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20DOWNS
13 plays · 66 yds · 3:4489% → 87%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
89.0%
Foster Sawyer run for 7 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
89.7%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+10
89.4%
Aaron Green run for 10 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
90.2%
Aaron Green run for 7 yds to the Kans 47Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+5
90.5%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
90.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+15
90.5%
Sawyer, Foster pass incomplete to Porter, Emanuel, PENALTY KU pass interference (Ogletree,Marnez) 15 yards to the KU25, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
90.9%
Foster Sawyer run for 9 yds to the Kans 16Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+2
90.9%
Foster Sawyer run for 2 yds to the Kans 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
90.9%
Bram Kohlhausen pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 6 yds to the Kans 8Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+2
90.9%
Foster Sawyer run for 2 yds to the Kans 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
-1
87.8%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 7Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 7
0
86.6%
Foster Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
86.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 7 yds to the Kans 14Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 3
OWN 14
0
85.9%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+2
86.8%
Taylor Cox run for 2 yds to the Kans 16Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
87.3%
Matthew Wyman punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:5688% → 95%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
87.7%
Kolby Listenbee run for 11 yds to the Kans 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
88.3%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the Kans 42Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+42
94.5%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 42 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
93.3%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Bobby Hartzog Jr., broken up by Torrance MosleySimilar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
93.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tyler Patrick, broken up by Nick OrrSimilar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
93.9%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 10
OWN 26
-2
94.3%
Matthew Wyman punt for 42 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24FG
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:3294% → 97%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+48
93.7%
Aaron Green run for 48 yds to the Kans 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
94.4%
Trevorris Johnson run for 3 yds to the Kans 19Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
94.0%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Josh Doctson, broken up by Michael GlatczakSimilar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
93.7%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Shaun NixonSimilar
Q4 9:51
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+36
97.3%
Jaden Oberkrom 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 25TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 3:324% → 20%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
95.7%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre' Parmalee, broken up by Nick OrrSimilar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
95.7%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+23
95.8%
Ryan Willis run for 23 yds to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
94.9%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 1 yd to the Kans 47Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+7
94.8%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 7 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-5
94.8%
Willis,Ryan pass complete to Johnson,Ben for 10 yards to the TCU36 (Kindred, D.), PENALTY KU IR (Bragg,Jacob) 5 yards to the KU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+36
94.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 36 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
94.1%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 1 yd to the TCU 14Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+4
94.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 4 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
94.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre' Parmalee, broken up by Torrance MosleySimilar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+10
80.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.4%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
90.4%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
89.7%
Foster Sawyer run for 6 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
89.7%
Ethan Perry punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tre' Parmalee at the Kans 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1117% → 10%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
83.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
84.2%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Jeremiah BookerSimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
88.9%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
89.6%
Matthew Wyman punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0092% → 90%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
91.9%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
91.8%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-4
91.4%
Foster Sawyer sacked by Joe Dineen Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 21Similar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
90.4%
Ethan Perry punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tre' Parmalee at the Kans 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 29INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
83.9%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted Ty Summers return for 12 yds to the TCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 30PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5394% → 95%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
94.3%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+4
94.2%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 5
50
-2
95.4%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 48Similar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
94.8%
Ethan Perry punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tre' Parmalee at the Kans 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 31DOWNS
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
91.2%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre' Parmalee, broken up by Denzel JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
91.5%
Matthew Wyman run for 3 yds to the Kans 20Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
91.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Bobby Hartzog Jr.Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 7
OWN 20
-10
92.1%
Ryan Willis sacked by Terrell Lathan for a loss of 10 yards to the Kans 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 14Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-4
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:19
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)
-14.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:54
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the TCU 46
+10.5
TD · Q4 11:51
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 42 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)
+6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com