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OKST

Oklahoma State 35 at Iowa State 31

ISU
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:24 · Zach Sinor punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Pregame prior−28.8Home team on offense+1.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:29: Joshua Thomas 1 Yd Run (Cole Netten Kick) — ISU win probability +15.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:44: J.W. Walsh 1 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick) — OKST win probability +20.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 2:04: Joel Lanning 21 Yd Run (Cole Netten Kick) — ISU win probability +20.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:33: J.W. Walsh 16 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick) — OKST win probability +22.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 3:06: Jeff Carr 7 Yd pass from J.W. Walsh (Ben Grogan Kick) — OKST win probability +42.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 5:24OKST 4th & 18 at OKST 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:04ISU 4th & 2 at OKST 3, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.8%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−2.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:22OKST 4th & 10 at ISU 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−4.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:54ISU 4th & 11 at ISU 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:24OKST 4th & 1 at ISU 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−4.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−5.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:52ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.6%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:32ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−2.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:51OKST 4th & 9 at OKST 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:11ISU 4th & 15 at ISU 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−3.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:00ISU 4th & 5 at midfield, up 3
    Close callPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:05ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.9%−10.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:44OKST 4th & 11 at ISU 38, up 4
    Close callPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:10ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:44OKST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:58ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:29ISU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:14OKST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:44OKST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:04ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:33OKST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:06OKST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2518% → 19%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
18.1%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 9 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
18.2%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
18.3%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
18.5%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+37
18.8%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Quenton Bundrage for 37 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
19.4%
Joel Lanning 24 Yd Run (Cole Netten Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 3:0681% → 80%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+22
19.5%
Raymond Taylor run for 22 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
19.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 7 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 48
-6
19.9%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Demond Tucker for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 42 Mason Rudolph fumbled, forced by Demond Tucker, recovered by OKSt Mason Rudolph , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+15
20.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 15 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
20.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 2 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+23
20.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 23 yds to the IowSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
20.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris CarsonSimilar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
21.2%
Chris Carson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 16Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+16
20.2%
Marcell Ateman 16 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 94 yds · 2:0221% → 25%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+22
20.8%
Mike Warren run for 22 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
21.0%
Joel Lanning run for 9 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+14
21.7%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Joshua Thomas for 14 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
22.1%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+23
22.4%
Joel Lanning run for 23 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
24.9%
Allen Lazard 24 Yd pass from Joel Lanning (Cole Netten Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:2176% → 74%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
24.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-3
24.6%
Raymond Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 13
OWN 26
-5
25.3%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (James Washington) to the OKSt 21Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 18
OWN 21
0
25.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris CarsonSimilar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 18
OWN 21
0
26.1%
Zach Sinor punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5FG
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:5627% → 29%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
26.7%
Joshua Thomas run for 5 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+40
27.2%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 40 yds to the OKSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
27.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Mike Warren for 4 yds to the OKSt 7Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+4
28.4%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the OKSt 3Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 2
OPP 3
0
28.4%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Trever RyenSimilar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+21
28.6%
Cole Netten 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6MISSED FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 4:2372% → 67%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
28.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 8 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+21
28.5%
Chris Carson run for 21 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
28.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 12 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
28.5%
Brandon Sheperd run for 2 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+8
28.5%
Brandon Sheperd run for 8 yds to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
28.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
29.2%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Rennie Childs for 9 yds to the IowSt 13Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
30.1%
J.W. Walsh run for 2 yds to the IowSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
29.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-3
29.8%
J.W. Walsh run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 14Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+3
32.4%
Mason Rudolph run for 3 yds to the IowSt 11Similar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
33.3%
Ben Grogan 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:3134% → 54%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
33.6%
Joshua Thomas run for 6 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
34.0%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
34.3%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Brett MeddersSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
34.4%
Joel Lanning run for 6 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+22
35.4%
Joel Lanning run for 22 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
37.2%
Mike Warren run for 18 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
37.7%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the OKSt 23 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Face Mask (11 yards) (Eric Davis) to the OKSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
38.4%
Joshua Thomas run for 3 yds to the OKSt 9Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+6
39.0%
Joshua Thomas run for 6 yds to the OKSt 3Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
38.4%
Joel Lanning run for 2 yds to the OKSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.2%
Joshua Thomas 1 Yd Run (Cole Netten Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8TD
19 plays · 88 yds · 7:0449% → 54%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
50.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 12 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
51.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 8 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+1
50.7%
Raymond Taylor run for 1 yd to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+9
51.4%
J.W. Walsh run for 9 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
51.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
52.8%
Marcell Ateman run for 1 yd to the OKSt 43Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+10
54.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 10 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
53.3%
Raymond Taylor run for 4 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+8
53.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 8 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
53.7%
Mason Rudolph run for 6 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+10
53.7%
Chris Carson run for 10 yds to the IowSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
54.3%
Chris Carson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 17Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
55.2%
J.W. Walsh run for no gain to the IowSt 17Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 8
OPP 17
-5
58.0%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 22Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 13
OPP 22
+20
59.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 20 yds to the IowSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
57.8%
J.W. Walsh run for 1 yd to the IowSt 1Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.5%
Chris Carson 1 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:0652% → 52%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
51.7%
Trever Ryen run for 17 yds to the IowSt 43 Trever Ryen fumbled, recovered by IowSt Allen Lazard for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
53.9%
Joel Lanning run for 3 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
54.8%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Quenton BundrageSimilar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
52.0%
Colin Downing punt for 51 yds, downed at the OKSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:2044% → 45%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
55.6%
Chris Carson run for 6 yds to the OKSt 13Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 13
-1
55.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11TD
15 plays · 92 yds · 6:0648% → 61%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
52.0%
Raymond Taylor run for 7 yds to the OKSt 15Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 3
OWN 15
-3
55.0%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Demond Tucker for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 12Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+11
56.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 11 yds to the OKSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
55.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 22 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
54.3%
Raymond Taylor run for 4 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+7
54.1%
Chris Carson run for 7 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
54.4%
Mason Rudolph run for 7 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
54.4%
Jeff Carr run for 2 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
55.2%
J.W. Walsh run for no gain to the IowSt 35Similar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+3
58.0%
J.W. Walsh run for 3 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
55.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-1
56.2%
Raymond Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+32
59.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 32 yds to the IowSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.0%
J.W. Walsh 1 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 4:3847% → 49%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
46.9%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 21
-10
47.1%
IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (D'Vario Montgomery) to the IowSt 11Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+11
47.0%
Joel Lanning run for 11 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+10
46.5%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 10 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
49.0%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
51.4%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
51.4%
Mike Warren run for no gain to the IowSt 41Similar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+3
49.5%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
53.2%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
52.3%
Mike Warren run for no gain to the IowSt 44Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
50.6%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
49.0%
Colin Downing punt for 32 yds, downed at the OKSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:3250% → 50%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
49.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+11
50.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 11 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
50.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 3 yds Blake Jarwin fumbled, forced by Levi Peters, recovered by IowSt Levi PetersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 0:4456% → 74%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
56.0%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Quenton BundrageSimilar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
55.8%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+17
54.6%
Joel Lanning run for 17 yds to the OKSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
75.5%
Joel Lanning 21 Yd Run (Cole Netten Kick)Similar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
73.7%
IOWA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Allen Lazard) to the IowSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0130% → 25%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
70.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
71.0%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 37Similar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
73.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 0:51
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+13
75.0%
Zach Sinor punt for 45 yds , Trever Ryen returns for 13 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1976% → 74%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
75.7%
Joel Lanning pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 2 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
76.8%
Joshua Thomas run for no gain to the IowSt 33Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-7
76.0%
Joel Lanning sacked by Emmanuel Ogbah for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
74.1%
Colin Downing punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:1725% → 49%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
75.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 7 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+11
73.5%
Chris Carson run for 11 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
73.7%
Raymond Taylor run for 6 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 4
OPP 34
-2
72.4%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Dale Pierson for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+8
75.4%
Chris Carson run for 8 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
73.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 12 yds to the IowSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
73.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
50.6%
J.W. Walsh 16 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:2262% → 66%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
62.3%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
63.2%
Trever Ryen run for 6 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+13
63.0%
Joel Lanning pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 13 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
67.3%
Joshua Thomas run for 2 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
68.3%
Joel Lanning run for 2 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+1
67.6%
Joel Lanning run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 5
50
0
66.3%
Colin Downing punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 4:4639% → 87%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+19
61.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 19 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
60.4%
Chris Carson run for no gain to the OKSt 35 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Brad Lundblade) to the OKSt 20Similar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 25
OWN 20
0
61.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Brandon SheperdSimilar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 25
OWN 20
+15
61.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 15 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-5
62.5%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Victor Salako) to the OKSt 30Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+31
63.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 31 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
55.7%
Raymond Taylor run for 1 yd to the IowSt 38Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+7
56.8%
Mason Rudolph run for 7 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+13
56.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 13 yds to the IowSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
54.9%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 17Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+10
55.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Carson for 10 yds to the IowSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
12.9%
Jeff Carr 7 Yd pass from J.W. Walsh (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4028% → 26%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
28.4%
Joel Lanning pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 8 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+1
30.2%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Carson Epps for 1 yd to the IowSt 37Similar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
29.0%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
25.7%
Mike Warren run for no gain to the IowSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:1788% → 90%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
11.6%
J.W. Walsh run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 41Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+1
9.0%
J.W. Walsh run for 1 yd to the IowSt 40Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+2
9.6%
J.W. Walsh run for 2 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
9.9%
Zach Sinor punt for 33 yds, downed at the IowSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
18.3%
Joel Lanning pass intercepted Jordan Sterns return for 5 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -9 yds · 1:0595% → 96%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 25Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-4
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 29Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 29
-4
4.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:06
Jeff Carr 7 Yd pass from J.W. Walsh (Ben Grogan Kick)
-42.8
TD · Q4 11:33
J.W. Walsh 16 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)
-22.8
TD · Q3 2:04
Joel Lanning 21 Yd Run (Cole Netten Kick)
+20.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com